{"id":16827,"date":"2026-03-04T16:29:36","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T16:29:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&#038;p=16827"},"modified":"2026-03-04T16:29:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T16:29:37","slug":"2026-arnold-palmer-invitational-picks-bets-weather-dfs-notes-fantasy-golf-picks","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/2026-arnold-palmer-invitational-picks-bets-weather-dfs-notes-fantasy-golf-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Bets, Weather, DFS Notes | Fantasy Golf Picks"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 data-pm-slice=\"0 0 []\"><strong>2026 <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/span> Invitational CHEATSHEET<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><strong>ARNOLD PALMER INV.<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/matt-fitzpatrick\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/span> +3300 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ludvig-aberg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ludvig Aberg<\/a><\/span> +6600 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/pierceson-coody\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pierceson Coody<\/a><\/span> +9000 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"\/golfer\/nicolai-hojgaard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nicolai Hojgaard<\/a> +10000 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sepp-straka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sepp Straka<\/a><\/span> +11000 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/alex-noren\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alex Noren<\/a><\/span> +11000 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>PUERTO RICO<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/michael-brennan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michael Brennan<\/a><\/span> +4200<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/david-ford\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">David Ford<\/a><\/span> +7500 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li>Sudershan Yellamaraju +11000 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li>Zac Bauchou +11000 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/davis-riley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Davis Riley<\/a><\/span> +14000 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/chandler-blanchet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chandler Blanchet<\/a><\/span> +14000 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jimmy-stanger\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jimmy Stanger<\/a><\/span> +27500 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>LIV HONG KONG<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/abraham-ancer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Abraham Ancer<\/a><\/span> +3300 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/dean-burmester\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dean Burmester<\/a><\/span> +4000 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/paul-casey\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Paul Casey<\/a><\/span> +12500 (3 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/wade-ormsby\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wade Ormsby<\/a><\/span> +135000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>API FIRST ROUND LEADER<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Nicolai H\u00f8jgaard +4500<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/keith-mitchell\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Keith Mitchell<\/a><\/span> +5500<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>PRO FIRST ROUND LEADER<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>David Riley +7000<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/chandler-blanchet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chandler Blanchet<\/a><\/span> +7000<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jimmy-stanger\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jimmy Stanger<\/a><\/span> +8000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\"><strong>SUBSCRIBE TO THE FREE MAYO MEDIA NEWSLETTER FOR MORE GOLF CONTENT<\/strong><\/a><\/h4>\n<h4><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/span> Invitational PICKS<\/h4>\n<p><em>There are a lot of bets in play this week (I mean, come on, there are three decent events to bet), but it\u2019s mostly long shots, so the overall spend isn\u2019t quite the load it may appear to be. But coming off my most winning week in almost two years, I\u2019m feeling charitable to the sports books. If you\u2019re looking for the 3 Place EW market, it\u2019s an offering from Bet365. Don\u2019t think I didn\u2019t play all the outright winners together as 2 and 3 way parlays either. Because of course I did. Let\u2019s have some fun.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong><a href=\"\/golfer\/matt-fitzpatrick\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/strong><\/em><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"> \u2014 Fitz\u2019s driving and irons are at an all-time peak.<\/span> He\u2019s never been on a better ball-striking run in his career. The problem is, it perfectly coincided with an awful putting stretch. It\u2019s not so much that he\u2019s been bad all the time in 2026; it\u2019s just when it has gone wrong, it\u2019s gone really wrong. In his past 13 rounds, Fitzpatrick has lost strokes putting to the field eight times. Not great, also not the worst. Should be manageable, right? NOPE. He\u2019s lost more than a stroke in five of the past six rounds when he\u2019s gone negative, topped off by dropping a laughable -5.75 SG: PUTT over the week at Riviera. Maybe there is something broken with his putting stroke. Or maybe it\u2019s a small sample size or a struggle with Poa Annua. Regardless, I\u2019m betting on a return to regular levels on the greens at Bay Hill. An event Fitzpatrick has played each of the past 10 years and never finished in the negative on these fast, Bermuda greens.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/shorturl.at\/CHfyW\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong>In Canada, outside of Ontario???? Get MATT FITZPATRICK BOOST TO WIN AT COOLBET<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ludvig-aberg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ludvig Aberg<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 While justified based on recent performance, seeing Aberg behind some of the names in this field is pretty jarring. Yet, it\u2019s easy to sell after seeing his performance in the final three rounds at Riviera. All the early-season issues seemed to completely evaporate after a poor first round. Ludvig\u2019s skill completely fits the skill profile for Bay Hill; he simply needs to deploy them all four rounds.