{"id":16804,"date":"2026-03-02T02:59:06","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T02:59:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&#038;p=16804"},"modified":"2026-03-02T02:59:06","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T02:59:06","slug":"2026-arnold-palmer-invitational-picks-course-preview-puerto-rico-open-fantasy-golf-picks-2026","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/2026-arnold-palmer-invitational-picks-course-preview-puerto-rico-open-fantasy-golf-picks-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Course Preview | Puerto Rico Open Fantasy Golf Picks 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 data-pm-slice=\"0 0 []\">2026 <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/a><\/span> Invitational Picks, Rankings, Stats, Course Preview<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ThePME\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Pat Mayo<\/a> takes a deep dive into tournament and <a href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/subscribe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf, making his early 2026 <\/a><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/a> Invitational Picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/u5Xf7fWvL-Y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong>WATCH: <\/strong><\/a><strong><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/a> Inv. 2026 Picks, Research + Puerto Rico Open Research, Sleepers<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4>2026 <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/a><\/span> Invitational<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Field: 72 Players<\/li>\n<li>Cut: Top 50 and Ties<\/li>\n<li>Lineup Lock: Thursday, March 5<\/li>\n<li>Defending Champ: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/russell-henley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/russell-henley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Russell Henley<\/a><\/a><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>You may be looking at this field and thinking\u2026<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ZzSF!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4101660f-9336-4376-91ae-2e15e1011b74_498x270.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"498\" height=\"270\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/4101660f-9336-4376-91ae-2e15e1011b74_498x270.gif&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:270,&quot;width&quot;:498,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:61911,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/gif&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/189543772?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4101660f-9336-4376-91ae-2e15e1011b74_498x270.gif&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Wouldn\u2019t be wrong.<\/p>\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow ugc noopener\">SUBSCRIBE TO THE FREE MAYO MEDIA NEWSLETTER FOR MORE GOLF CONTENT<\/a><\/h4>\n<p>For the third time in four weeks the PGA is rolling out an almost identical field. Fortunately, like the Genesis Invitation (And Memorial), there is a cut line this week to trim the field from 72 to the Top 50 and ties after 36-holes. That may seem insignificant, but it provided some solid Friday drama two weeks at Riviera with <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/a><\/span> needing to make a slippery 8-footer on the 18th Hole to see the weekend. He made it. And almost came Top 10.<\/p>\n<p>There are a few changes to this incarnation of the PGA\u2019s roaming ensemble for Bay Hill. Primarily, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/justin-thomas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/justin-thomas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Justin Thomas<\/a><\/a><\/span> will be making his season debut following back surgery last last year. He actually returned last Monday at TGL and looked, surprisingly, fine. He smashed two drives with ball speeds over 177mph, which is faster than his average ball speed from the past 18 months. JT says he\u2019s been practicing for month already and the injury really shouldn\u2019t affect the way he swings unlike <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/will-zalatoris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/will-zalatoris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Will Zalatoris<\/a><\/a><\/span>, who had to basically reconstruct a new swing after his back issue so he wouldn\u2019t snap in half from the waist.<\/p>\n<p>Also, with far less press, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sungjae-im\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sungjae-im\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sungjae Im<\/a><\/a><\/span> is returning from injury, too. Sungjae hasn\u2019t played this year at all with a wrist injury, and, unlike with Thomas, there hasn\u2019t been coverage at all about his rehab. He was pretty bad last year, so I doubt his first week back to competitive action, against a stacked field, is the proper spot to go ALL IN on Sungjae.<\/p>\n<p>As we saw with <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/xander-schauffele\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/xander-schauffele\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Xander Schauffele<\/a><\/a><\/span> a year ago (and many players over the seasons), short game \u2014 touch and feel \u2014 in a competitive tournament is usually the last thing to come back since it cannot be recreated in practice.<\/p>\n<p>Being the qualifiers from last year\u2019s FedEx Cup Top 50, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jordan-spieth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jordan-spieth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jordan Spieth<\/a><\/a><\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/tony-finau\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/tony-finau\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tony Finau<\/a><\/a><\/span> are in on current FedEx Cup points, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/alex-noren\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/alex-noren\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alex Noren<\/a><\/a><\/span> is Top 30 in the OWGR so he\u2019s earned a trip to Orlando as well.