{"id":16997,"date":"2026-03-18T16:44:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T16:44:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&#038;p=16997"},"modified":"2026-03-18T16:44:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T16:44:32","slug":"valspar-championship-betting-preview","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/valspar-championship-betting-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"Valspar Championship \u2013 Betting Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>After Cam Young\u2019s scintillating comeback win at The PLAYERS Championship, the Florida Swing concludes with the Valspar Championship. While Innisbrook has four courses available to golfers, the Copperhead course is the one that has hosted this tournament since its inception on Tour in 2000.<\/p>\n<p>Located just outside of Tampa in Palm Harbor, Florida, Innisbrook is one of the most underrated courses on the PGA Tour and encompasses one of the most complete tests of golf that players will face all year. Featuring narrow pine tree-lined fairways and rolling terrain combined with the surrounding lakes, proper positioning off the tee is paramount. 2023\u2019s champion,\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/taylor-moore\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/taylor-moore\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Taylor Moore<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>\u00a0remarked, \u201cThis place is a ball-striker\u2019s kind of paradise \u2013 fairway and green it to death.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Players will be challenged as they navigate numerous tight doglegs, elevation changes, 74 well-positioned bunkers, six holes with water danger, rough approaching four inches, and tricky pin positions. The course has consistently played over par and ranks as the ninth most difficult annual course on Tour.<\/p>\n<p>The number of trees and elevation changes make it feel as if one is in the hill country of North Carolina. As course architect, Larry Packard, said himself back in 2012, \u201cWhen you play Copperhead you don\u2019t even feel like you are in Florida. When you stand on the first hole and look down the fairway you are on an elevated tee and looking down the fairway lined with pine trees on both sides. It feels more like the Carolinas than Florida.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The makeup of the par-71 course is also far from traditional as there are five par-3s along with four par-5s. The course culminates at the infamous \u201cSnake Pit\u201d with two difficult par-4s sandwiched between the challenging par-3 17th. Similar to TPC Sawgrass, positional golf is once again the name of the game as Innisbrook mitigates almost any advantage that bombers have off the tee. But this is not your typical \u201cshort\u201d course. With 53% of approach shots coming from over 175 yards, players will need to be sharp with their long-distance approach game.<\/p>\n<p>2013 winner,\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/kevin-streelman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/kevin-streelman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kevin Streelman<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>\u00a0summed up Innisbrook quite well. \u201cOn this golf course, you\u2019ll make some bogies pretty quickly. A lot of players would say it\u2019s their favorite course in Florida that we play. They love it because of shot playability. You hit everything from 4-iron to driver off the tees, and shape them in both directions. You have par 5s you can go for and some you lay back. You have to be so exact where you leave it. There\u2019s no let-up out there but it\u2019s very fair at the same time. You got to man up and hit golf shots.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>The Field<\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/HDUdjsOXEAA69PL?format=jpg&amp;name=small\" alt=\"Image\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Valspar Championship kicks off the final three-event stretch leading up to the Masters. Coming on the heels of numerous high-stakes tournament, many of the upper tier players typically rest this week and begin private preparation for the year\u2019s first major. The winner of the 135-player field gets $1,638,000 from a $9.1 million purse plus a Masters invitation if not already eligible.<\/p>\n<p>The field features nine of the top 25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking, including\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/xander-schauffele\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/xander-schauffele\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Xander Schauffele<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>,\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/justin-thomas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/justin-thomas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Justin Thomas<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>,\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/matt-fitzpatrick\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/matt-fitzpatrick\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>,\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/ben-griffin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ben-griffin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ben Griffin<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>,\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/akshay-bhatia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/akshay-bhatia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Akshay Bhatia<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>, and defending champion\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/viktor-hovland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/viktor-hovland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Viktor Hovland<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>. Other notables in attendance are\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/j.j.-spaun\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/j.j.-spaun\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">J.J. Spaun<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>,\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/jacob-bridgeman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jacob-bridgeman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jacob Bridgeman<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>,\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/patrick-cantlay\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/patrick-cantlay\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Patrick Cantlay<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>,\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/corey-conners\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/corey-conners\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Corey Conners<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>,\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/jordan-spieth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jordan-spieth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jordan Spieth<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>,\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/wyndham-clark\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/wyndham-clark\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wyndham Clark<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>, and\u00a0<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/golfer\/sahith-theegala\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sahith-theegala\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sahith Theegala<\/a><\/span><\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<h2>Past Winners &amp; Odds<\/h2>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16998\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-15-004307.