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/pierceson-coody\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pierceson Coody<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 Maybe too much too soon at too high profile of an event for Coody to get his breakthrough, but I would have said the same about <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jacob-bridgeman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jacob Bridgeman<\/a><\/span> two weeks ago. So here we are. Coody\u2019s consistently great driving (1st in the field in SG: OTT past six months) keeps him lurking around these leaderboards. And now he\u2019s actually hitting his irons consistently well. Prior to this year, Coody would always drive it great, run super hot or super cold with the putter, but rarely beat the field on his approach play. Yet, since the Sanderson Farms in October, he\u2019s now gained on approach in nine of 10 starts, including two of the longer courses he\u2019s played this year at Torrey Pines and Riviera.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/nicolai-hojgaard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nicolai Hojgaard<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 No one from this next tier of players in the field is playing as well as Nicolai in 2026. He\u2019s notched three Top 6 finishes in his past four starts between PGA and DPWT and has showcased the type of GO LOW ability that has staged many a final round comebacks at Bay Hill over the years. And, unlike most in this range, it\u2019s doubtful Hojgaard feels the pressure of the big stars around himself if he finds a late tee time. At age 24, the Dane already has a DP World Tour Championship, a Ryder Cup Win, a Top 10 at the Olympics, along with a litany of other close calls. Just don\u2019t ask him to make too many 5-footers for par. Those go in with less frequency for Nicolai than his 40-footers.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sepp-straka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sepp Straka<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 I may be starting to have a Straka problem. Hopefully it\u2019s actually a Straka solution! I\u2019m not entirely sure what happened to him at Riviera on the weekend, but previous to those two rounds, he was experiencing an elite ball-striking season. Quite similar to a year ago, when he was striking the ball excellently before the final event on the West Coast, where he got cut in a Signature Event, only to rattle off a T11\/T5\/T14 run through Florida.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/alex-noren\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alex Noren<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 It\u2019s been a mixed bag for Noren in 2026 after going nuclear in Europe after the PGA regular season ended. There have been a few little things pointing up, though. His results have improved in each start, despite the field strength getting stronger each time. Additionally, he\u2019s spiked with his irons three times in his past seven rounds, gaining at least one stroke on the field on approach. The short game remains solid, and his proximity to the rough from 150+ yards is the best in the field. If Noren can clean up the driver, he can contend if conditions play tough.<\/p>\n<p><strong>PUERTO RICO<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/michael-brennan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michael Brennan<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 Brennan\u2019s driver may be the best weapon on TOUR. Off the Tee play is the most repeatable metric we look at, and there\u2019s no one better or more consistent than Brennan. That\u2019s a wild sentence to type, but it\u2019s just facts. At +1.08 SG: OTT, he\u2019s the only player averaging over a stroke per round with the driver. For reference, Scottie is 2nd at +0.93 per round. You want numbers? Sure. He\u2019s first in driving distance (312 yards) while hitting 68% of fairways. That\u2019s about the same as known accuracy mavens JT Poston, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/russell-henley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Russell Henley<\/a><\/span>, and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/collin-morikawa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Collin Morikawa<\/a><\/span>. So, Brennan is basically Henley but 30 yards longer per drive. That\u2019s a scary prospect. The issue is that the rest of his game is pretty middling. Still, his irons are good enough to generate easy birdie opportunities, so he just needs a random good putting week to win. In nine PGA starts, he\u2019s gained with the putter just once. He won that event in Utah. It\u2019s kind of akin to very early <a href=\"\/golfer\/cameron-champ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cameron Champ<\/a>, where every time he gained putting, he contended and ended up winning three times. At any course where the driver plays, Brennan needs to be a bet.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/shorturl.at\/CHfyW\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong>In Canada, outside of Ontario???? Get <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/michael-brennan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michael Brennan<\/a><\/span> BOOST TO WIN AT COOLBET<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/david-ford\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">David Ford<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 I liked him last week, so why wouldn\u2019t I go back in a weaker field after he continued his run of elite ball striking? You\u2019d think this is the result of the three consecutive hole outs Thursday at COG, but his approach numbers were equally as good, or better, over the weekend. Of all players in the PRO field, he\u2019s the only one inside the Top 5 in both driving and irons.<\/p>\n<p>Last year, I hit Karl Villips after he flashed a bunch of spike approach results at COG the week before, so I\u2019m rolling out a similar strategy again this year. Despite missing the cut at PGA National, both <strong><em>Blanchet<\/em><\/strong> and <strong><em>Riley<\/em><\/strong> gained over +1.4 SG: APP\/round. That\u2019s the most of any player in the field this week, outside of <a href=\"\/golfer\/chad-ramey\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chad Ramey<\/a>, who is one-third the odds of the other two.\u00a0<strong><em>Sudershan<\/em><\/strong> is more in the Brennan vein. He\u2019s gained with his driver in almost 80% of rounds in his young career, but Old Yella has been better with his irons and putter. <strong><em>Stanger<\/em><\/strong> had two spike rounds with his driver and his irons at COG, and was T3 at this venue a year ago. And <strong><em>Bauchou<\/em><\/strong>? Well, I just like him.