<\/p>\n<p data-pm-slice=\"1 1 []\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/chris-kirk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/chris-kirk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chris Kirk<\/a><\/a>, and <a href=\"\/golfer\/billy-horschel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/billy-horschel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Billy Horschel<\/a><\/a> are in the field on sponsors exemptions, and another will be added once the final points from the Cognizant Classic shake out. With his win, <a href=\"\/golfer\/nico-echavarria\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/nico-echavarria\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nico Echavarria<\/a><\/a> values himself into the field for API (And The Masters), while Nicolai Hojaard, <a href=\"\/golfer\/patrick-rodgers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/patrick-rodgers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Patrick Rodgers<\/a><\/a>, <a href=\"\/golfer\/taylor-moore\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/taylor-moore\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Taylor Moore<\/a><\/a>, <a href=\"\/golfer\/andrew-putnam\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/andrew-putnam\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Andrew Putnam<\/a><\/a>, and <a href=\"\/golfer\/keith-mitchell\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/keith-mitchell\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Keith Mitchell<\/a><\/a> all claim the final five spots through the Aon Swing 5. Mitchell made a birdie on 18 at the COG (after a double bogey on 16) to push out <a href=\"\/golfer\/joel-dahmen\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/joel-dahmen\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Joel Dahmen<\/a><\/a> by less than two points.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, Texas sophomore Daniel Bennett is in the field after earning the <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/a><\/span> Cup exemption. The South African won the 2025 <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/phil-mickelson\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/phil-mickelson\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Phil Mickelson<\/a><\/a><\/span> Award as the top college player and joins <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ludvig-aberg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ludvig-aberg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ludvig Aberg<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/david-ford\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/david-ford\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">David Ford<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jackson-koivun\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jackson-koivun\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jackson Koivun<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/cole-hammer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/cole-hammer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cole Hammer<\/a><\/a><\/span>, and others as amateurs in the API.<\/p>\n<h4>2026 <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/a><\/span> Invitational Key Stats<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Strokes Gained: Approach<\/li>\n<li>Proximity 200+ Yards<\/li>\n<li>Opportunities Gained<\/li>\n<li>Strokes Gained: Off The Tee<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/subscribe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Mayo\u2019s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool<\/a><\/h4>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!xg1N!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8cfc6077-a6fe-412e-8b2d-49b814494ac0_602x978.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"602\" height=\"978\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/8cfc6077-a6fe-412e-8b2d-49b814494ac0_602x978.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:978,&quot;width&quot;:602,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:97974,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/189543772?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8cfc6077-a6fe-412e-8b2d-49b814494ac0_602x978.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<h4>2026 <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/a><\/span> Invitational Course<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Bay Hill<\/li>\n<li>Yardage: 7,466<\/li>\n<li>Par: 72<\/li>\n<li>Greens: Bermuda<\/li>\n<li>Holes With Water: 9<\/li>\n<li>Sand Bunkers: 84<\/li>\n<li>Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. ft.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Par 3\u2019s (4): Average Distance &#8211; 217 yards<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Three of them have a bogey rate that is more than double the birdie rate.<\/li>\n<li>Henley: Two birdies on Thursday \u2026 one birdie and 11 pars after that<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Par 4\u2019s (10): Average Distance &#8211; 437 yards<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The three toughest holes are all Par 4\u2019s, with over a quarter of golfers playing each of them over par<\/li>\n<li>Henley: Three Par 4 bogeys on Thursday \u2026 just three the rest of the way<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Par 5\u2019s (4): Average Distance &#8211; 558 yards<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The four easiest holes on property including the layup at #16 (the 4.8% eagle rate nearly tops the bogey rate of 6.4%)<\/li>\n<li>Henley: After a par at #16 on Thursday, he went eagle-birdie-eagle<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>2026 <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/a><\/span> Invitational Past Winners<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>2025: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/russell-henley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/russell-henley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Russell Henley<\/a><\/a><\/span> -11<\/li>\n<li>2024: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/a><\/span> -15<\/li>\n<li>2023: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/kurt-kitayama\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/kurt-kitayama\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kurt Kitayama<\/a><\/a><\/span> -9<\/li>\n<li>2022: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/a><\/span> -5<\/li>\n<li>2021: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/bryson-dechambeau\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/bryson-dechambeau\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bryson DeChambeau<\/a><\/a><\/span> -11<\/li>\n<li>2020: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/tyrrell-hatton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/tyrrell-hatton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tyrrell Hatton<\/a><\/a><\/span> -4<\/li>\n<li>2019: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/francesco-molinari\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/francesco-molinari\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Francesco Molinari<\/a><\/a><\/span> -12<\/li>\n<li>2018: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rory