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"303\" height=\"551\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-15-004307.jpg 303w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-15-004307-165x300.jpg 165w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 303px) 100vw, 303px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Most Important Stats For Success at Innisbrook<\/h2>\n<p><em>*In order of importance<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>SG: APP<\/li>\n<li>DFEF (Distance From Edge of Fairway)<\/li>\n<li>Bogey Avoidance<\/li>\n<li>Scrambling<\/li>\n<li>Good Drive%<\/li>\n<li>SG: Par 5<\/li>\n<li>SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis\/Bent)<\/li>\n<li>Proximity 175+ yards<\/li>\n<li>SG: OTT on Difficult OTT\/Less Than Driver courses<\/li>\n<li>SG: Total (Difficult Scoring)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Key\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.betspertsgolf.com\/the-rabbit-hole\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Rabbit Hole<\/a>\u00a0Filters<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Course Region: Florida<\/li>\n<li>Scoring Conditions: Difficult\/Very Difficult<\/li>\n<li>Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis<\/li>\n<li>Rough Surface: Rye<\/li>\n<li>Rough Length: Long<\/li>\n<li>Gain OTT: Very Difficult<\/li>\n<li>OTT Club Type: Less Than Driver<\/li>\n<li>Fairway Accuracy: Difficult<\/li>\n<li>Missed Fwy Penalty: High<\/li>\n<li>Gain APP: Very Difficult<\/li>\n<li>GIR Accuracy: Difficult<\/li>\n<li>Par 5 Scoring: Difficult<\/li>\n<li>Scrambling Rough: Difficult<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Valspar Championship \u2013 Final Model<\/h2>\n<p>In each preview article and on\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/3j0FuhF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-describedby=\"audioeye_new_window_message\">Discord<\/a>, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA\u2019s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.pgatour.com\/news\/2016\/05\/31\/strokes-gained-defined.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-describedby=\"audioeye_new_window_message\">Strokes Gained<\/a>\u00a0and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/3viXUDP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-describedby=\"audioeye_new_window_message\">The Rabbit Hole<\/a>\u201c, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16999\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121106.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1509\" height=\"949\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121106.jpg 1509w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121106-300x189.jpg 300w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121106-1024x644.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121106-768x483.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1509px) 100vw, 1509px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-17000\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121330.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1508\" height=\"945\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121330.jpg 1508w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121330-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121330-1024x642.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121330-768x481.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1508px) 100vw, 1508px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-17001\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121426.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1343\" height=\"968\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121426.jpg 1343w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121426-300x216.jpg 300w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121426-1024x738.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-18-121426-768x554.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1343px) 100vw, 1343px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Model Link: <a href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1t9cWrO_Q6-RrNkyN1Zacam6mGLHfq2SMnCLgMIQpE0o\/edit?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1t9cWrO_Q6-RrNkyN1Zacam6mGLHfq2SMnCLgMIQpE0o\/edit?usp=sharing<\/a><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"outright-betting-selections\">Outright Betting Selections<\/h2>\n<p><em>For the most up-to-date picks, check out my\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PGASplits101\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-describedby=\"audioeye_new_window_message\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0and subscribe to our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/discord.gg\/HujqSwCvwR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-describedby=\"audioeye_new_window_message\">Discord<\/a>\u00a0at BetspertsGolf.com.<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Hovland +1900 (1.25u) &#8211; DK<\/li>\n<li>Spaun +3500 (0.67u) &#8211; Rivers<\/li>\n<li>Bradley +5500 (0.43u) &#8211; Rivers<\/li>\n<li>Rai +7000 (0.34u) &#8211; Rivers<\/li>\n<li>Homa +8000 (0.30u) &#8211; Fanatics<\/li>\n<li>T. Moore +9000 (0.26u) &#8211; Rivers<\/li>\n<li>Cauley +9000 (0.26u) &#8211; Rivers<\/li>\n<li>McCarthy +12500 (0.19u) &#8211; Rivers<\/li>\n<li>Novak +15000 (0.16u) &#8211; Caesars<\/li>\n<li>M. Kim +17500 (0.13u) &#8211; Rivers<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call\u00a0<a href=\"tel:1-800-GAMBLER\">1-800-GAMBLER<\/a>\u00a0if you have a gambling problem.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Photo by Sam Greenwood\/Getty Images<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/DK_P6_GOLF_26-Feb-Refresh_TP_Static_1200x628.png\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":17002,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14],"bs_tags":[29,97],"class_list":["post-16997","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-the-valspar-championship"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/gettyimages-2169767409-612x612-1.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"},{"id":97,"name":"The Valspar Championship","slug":"the-valspar-championship"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Ron Klos","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Ron-Klos-150x150.jpg"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"false","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/16997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=16997"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=16997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}