The PLAYERS Championship is often referred to as the PGA Tour’s fifth major, and rightfully so. This week, 47 of the world’s top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings list make their way to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Verda Beach, Florida for a tremendous test of their all-around game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This traditional par 72 layout forces the field to be dialed in up and down the bag in order to have a chance to win come Sunday afternoon. Play your best for four days, and you’ll have a shot. There’s not one particular type of player or skill set that wins at TPC Sawgrass more than others, so for handicapping purposes, we’re taking a highly variant sport and adding another level of unpredictability to it. Oh, and this week, the weather will be a massive factor as well. Fun! I’m not going to pretend to play the role of meteorologist a couple days out from the first tee time, but the early forecast is not pretty, with wind and rain prevalent throughout the event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This Pete Dye-designed layout brings water into play on 17 of the 18 holes and features numerous doglegs that limit a bomber’s advantage off the tee. Avoiding the water, and the crooked numbers that come with it, are keys to success this week. Driving accuracy is a common denominator when looking at past leaderboards for this event, as it is at other Pete Dye tracks like Harbour Town, TPC River Highlands, and Stadium West, but this event moving from May to March (which happened in 2019) throws a wet blanket on that narrative a bit, in my opinion. Not only are the greens softer at this time of year, but the grabby nature of bermudagrass rough is mitigated a skosh in March due to the overseeding necessary at this time of year. Missing the fairway or green is never ideal, but it’s less penial than it used to be because the unpredictable nature of the lie caused by the bermudagrass has decreased with the overseeding that March brings to a Florida golf course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As we saw last year with Justin Thomas, who barely made the cut on Friday and then stormed the leaderboard on Saturday and Sunday, low rounds can be had here. Knowing when and where to be aggressive for scoring opportunities goes a long way. You also have to be comfortable eating your vegetables on this course, accepting that par is a good score on most holes, and moving along.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Florida State alum is coming off of a tough fourth-round showing at the Honda two weeks back, but I believe that’ll be more motivation than a deterrent for Berger here this week. Regardless of whether you’re looking at the past six months or past 20 rounds, Berger pops inside the top 10 in strokes gained approach, tee-to-green, and ball-striking. He’s also terrific around the green, a key skill this week with Sawgrass’s small greens and lower-than-average greens in regulation numbers. Berger’s putter has been less consistent than usual so far in 2022, but he’s familiar and comfortable on Florida Bermudagrass. I took him at +4100 on FanDuel<\/a> in the early market, and think he’s still a tremendous buy at 34\/1, which is FanDuel<\/a>‘s current price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A case can be made that Hideki Matsuyama is the one player who benefits most by having this event played in March instead of May. A week at TPC Sawgrass in May plays like a traditional Florida course with Bermudagrass greens and Matsuyama’s track record when that’s the setup is far from elite. As I mentioned above, overseeding is necessary here in March, and that changes the dynamic quite drastically. The greens will run smooth and fast this week, similar to Augusta National and Scottsdale, two places where Hideki has thrived of late. He’s a terrific ball-striker and astute around the greens, ranking ninth in this field in total strokes gained over his last 24 rounds. He’s available at +700 on BetRivers<\/a> to finish inside the top 5 and is worth a look as an outright north of 30.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The narrative around Brooks Koepka’s current form doesn’t make sense to me. He’s been spotty for sure, mixing in more missed cuts over the past couple of months than your average top-20 player in the world, but he was terrific in Scottsdale, finishing tied or third, and the ball-striking was nearly as good two weeks later at The Honda Classic where he finishing T16. He’s gained strokes putting every time he’s teed it up at this event, and The PLAYERS, although not a major, fits the big-game hunting mentality that Brooks is notorious for. I’m encouraged by his recent off-the-tee performance at The Honda Classic, and banking on him building off of that success here this week. I’ll take Koepka at +450 on DraftKings<\/a> to find the top 10 this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sugar Shane is checking a lot of boxes this week. Elite ball-striking. Above-average scrambling skills. Low ball flight, vital when the weather and wind are an issue. Accurate off the tee. Superb current form, with a solo second-place last time out and three top-24 finishes in his other 2022 starts. A top 10 finish at this event last year. All of this has Lowry’s arrow pointing up, and he’s a great down-the-board look if you’re looking for someone who can win this north of 50\/1. If you don’t think he has the teeth to