McIlroy<\/a><\/a><\/span> -18<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2025: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/russell-henley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/russell-henley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Russell Henley<\/a><\/a><\/span> (+4000) beat <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/collin-morikawa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/collin-morikawa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Collin Morikawa<\/a><\/a><\/span> by 1<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Finishing positions for those who gained at least a stroke on approach and gained something (anything) with the putter: 1st-3rd-4th-5th-5th-7th-8th-8th\u201311th-18th<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2024: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/a><\/span> (+650, favorite) beat <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/wyndham-clark\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/wyndham-clark\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wyndham Clark<\/a><\/a><\/span> by 5<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Five golfers picked up 4+ strokes putting: they finished 1st-2nd-4th-6th-8th<\/li>\n<li>13 of the top 20 finishers for the week lost distance on the field<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2023: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/kurt-kitayama\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/kurt-kitayama\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kurt Kitayama<\/a><\/a><\/span> (+20000) beat <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rory McIlroy<\/a><\/a><\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/harris-english\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/harris-english\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Harris English<\/a><\/a><\/span> by 1<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Three golfers picked up 5+ strokes putting: they finished 1st-2nd-8th<\/li>\n<li>Eight of the top finishers gained putting from 10-15 feet (Scheffler finished T-4: he gained 1.1 strokes from 10-15 feet and lost from 0-5, 5-10, 15-20, and 20-25.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2022: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/a><\/span> (+2000, fourth on the odds board) beat <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/viktor-hovland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/viktor-hovland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Viktor Hovland<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/billy-horschel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/billy-horschel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Billy Horschel<\/a><\/a><\/span>, and Tyrell Hatton by 1<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Finishing positions of the 10 best putters for the week (starting with the best putter for the week): 7th-2nd-20th-20th-26th-5th-9th-20th-20th-9th<\/li>\n<li>10 of the top 12 finishers gained ground on the Par 3\u2019s for the week<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2021: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/bryson-dechambeau\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/bryson-dechambeau\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bryson DeChambeau<\/a><\/a><\/span> (+1200, second on the odds board) beat <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/lee-westwood\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/lee-westwood\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Lee Westwood<\/a><\/a><\/span> by 1<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bryson won and was the best OTT golfer for the week, but three of the next six finishers lost ground OTT for the week<\/li>\n<li>Five of the top seven finishers (Bryson included) lost Prox: Total for the week (short irons being the primary cause)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2020: Tyrell Hatton (+5000)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>He progressively got worse (68-69-73-74), but so did the conditions. Hatton did enough down the stretch on Sunday by closing with seven consecutive pars<\/li>\n<li>The top three in SG: APP for the week all finished inside the top-10 (<span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/collin-morikawa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/collin-morikawa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Collin Morikawa<\/a><\/a><\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/joel-dahmen\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/joel-dahmen\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Joel Dahmen<\/a><\/a><\/span> joined Hatton on that list, with the two of them bleeding over 1.5 strokes with the flat stick)<\/li>\n<li>The top six in ProxFG:200+ all finished with a share of 18th or better (Hatton didn\u2019t excel here, but he and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sungjae-im\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sungjae-im\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sungjae Im<\/a><\/a><\/span> thrived in the 175-200 bucket, allowing them to cashe top 5\u2019s without much success with the real deep irons)<\/li>\n<li>Note: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/matt-every\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/matt-every\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matt Every<\/a><\/a><\/span> went full Keegan (65 in Round 1 with an 83 in Round 2). Of note, 11 of the top-12 finishers gained on proximity in that 100-125 yard bucket (nine of them lost in either the 175-200 or 200+ range)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2019: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/francesco-molinari\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/francesco-molinari\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Francesco Molinari<\/a><\/a><\/span> (+2500)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Molinari fired the round of the tournament on Sunday (64, nine shots better than his Saturday and seven better than Fitzpatrick)<\/li>\n<li>Each of the top nine finishers gained strokes putting from either 20-25 feet or 25+ (Molinari was a plus in both buckets)<\/li>\n<li>13 of the top 14 finishers gained Good Drives on the field (four of them lost in distance and four of them lost fairways)<\/li>\n<li>Six of the top-7 for the week in SG: OTT cashed top-10 paychecks when all was said and done.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2018: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rory McIlroy<\/a><\/a><\/span> (+1600)<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>His 64 on Sunday matched the best of the tournament and was four better than Bryson&#8217;s. Rory was the only golfer in the field who shot 70 or better in all four rounds<\/li>\n<li>Rory and Bryson were the top two at the end of the week and they were the two best in Prox:200+<\/li>\n<li>McIlroy road a red-hot putter (+10 strokes on the field), and four of the top-5 putters for the week finished T7 or better on the final leaderboard.