<\/p>\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/subscribe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stat Rankings And Customizable Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool<\/a><\/h4>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!tEEA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b7917d9-89e6-4faa-bd73-35e1b27214f8_991x391.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"991\" height=\"391\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/0b7917d9-89e6-4faa-bd73-35e1b27214f8_991x391.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:391,&quot;width&quot;:991,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:49700,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/189871108?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b7917d9-89e6-4faa-bd73-35e1b27214f8_991x391.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>LIV HONG KONG<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Ancer, Burmester, Casey<\/em> \u2014 <\/strong>Hong Kong Golf Club rewards a lot of players who fit the \u201cEnough distance, but great accuracy\u201d type. Prime <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/francesco-molinari\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Francesco Molinari<\/a><\/span> would have been great here. (After writing that, I went back and looked and found he lost in a playoff at HKGL in 2008 and followed it up with a T3 the next year.) Ancer beat Casey in a playoff in 2024, while the Burmester Mester lady was runner-up a year ago and fresh off a cracking first two rounds in South Africa last week before stalling out on the weekend.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/wade-ormsby\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wade Ormsby<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 So, two things on The Ace of Wades. I originally bet him at 150 with 3 Places at Bet365, then DK was offering 1350\/1 on him. I figured it was an error, but why not take the shot? That number was available most of Monday before getting slashed to 500\/1, then to 400\/1, etc. So now I have both bets. Ormsby has won twice at this course in his career and was T4 as recently as 2024. And it\u2019s not like he\u2019s been as terrible as his odds would make you think. He was T6 in his last start in New Zealand on the Asian Tour and has three Top 25s in his past five starts. Plus, one of my bigger paydays of 2025 was a long shot at this event a year ago when Phil paid off his Top 5 each way at 150\/1. Sometimes guys are mispriced at a weird course.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>2026 <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/span> Invitational HOT LINKS<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/kyrfJV6x2Fc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/span> Invitational FINAL Bets, Weather Edge &amp; One-and-Done | Keith Insights at The Course<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/KvY6UcNEXNM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/span> Invitational Picks, Bets, One and Done Picks<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/5fomFmqQeBw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/span> Invitational DraftKings Picks <\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/u5Xf7fWvL-Y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/span> Invitational Research, Sleepers &amp; Course Breakdown<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/GcHnjPEAr4A\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong>Post Divorce Dating Strategy, USA vs Canada, Sports Gatekeeping, Flying Habits, DO YOU KNOW WHO I AM<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/span> Invitational Weather<\/h4>\n<p>The weather is looking relatively benign, for Bay Hill standards at least. Since we\u2019re in Florida, expect passing showers likely every day, but nothing is anticipated to stop play from this forecast.\u00a0<span style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/kyrfJV6x2Fc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">As Keith Stewart told us on the Wednesday show, shared from his experience as a club pro across the lake at Isleworth G&amp;CC<\/a>, winds tend to appear from nowhere, especially later in the day.<\/span>\u00a0So keep on top of the forecast heading into each day to see if wind magically appears. This has happened a few times in the past decade and has led to some easy betting wins since some books will make their lines before realizing the weather has shifted.<\/p>\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/www.windfinder.com\/weatherforecast\/orlando_executive_airport\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Windtower: Orlando Executive Airport<\/a><\/h4>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!1MQU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F528c0071-a233-4c4b-b247-71b4b0d9422c_1452x1188.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1452\" height=\"1188\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/528c0071-a233-4c4b-b247-71b4b0d9422c_1452x1188.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1188,&quot;width&quot;:1452,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:361399,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/189871108?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F528c0071-a233-4c4b-b247-71b4b0d9422c_1452x1188.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<h4>2026 <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/span> Invitational DRAFTKINGS<\/h4>\n<p>This is a fascinating week for DraftKings. Small field, but with a cut, and the Scottie decision is becoming more pressing. Because of his recent play and non-adjusted price, we may have a situation where Scheffler starts slipping down the ownership board. Not to unowned levels, but simply to get into the pack with the other most popular plays. I\u2019d anticipate him to be higher owned in the larger field GPPs than in Single Entries.<\/p>\n<p>Still, the biggest issue I have with playing Scheffler is who you are pairing him with. <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/5fomFmqQeBw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">On Tuesday\u2019s show (Off the Top of the show too!), Blickle broke down how to think about the total ownership of your lineup in these situations<\/a>. From the $7000, it\u2019s looking very much like <a href=\"\/golfer\/nicolai-hojgaard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nicolai Hojgaard<\/a> and <a href=\"\/golfer\/sepp-straka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sepp Straka<\/a> are the chalk of the range, and they just happen to match up perfectly, salary-wise, with Scheffler lineups.