take home the trophy, consider him at 2\/1 for a top 20, available at both DraftKings<\/a> and BetRivers<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Russell Henley has a spotty course history at The PLAYERS, but that matters here less than almost any other event on Tour. His made-cut finishes at this event have ranged from 17th to 35th, essentially what we’re asking him to replicate this week. He’s made 13 straight cuts, finishing no worse than 33rd in his past seven starts, and is coming off of a strong showing at last week’s Arnold Palmer. Over the past six months, he ranks fifth in this field in strokes gained approach, and 18th in ball-striking. He’ll find fairways and greens, and if the putter runs hot, he’ll be near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon. At +135 on FanDuel<\/a>, he’s a solid value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After finishing T55 at The Honda Classic a few weeks ago, Knox ended his incredible run of three straight T33 finishes in February’s first three events. Arbitrary, yes, but impressive nonetheless. The putter can run ice-cold for Knox at times, but I’m leaning on the stickier stats, and Knox has been thriving there. Over the past six months, Knox ranks 10th in this field in strokes gained approach and 17th in ball-striking, and he sticks out like a sore thumb, surrounded by the best golfers in the world in both metrics. He’s exceptionally accurate off the tee, and finding fairways is critical for Knox, increasing the likelihood that he’ll be in a position to find the green on his approaches. Missed greens are an issue since he’s a below-average scrambler, so we’re riding the hot iron play on this one, looking to crack a top 40 finish at +230 on FanDuel<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is more pro-Noren than anti-Kokrak, though I do like to fade Kokrak when accuracy off the tee and around the green skills are highlighted as they are at this event. Alex Noren has a reputation for playing difficult courses well, and I like the European lean this week with the forecast that’s ahead of us. Noren is coming off of a T5 finish at The Honda Classic in his last start, and also posted a T6 in Scottsdale back in mid-February. He has two T20 finishes here in four career starts, but more importantly, I like the form that he brings to Ponte Verda Beach this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This has been one of the more dormant stretches of Tony Finau’s career. He’s making his 2022 Florida debut this week after skipping the first few events, and the historic top-20 machine has been anything but consistent in the early part of the season. He’s putting poorly and spraying it off the tee, something that you can’t do here with all of the hazards and water that stare you down from the tee box. Finau has been significantly below average with accuracy off the tee of late, and while that’s something that you can get away with in Hawaii or at Riviera because of the added distance, that game doesn’t play well here. Unless Finau fixed something in the past few weeks, he’s not playing the weekend here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter<\/a> and subscribe to our Discord<\/a> at 4for4. This sheet<\/a>, from Dan Rivera<\/a>, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The PLAYERS Championship is often referred to as the PGA Tour’s fifth major, and rightfully so. This week, 47 of the world’s top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings list make their way to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Verda Beach, Florida for a tremendous test of their all-around game.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":484,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14],"bs_tags":[29,98],"class_list":["post-483","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-the-players-championship"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/GettyImages-1373183653-1.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"},{"id":98,"name":"The Players Championship","slug":"the-players-championship"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Ryan Noonan","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Ryan-Noonan-150x150.jpg"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"false","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=483"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Outright Betting Pick<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Daniel Berger<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Finishing Position Bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Top 5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Hideki Matsuyama<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Top 10<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Brooks Koepka<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Top 20<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Shane Lowry<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Top 30<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Russell Henley<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Top 40<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Russell Knox<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Head-to-Head Matchup<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Alex Noren -110 vs. Jason Kokrak<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
To Miss The Cut<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Tony Finau +125<\/h3>\n\n\n\n