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>2026 <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/a><\/span> Invitational FIRST ROUND LEADER HISTORY<\/h4>\n<p><strong>2025<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>67: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/wyndham-clark\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/wyndham-clark\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wyndham Clark<\/a><\/a><\/span> (PM)<\/li>\n<li>69: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/corey-conners\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/corey-conners\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Corey Conners<\/a><\/a><\/span> (PM), <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/keegan-bradley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/keegan-bradley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Keegan Bradley<\/a><\/a><\/span> (AM), <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/shane-lowry\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/shane-lowry\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shane Lowry<\/a><\/a><\/span> (PM), and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/christiaan-bezuidenhout\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/christiaan-bezuidenhout\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Christiaan Bezuidenhout<\/a><\/a><\/span> (PM)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2024<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>66: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/shane-lowry\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/shane-lowry\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shane Lowry<\/a><\/a><\/span> (PM)<\/li>\n<li>67: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/hideki-matsuyama\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/hideki-matsuyama\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hideki Matsuyama<\/a><\/a><\/span> (AM) and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/justin-lower\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/justin-lower\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Justin Lower<\/a><\/a><\/span> (AM, third group out)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2023<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>65: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jon-rahm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jon-rahm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jon Rahm<\/a><\/a><\/span> (PM)<\/li>\n<li>67: Cam Young (AM), <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/kurt-kitayama\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/kurt-kitayama\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kurt Kitayama<\/a><\/a><\/span> (PM), and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/chris-kirk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/chris-kirk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chris Kirk<\/a><\/a><\/span> (AM)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2022<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>65: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rory McIlroy<\/a><\/a><\/span> (AM)<\/li>\n<li>67: JJ Spaun (AM), <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/beau-hossler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/beau-hossler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Beau Hossler<\/a><\/a><\/span> (AM), and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/billy-horschel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/billy-horschel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Billy Horschel<\/a><\/a><\/span> (PM)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2021<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>66: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/corey-conners\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/corey-conners\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Corey Conners<\/a><\/a><\/span> (PM) and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rory McIlroy<\/a><\/a><\/span> (AM)<\/li>\n<li>67: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/bryson-dechambeau\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/bryson-dechambeau\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bryson DeChambeau<\/a><\/a><\/span> (AM)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>2026 <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/a><\/span> Invitational Notes<\/h4>\n<p>This is your yearly reminder to consult the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.windfinder.com\/forecast\/orlando_executive_airport\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">weather report before submitting lineups<\/a> or making any wagers. A clear wave stack due to wind may emerge and you\u2019ll want to take advantage of that. It\u2019s more difficult to game this in 2026, though. Since it\u2019s a 72 player event, the tee splits won\u2019t be as pronounced, and if things look really bad at a certain point during the day, they may run split tees to get everyone on the course at the same time for the same conditions.<\/p>\n<p>If the gusts are up, that will dramatically change the type of player you may want to target this week. The wind is up at this course as a default and it may not have as big of an impact as you believe. But then there was 2020. Weekend wind made the course a scoring death trap for the field. Matthew Fitzpatrick (69 in Round 4) was the only player to crack 70 on the weekend. <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/tyrrell-hatton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/tyrrell-hatton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tyrrell Hatton<\/a><\/a><\/span> was the first player since <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/geoff-ogilvy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/geoff-ogilvy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Geoff Ogilvy<\/a><\/a><\/span> at the 2006 U.S. Open to fire two rounds over par on a weekend and still win.<\/p>\n<p>Two years later, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/a><\/span> charged from the pack Saturday when the leaders got dealt treacherous conditions. <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/rory-mcilroy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rory McIlroy<\/a><\/a><\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/francesco-molinari\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/francesco-molinari\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Francesco Molinari<\/a><\/a><\/span> both staged at least six-stroke Sunday comebacks in 2018 and 2019, so no one is ever dead at Bay Hill. This can provide an excellent live betting opportunity if you have the guts to believe in a massive comeback from someone not necessarily showing the form in the moment.