It is the 150th Open Championship at St Andrews are we are in for a treat. Analysts are calling it the most consequential major in the last 20 years of the sport. There is no shortage of excitement and storylines as we enter the last major of the year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
To many, this season absolutely flew by, after the super season last year many could not fathom how long it would take until there is another major. Well, after this week we will have to wait patiently until April to see another Major take place. This is all to say; cherish every moment of this week, wake up early, and track your favorite golfer because this will be the last time for a while. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are no shortages of storylines this week as we are all wondering; is this Tiger\u2019s last major at St Andrews? How will LIV and the PGA Tour Pros be together, can Rory end his major drought? How will the course play? Can Xander continue this epic run? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Old Course at St Andrews is a 7,300-yard par 72 designed in the 15th century and has many questions surrounding how low these professionals are going to take it. We have seen winning scores in the mid-teens in the last few editions of The Open here. The course features massive fairways and greens, is heavily bunkered, and has an odd hole complexion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unlike most courses on tour, St Andrews has a whopping 14 par 4s, and only two par 3s and two par 5s. The course is also not very long by tour standards, as there are many holes that are drivable and most will have wedges being hit into them. This all sounds great barring the fact that there are countless pot bunkers that surround the fairways and greens that will be a costly penalty for golfers that find their way into them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I am looking for elite wedge players that excel on slower greens, and drivers that can keep the ball in play with above-average distance. Putting is going to be key this week as these greens are massive and undulating and will require much expertise. I also believe that the winning score will breach -15 so making birdies will be imperative this week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I will be wagering more than normal on this event as it’s the last major of the year, majors are easier to have success at and it’s going to be extremely fun. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let’s get into my favorite bets for the week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
My official pick to win this event since April of this year has been Cameron Smith, nothing has changed now that it is the week of. I really believe that Cameron checks every single box this week and that he will be the one holding the Claret Jug come Sunday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Smith\u2019s biggest weakness has always been that he can be a little inaccurate with the driver. However, he has had the most success on courses with wide fairways. Three tops 5s at Augusta national and winner and Kapalua earlier this season, we see that when he gets a little more open off the tee, he can succeed. He also is not incapable of gaining strokes Off the Tee. He just gained over two strokes last week with his new Titleist driver. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cam has undeniably had the best short game and putting on Tour. He just gained 7 strokes putting on similar greens last week at the Scottish. Smith finished t10 with three rounds under par and a difficult +5 on Friday. If he cleans that up he is easily in the mix to win last week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Smith ranks 1th in proximity from 100-125 yards and 3rd from 75-100 yards over the past 24 rounds. I believe that this is the range in which the event will be won. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cameron Smith will win the 150th Open Championship. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is pretty simple sometimes; the easiest play on the board is Jordan Spieth for a Top 10 at The Open Championship. The 2017 Open Champion has some of the best event histories of anyone in the field. Since 2015 Jordan has gone T4, T30, Win, T9, T20, and 2nd at this event. Whenever we come over to this side of the pond, Speith always finds himself in contention. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Jordan is an elite wedge player, he’s creative around the greens, and can hit these large fairways as he did in 2015. One aspect that I really like is that Jordan is the only player in this price range that played at this course in 2015. St Andrews is a place that rewards experience and he has that more than anyone at the top. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Jordan has had a lackluster 2022 major season, however, I think he can change all that by being in contention this week. We saw Louie win in 2010 and then lose in the play-off five years later, both at St Andrews. I think we see that with Jordan this week. I can’t think of a player I am more confident in to be in the mix come Sunday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Just like last year, Speith will find himself at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. This +190 on a top 10 is an easy play for me. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
As we just talked about elite Open Championship form with Jordan Speith, there is another world Class American that fits the build; Tony Finau. This two-time PGA Tour winner has never finished worse than T27 at this event and I don’t see that stopping now. Finau finished 3rd in 2019 and has finished within the top 20 every other year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I think this is an extremely safe bet on a golfer that has consistently shown that enjoys and thrives on links-style golf. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tony Finau is also in some excellent form right now. He has gained strokes ball striking in 7 out of his last 8 starts on tour. Highlighted by a staggering 8.3 strokes at the Canadian Open and 7.5 at the Charles Schwab. Tony is in great form and at a course and event that suits his game, +188 for a top 20 is a no-brainer. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Keith Mitchell is someone that I have been betting and will continue to wager money on because I am just so high on his talent and the way he is playing. Mitchel played himself into this event with a top 10 at the RBC Canadian Open. He has only played two Opens before with two missed cuts but that is no cause for concern. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mitchell also has a special connection to this place as his father is a member of the R&A and his sister went to school at St Andrews. He has played this course many times and it suits his game. Mitchell has above-average distance, is able to make a lot of birdies, and has shown he can win in windy conditions before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I think that with his current form and connection to this course, it could be a great fit. This Georgia Bulldog ranks 5th in SG: OTT, 14th in SG: Putting, and 23rd in SG: ARG. This is an excellent combination of skillsets to finish in the top 40 at plus money. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I am going to take someone that has held the first-round lead and has contended at an Open Championship before at plus-money here. Kevin Kisner was a very relevant storyline at the 2018 Open Championship and I don’t see why he can’t do that again. He is not handicapped by the length of the tee given the course and how firm it is playing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
He has also shown some life in his last start with a 6th-place finish at the Travelers. Lee has zero links history to speak of. I think Kisner possesses more upside and is more likely to make the cut as he has in his last three appearances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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