Keith Stewart and I break down the course setup, weather, rough conditions, green complexes, and exactly what skill set is needed to win this year\u2019s PGA Championship.<\/p>\n
We discussed<\/strong><\/p>\n Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/span>\u2019s returning iron play Plus: on-site intel from practice rounds, player form analysis, and a custom Rabbit Hole stat model built specifically for Aronimink.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll be doing a Q&A on Twitter around 8:30 p.m. ET this evening. Normally, I\u2019d do the live chat on YouTube, but I\u2019ll be occupied with an 8-week-old this evening, so I\u2019ll be in text-to-text answer mode rather than the text-to-yelling answers usually reserved for Major Championships.<\/p>\n Thursday, we\u2019ll be LIVE TWICE post-round. First, Cust, Geoff, and I will be recapping Round 1. Then, after a 10-minute break, we\u2019ll be doing the LIVE NFL SCHEDULE REACTION!!! One of our viewers\u2019 favorite shows of the year.<\/p>\n Both will be available on the PME audio feeds after the fact as well. SUB AND REVIEW PLEASE!!!!<\/p>\n Oh, Cut Sweat on Friday too. Tons going on over at MMN.<\/p>\n WINNER<\/strong><\/p>\n PROPS<\/strong><\/p>\n WINNER FUTURES<\/strong><\/p>\n FIRST ROUND LEADER<\/strong><\/p>\n The longer the week has gone along, the more I hate having hitched my wagon to a lone guy at the top with the revelation that bombs away off the tee may be the play. The good news is it\u2019s Scottie, so he\u2019ll likely be involved at some point come Sunday. If I was playing this week without a card of longshot future bets, I likely would have just bet Cam, Fitz, Burns, and MacIntyre. Maybe a couple others. I think I like my current positions better. You can still get Scheffler at +600 on Coolbet, btw (if you\u2019re in Canada outside Ontario).<\/a><\/p>\n Rory\u2019s blister issues appear to be solved. He\u2019s using a wider shoe and reported no problems in a 9-Hole Wednesday practice round. Said it hurt a bit walking down hills. That\u2019s to be expected because it\u2019s a fucking blister.<\/p>\n There are 156 players this week. But a floor of 18 of the PGA Professionals are cooked, while another 20-30 of the bottom-rung players from the PGA, DPWT, LIV, and Champions Tours are basically dead as well. So, let\u2019s say 45 players aren\u2019t making the cut. Since it\u2019s Top 70 and ties, if my 45 number is accurate (not guaranteed), a minimum of 63% of the field is going to see the weekend. Now I pray I picked the right guys.<\/p>\n I actually played another version of this, but added Harris English<\/a><\/span> and Shane Lowry<\/a><\/span> for +17000 if you\u2019re feeling frisky. Be aware: Daniel Berger<\/a><\/span> is gonna blow this for us.<\/p>\n Still need 73 people to fill this contest. help me out here. If you\u2019re in the One and Done, it\u2019s the same wallet, so it should be easy. It\u2019s a simple game, pick 5 golfers within the $15 salary cap. Takes 10 seconds if you want it to. We need 200 more people to join. Be a hero.<\/p>\n After discussing the course conditions and strategy after he\u2019d walked the course this week, Keith and I built a simplified model targeting players with the right baselines to succeed. Doesn\u2019t mean they\u2019ll live up to those expectations, but there\u2019s a path to hit upside.<\/p>\n Keith passed along to me Wednesday afternoon that the wind keeps picking up later in the day, and the overnight rain isn\u2019t expected to do much to soften the course overnight, if any comes at all. So anticipate the course playing very firm and fast.<\/p>\n Sign up to the Rabbit Hole this week with code MAYO and get in a draw for a free year.<\/em><\/p>\n Although I\u2019m betting Burns for FRL, that\u2019s only playing a hunch. The remainder of the card is players going off at least a couple hours into the day. Having played a bunch of golf already in the Northeast, you can feel the very early morning rounds in your hands, especially when the clouds are blocking the sun. By 10:30 a.m. ET, the sun will be out and it\u2019ll be pristine golf weather in Philly, so I\u2019m banking those players will have a better chance of posting the outlier elite round.<\/p>\n If you missed the DraftKings discussion, Tambo, Blickle, and I gave our initial thoughts on the field, made different variations of lineups, and discussed the best tournaments to attack. Check it out if you missed it. Or just watch it again. All helps.<\/p>\n If you just wanna hit the easy button, go to the Rabbit Hole (REMINDER: Anyone using code \u201cMAYO\u201d to sign up this week gets entered into a draw for a FREE YEAR<\/strong><\/a>) and use the tools. Here\u2019s what the top of the ownership in large-field GPPs is looking like.