<\/p>\n<p>Water ripples in the eye line of almost every shot and sand is ubiquitous (84 bunkers), not to mention that the rough tends to be longer than the opening in <em>Deer Hunter<\/em>. That wedding scene makes <em>The Neverending Story<\/em> feel like a pulp novella.<\/p>\n<p>Bay Hill actually plays longer than its 7,466 yards. With the prevalent water and series of doglegs, the holes have more distance to carry than they are actually measured on the scorecard. More so when you consider the average drive is over five yards shorter than the average PGA TOUR event (285 yards to 291 yards). While there are only nine officially listed water hazards, the wetness directly affects those nine holes in an impactful way. Fortunately, the greenside bunkers at Bay Hill are some of the easiest on the PGA TOUR annually, so bailing out to the non-water side of the greens is the preferred option on the longer approaches. And the sand is a better miss most times than the rough.<\/p>\n<p>Players are forced to lay up off the tee to keep dry or set themselves up for a clean look at the green. And they even struggle to do that. Missing into the rough on the far side to take water completely out of play is the common outcome. For years, driving accuracy was higher than the TOUR average. Over the past five years that has flipped: 57% at Bay Hill to 61% TOUR average despite the field only taking driver off the tee 66% of the time.<\/p>\n<p>This could be due to the Signature Event effect. Since the field is populated by the very best players on TOUR, they\u2019re willing to sacrifice fairways for extra distance, knowing their iron games are good enough to hack from the cabbage.<\/p>\n<p>Bay Hill sees far more approaches from beyond 200 yards than almost any course which is why the Birdie or Better rate from the long grass is only about 10%. Of note: All four Par 3s fall in approach bucket, which skews the numbers a tad.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/subscribe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong>Stats, Data, and Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool at Betsperts Golf<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!KEAC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F638d3e27-e7ab-43ba-b765-ccce152ec770_844x468.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"844\" height=\"468\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/638d3e27-e7ab-43ba-b765-ccce152ec770_844x468.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:468,&quot;width&quot;:844,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:473725,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/189543772?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F638d3e27-e7ab-43ba-b765-ccce152ec770_844x468.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!b1uj!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee3cb469-08b4-40e8-94b7-c611fee800d4_1598x404.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"368\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/ee3cb469-08b4-40e8-94b7-c611fee800d4_1598x404.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:368,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:131719,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/189543772?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee3cb469-08b4-40e8-94b7-c611fee800d4_1598x404.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The risk\/reward factor still looms \u2014 like on the Par 5 sixth hole. You can take on the water to save some distance (RIP <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/bryson-dechambeau\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/bryson-dechambeau\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bryson DeChambeau<\/a><\/a><\/span> in this event) and try to get on in two, or end up carding an 18 like <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/john-daly\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/john-daly\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">John Daly<\/a><\/a><\/span> in 1998. Since 1983, No. 6 has produced 23 scores in the double-digits. That\u2019s the most on PGA TOUR by a large margin.<\/p>\n<p>Now, putting inside 10 feet is the one place where Bay Hill is actually not so bad. In 2024, the field made almost 90% of its putt from inside 10-feet, and over the past five years has been slightly easier to make putts in that range. It\u2019s likely why so many statistically poor putters have spike gains at Bay Hill.<\/p>\n<p>With the wind playing a factor, there has been an inordinate amount of international players who\u2019ve succeeded over the years at Bay Hill. I theorized it would be lower in 2024, now that the API is a signature event featuring all the best PGA players, and that ended up being the case. Lowry (3rd), Grillo (T8), and Ben An (T8) were the only international players inside the Top 10. That shifted back last season with <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/corey-conners\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/corey-conners\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Corey Conners<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sepp-straka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sepp-straka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sepp Straka<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/shane-lowry\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/shane-lowry\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shane Lowry<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/justin-rose\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/justin-rose\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Justin Rose<\/a><\/a><\/span>, Ben An, and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jason-day\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jason-day\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jason Day<\/a><\/a><\/span> all sneaking into the Top 10. By in large, gaining strokes off the tee with accuracy really won out in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Still, Strokes Gained: Approach has been over two times as influential on the Top 5 finishers as SG: Off The Tee, and three times more impactful than SG: Around The Green. The gap between each of the SG stats shrinks if expanded to the Top 20 finishers. Looking at winners only, SG: APP is 2.7 times more impactful than SG: OTT and 4.2 times against SG: ATG. Yes, SG: APP is always the most important stat to look at, however it tends to be more pronounced this week with so many approaches coming from beyond 200 yards.