\u00a0Meaning: Expect a lot of Scottie\/Hojgaard\/Straka starts, which leaves you with $7,100 for the final three players. The next two most likely clicks are probably <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ryan-gerard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ryan Gerard<\/a><\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/keith-mitchell\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Keith Mitchell<\/a>,<\/span> which will lead to <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/j.j.-spaun\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">J.J. Spaun<\/a>,<\/span> since he fits the remaining amount of money. If I just guessed your lineup, you may want to check out what Blickle had to say on lineup construction.<\/p>\n<p>For the Non-Scottie portion, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/matt-fitzpatrick\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/tommy-fleetwood\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tommy Fleetwood<\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rory McIlroy<\/a><\/span>, and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/collin-morikawa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Collin Morikawa<\/a><\/span> are leading up top. <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jake-knapp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jake Knapp<\/a><\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/chris-gotterup\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chris Gotterup<\/a><\/span> in the 8Ks, with <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/pierceson-coody\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pierceson Coody<\/a><\/span> joining the Hojgaard, Straka, and Gerard in the 7Ks. The good news: no one is currently projected to have more than 25% ownership on this slate. The only two I can see getting there would be Scheffler or Fitzpatrick.<\/p>\n<p>For the $6,000 range, here\u2019s who I used\u2026<\/p>\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/subscribe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stat Rankings And Customizable Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool<\/a><\/h4>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!_8QX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ca6dc4f-c0be-486e-9a2a-63c94f25eab0_2082x482.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"337\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/9ca6dc4f-c0be-486e-9a2a-63c94f25eab0_2082x482.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:337,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:136234,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/189871108?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ca6dc4f-c0be-486e-9a2a-63c94f25eab0_2082x482.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<h4>ICYMI Changes to Underdog Payouts (THEY WENT UP!)<\/h4>\n<p>The new Underdog Pick\u2019em payouts might not look like some massive, earth-shattering change at first glance, but they certainly matter. Bumping the two pick entry from 3x to 3.5x and the three pick entry from 6x to 6.5x is significant when you run the math. Previously, you needed to hit around 58 percent per leg on a two-pick just to make it worthwhile. Now you\u2019re sitting closer to 53.5 percent. To put that another way, if we were looking at this like by the odds you see at a sportsbook (In the USA, at least) it\u2019s the difference between -115 to -138.<\/p>\n<p>That gap is huge over time. It fundamentally shifts what\u2019s actually profitable. Because of this, the optimal strategy changes. Before, it was mostly four-pick and six-pick flex entries because the two-pick just weren\u2019t as strong mathematically. Now? Two-pick entries are very much in play. You can mix them in aggressively because the edge requirement isn\u2019t as steep. The math is simply more forgiving, and in this game, <s>not losing all your money<\/s> winning, that\u2019s everything.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Now, the best way to win on Underdog hasn\u2019t changed. In fact, it\u2019s the same anywhere you make picks. Take advantage of the bonuses. Signing up at Underdog gets you a deposit bonus of up to $1000, and you\u2019ll get $75 instantly when you play a $5 Pick\u2019em entry.<\/p>\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/play.underdogfantasy.com\/p-pat-mayo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Use code \u201cMAYO\u201d at Underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000<\/strong><\/a><\/h4>\n<hr \/>\n<p>When it comes to golf specifically, though, you still need to be more careful, and things like NFL\/NBA\/etc where there are more conventional props. You must pick your spots. Blindly firing at every slate isn\u2019t the move. Fading bad play tends to work better than blindly betting on guys to smash. And correlation is always lurking. If everyone expects easy scoring and just piles into lower props, you can end up in a correlated mess that kills your multiplier.<\/p>\n<p>The payout tweak is a real deal improvement. The drop in required win rate is significant, and it makes two-picks much more viable than they used to be. The math got better, and when the math gets better, the strategy has to adjust with it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pat Mayo lays out his picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Puerto Rico Open, and LIV Hong Kong, along with this thoughts on DFS and pick&#8217;em games at Underdog.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":16834,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14,15],"bs_tags":[70,29,73],"class_list":["post-16827","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_type-fantasy","bs_tag-arnold-palmer-invitational","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-golf-dfs"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/USATSI_27183350_168403787_lowres.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":70,"name":"Arnold Palmer Invitational","slug":"arnold-palmer-invitational"},{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"},{"id":73,"name":"Golf DFS","slug":"golf-dfs"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"},{"id":15,"name":"Fantasy"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Pat Mayo","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-17-163255-150x150.png"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"false","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/16827","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16827"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=16827"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=16827"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}