<\/p>\n You can see the ownership tiers forming among the most expensive players. Scheffler, Cam, Rahm, Xander, and Ludvig are all Tier 1 for ownership. Rory and Fitzpatrick are on the level below them. Then Bryson and Morikawa are well into the single digits.<\/p>\n After that, in pricing order, there may not be another player in the double digits of ownership until Si Woo Kim<\/a><\/span> at $7,900. Burns and Cantlay may sneak over 10%, but it\u2019s unlikely to be by much. There\u2019s a pocket of Min Woo, Scott, and Rickie that is projecting well above the rest in that range.<\/p>\n Once you get below $7,000, almost a quarter of the field is expected to pick Nicolai H\u00f8jgaard. I love Nicolai, but that\u2019s an easy fade. Even more so when you know he\u2019ll be paired with Scheffler and\/or Young in a high percentage of lineups.<\/p>\n After him, the only others sniffing 10% ownership are Reitan, Puig, Detry, Smalley, and maybe Matt McCarty<\/a><\/span>. In the sub-$6.5K range, Alex Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/span> is probably my favorite, along with Michael Thorbjornsen<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n FYI: There are bonuses GALORE in the lobby, so use as many as you can. But three things stick out to me that we can leverage on Underdog.<\/p>\n These are huge greens (8,300 sq. ft.), so GIR% is going to be quite high. Underdog has adjusted for this and set most numbers at 14.5. I still like the over on that.<\/p>\n Fairways are going to be hit at a low percentage for bombers. With the rough not being very penal, they just won\u2019t care. And they\u2019ll be tough to hold based on the conditions. So, the under on those is the play.<\/p>\n Finally, while there aren\u2019t any markets for it yet, keep an eye out for the 1-9 hole scoring and 10-18 hole scoring. The front is really scorable, whereas the back is much tougher. If those numbers drop, it could be a smash spot if you\u2019re first on the scene before the numbers get whacked.<\/p>\n Pat Mayo breaks down the course setup, weather, rough conditions, green complexes, and exactly what skill set is needed to win this year\u2019s PGA Championship.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":17489,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14,15],"bs_tags":[29,73,114],"class_list":["post-21353","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_type-fantasy","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-golf-dfs","bs_tag-pga-championship"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/gettyimages-2271487964-612x612-1.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"},{"id":73,"name":"Golf DFS","slug":"golf-dfs"},{"id":114,"name":"PGA Championship","slug":"pga-championship"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"},{"id":15,"name":"Fantasy"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Pat Mayo","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-17-163255-150x150.png"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"false","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/21353","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17489"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=21353"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=21353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nRory McIlroy<\/a><\/span>\u2019s aggressive driving strategy
\nCam Young as a potential breakthrough major winner
\nSam Burns<\/a><\/span> as a sleeper contender
\nWhy putting may decide the championship
\nBombers vs positional players at Aronimink
\nBest outright bets, placements, and betting angles
\nKeith\u2019s Chipping Tips<\/p>\nWATCH: PGA Championship 2026 Bets, One & Done, Make Cut Parlay | Insights From The Course | Keith\u2019s Chipping Tips<\/a><\/h4>\n
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<\/p>\nSUB TO THE PME ON YOUTUBE FOR LIVE CONTENT!!!!!<\/a><\/h4>\n
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETS<\/h3>\n
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<\/p>\n5×5 Picks Pool<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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PLAY IN PME 5×5 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS POOL<\/a><\/h4>\n
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<\/p>\nFIRST ROUND LEADER\/WEATHER<\/h2>\n
RABBIT HOLE<\/h2>\n
Projections, Stats & Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool<\/a><\/h4>\n
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<\/p>\nWIND TOWER: Wayne Pennsylvania USA<\/a><\/h4>\n
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<\/p>\nDRAFTKINGS<\/h3>\n
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