<\/p>\n<p>Much of that has to do with the Par 3s, as they average over 215 yards in length. Rory McIlory, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/nicolai-hojgaard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/nicolai-hojgaard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nicolai Hojgaard<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/collin-morikawa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/collin-morikawa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Collin Morikawa<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/matt-fitzpatrick\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/matt-fitzpatrick\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/a><\/span>, and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ryan-gerard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ryan-gerard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ryan Gerard<\/a><\/a><\/span> have been the best players from Par 3s from this range over the past 18 months.<\/p>\n<p>The greens at Bay Hill have annually played extremely quick in comparison to most courses. The players with the most Strokes Gained: Putting per round on fast greens per round over their past year rounds are: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jake-knapp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jake-knapp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jake Knapp<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sam-burns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sam-burns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sam Burns<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/denny-mccarthy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/denny-mccarthy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Denny McCarthy<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ben-griffin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ben-griffin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ben Griffin<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/harry-hall\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/harry-hall\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Harry Hall<\/a><\/a><\/span>, and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/matt-fitzpatrick\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/matt-fitzpatrick\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/marc-leishman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/marc-leishman\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marc Leishman<\/a><\/a><\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jason-day\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/jason-day\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jason Day<\/a><\/a><\/span> have won both at Bay Hill and Torrey Pines in the past decade. Other Farmers champs <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/harris-english\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/harris-english\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Harris English<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/justin-rose\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/justin-rose\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Justin Rose<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/luke-list\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/luke-list\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Luke List<\/a><\/a>,<\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/max-homa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/max-homa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Max Homa<\/a><\/a><\/span> have multiple Top 10 results at Bay Hill as well. <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/tiger-woods\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/tiger-woods\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tiger Woods<\/a><\/a><\/span> historically dominates both courses. That\u2019s everywhere but Riviera, though.<\/p>\n<h4>2026 <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/arnold-palmer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arnold Palmer<\/a><\/a><\/span> Invitational Picks<\/h4>\n<p><strong><em><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/matt-fitzpatrick\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/matt-fitzpatrick\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 Fitz\u2019 driving and irons are at an all time peak. He\u2019s never been on a better ball striking run in his career. Problem is, it perfectly coincided with an awful putting stretch. It\u2019s not so much that he\u2019s been bad all the time in 2026; it\u2019s just when it has gone wrong, it\u2019s gone really wrong. In his past 13 rounds, Fitzpatrick has lost strokes putting to the field eight times. Not great, also not the worst. Should be manageable, right? NOPE. He\u2019s lost more than a stroke in five of the past six rounds when he\u2019s gone negative, topped off by dropping a laughable -5.75 SG: PUTT over the week at Riviera. Maybe there is something broken with his putting stroke. Or maybe it\u2019s a small sample size or a struggle with Poa Annua. Regardless, I\u2019m betting on a return to regular levels on the greens at Bay Hill. An event Fitzpatrick has played each of the past 10 years and never finished in the negative on these fast, Bermuda greens.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/alex-noren\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/alex-noren\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alex Noren<\/a><\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 It\u2019s been a mixed bag for Noren in 2026 after going nuclear in Europe after the PGA regular season ended. There\u2019s been little things pointing up, though. He\u2019s gotten better in each start, despite the field strength getting stronger every time. Additionally, he\u2019s spiked with his irons three times in his past seven rounds, gaining at least one stroke on the field on approach. The short game remains solid, and his proximity to the rough from 150+ yards is the best in the field. If Noren can clean up driver he can contend if conditions play tough.<\/p>\n<h3>2026 Puerto Rico Open<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Course: Grand Reserve Golf Club (Coco Beach)<\/li>\n<li>Yardage: 7,506<\/li>\n<li>Par: 72<\/li>\n<li>Greens: Paspalum<\/li>\n<li>12 Holes with Water in Play<\/li>\n<li>63 Sand Traps<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Winners<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2025: Karl Villips -26 (By 3 over Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen)<\/li>\n<li>2024: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/brice-garnett\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/brice-garnett\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Brice Garnett<\/a><\/a><\/span> -19 (Playoff over <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/erik-barnes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/erik-barnes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Erik Barnes<\/a><\/a><\/span>)<\/li>\n<li>2023: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/nico-echavarria\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/nico-echavarria\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nico Echavarria<\/a><\/a><\/span> -21 (By 2 over <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/akshay-bhatia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/akshay-bhatia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Akshay Bhatia<\/a><\/a><\/span>)<\/li>\n<li>2022: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ryan-brehm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ryan-brehm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ryan Brehm<\/a><\/a><\/span> -20 (By 6 over <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/max-mcgreevy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/max-mcgreevy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Max McGreevy<\/a><\/a><\/span>)<\/li>\n<li>2021: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/branden-grace\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/branden-grace\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Branden Grace<\/a><\/a><\/span> -19 (1 over Jhonny Vegas)<\/li>\n<li>2020: <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/viktor-hovland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/viktor-hovland\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Viktor Hovland<\/a><\/a><\/span> -20 (By 1 over <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/josh-teater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/josh-teater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Josh Teater<\/a><\/a><\/span>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Picks<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>My early leans are looking at <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/michael-brennan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/michael-brennan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michael Brennan<\/a><\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/steven-fisk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/steven-fisk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Steven Fisk<\/a><\/a><\/span>, and <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/zach-bauchou\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/zach-bauchou\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Zach Bauchou<\/a><\/a><\/span>. But a deeper dive into the Betsperts LIVE leaderboard reveals some interesting deeper options from players who struck the ball great at the Cognizant Classic but just couldn\u2019t putt. The paspalum greens at Grand Reserve are quite slow and should be easier.<\/p>\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/subscribe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Stats, Data, and Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool at Betsperts Golf<\/a><\/h4>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!t9oc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F36483c2c-2f7d-41e9-b2a5-4816ba0d14f6_2062x1076.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"760\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/36483c2c-2f7d-41e9-b2a5-4816ba0d14f6_2062x1076.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:760,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:307427,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/189543772?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F36483c2c-2f7d-41e9-b2a5-4816ba0d14f6_2062x1076.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>There are no historic shotlink data by shot at the PRO, but we do have SG: TOTAL by round available. Here are the players averaging the most strokes per rounds vs the field over the past five years. NOTE: Most of these players only have four rounds.<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!fiKS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8905878f-49ae-4ce9-a8bf-b401eb8f99c3_740x1008.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"740\" height=\"1008\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/8905878f-49ae-4ce9-a8bf-b401eb8f99c3_740x1008.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1008,&quot;width&quot;:740,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:116122,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/189543772?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8905878f-49ae-4ce9-a8bf-b401eb8f99c3_740x1008.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>If you put in a minimum of 8 rounds, you get some of the other names making cameos.<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!cUFf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5f977bc-7a1b-4c4a-9b76-6deda573b245_746x1006.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"746\" height=\"1006\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/c5f977bc-7a1b-4c4a-9b76-6deda573b245_746x1006.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1006,&quot;width&quot;:746,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:113965,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/189543772?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5f977bc-7a1b-4c4a-9b76-6deda573b245_746x1006.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Finally, if you\u2019re looking to go more macro and look at all Paspalum courses, here are the leaders in SG: TOTAL per round over the past two years (Minimum 12 rounds)<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Dewr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53a80064-4a7d-4cf2-9043-e3d221b9f6d5_716x1000.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"716\" height=\"1000\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/53a80064-4a7d-4cf2-9043-e3d221b9f6d5_716x1000.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1000,&quot;width&quot;:716,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:110199,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/189543772?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F53a80064-4a7d-4cf2-9043-e3d221b9f6d5_716x1000.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into tournament and player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf, making his early 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":6252,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14,15],"bs_tags":[70,29,73],"class_list":["post-16804","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_type-fantasy","bs_tag-arnold-palmer-invitational","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-golf-dfs"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/gettyimages-1465120988-612x612-1.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":70,"name":"Arnold 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