2026 Genesis Invitational Quick Bets<\/h4>\n\n- Rory McIlroy<\/a><\/span> +1650<\/li>\n
- Harris English<\/a><\/span> +5500 (With 3 Places)<\/li>\n
- Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/span> +6000 (With 3 Places)<\/li>\n
- Sepp Straka<\/a><\/span> +7500 (With 3 Places)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
BOMBS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Jaosn Day +9000 (With 3 Places)<\/li>\n
- Shane Lowry<\/a><\/span> +11000 (With 3 Places)<\/li>\n
- Corey Conners<\/a><\/span> +20000 (With 3 Places)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
LPGA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Jeeno Thitikul +375<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
KEYNA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Njoroge Njonge Kibugu +70000 (8 Places)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
KENYA FIRST ROUND LEADER<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Njoroge Njonge Kibugu +20000 (5 Places)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
SUBSCRIBE TO THE FREE MAYO MEDIA NEWSLETTER FOR MORE CONTENT<\/a><\/h4>\nAfter Geoff inquired about the Each Way (3 Places) market on Monday, I got Alex Blickle to run the numbers and report on the Tuesday show. Since, you know, he\u2019s smart unlike Geoff and I.<\/p>\n
Alex discovered that the Top 3 each-way bet is actually much more +EV than anyone realized, after running simulations. He explains it in more detail on the show if you want to hear more<\/a>, but these are the results in the different markets for players this week. As you can see, the boost given to the outright odds for each player makes this type of bet more profitable in the long term, while the equity you give up moving from 5 places to 3 places isn\u2019t actually all that substantial. Of course, you actually need to win a few of these bets to realize the EV. They always forget to mention that part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Ho52!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F59f32333-667b-474d-b82f-4c2ede41b9bc_1912x866.jpeg\" "\\"\\"")
<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\nSo, you can see, I went with Rory and a lot of deeper odds this week with the Top 3 out on all of them. Jason Day<\/a><\/span> was the final add last minute\u2026<\/p>\n2026 Genesis Invitational Picks<\/h4>\n
Rory McIlroy<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 Rory allowed five or so holes to completely sink his chances at Pebble Beach. When Rory is losing strokes driving and putting in the same event, chalk that up to a couple of brain farts. His approach play, however, one of the best of the week. At RIV, Rory\u2019s driver will transform back into the weapon to dominate off the tee, being a longer course, while his putting will likely bounce back since he\u2019s been one of the best putters on TOUR over the past two years (+0.35\/per round). After finally picking up his Augusta win, to go along with Quail Hollow and Bay Hill, Riviera is the last of similar tracks he\u2019s yet to take down.<\/p>\nHarris English<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 Tough to go too far down the board at a signature event when the books have compressed all the odds, so English is the man for me. While nothing seems particularly different about his game in 2026, the stats reveal an incredible leap in his driving year-over-year. 16 rounds is a pretty small sample, yet English is gaining almost a stroke per round off the tee, second of all players to Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/span>. That\u2019s +0.75 SG: OTT per round more on average than his last year and a half. While his irons have dipped a bit, in his two starts where he was forced to hit longer irons (like at RIV) he\u2019s been in the positives.<\/p>\nMatt Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 Fresh off the best approach week of career, Fitz is now crushing both driving and iron play to kick off the season. The problem is, he hasn\u2019t been able to chip or putt, two of his historic strengths. While it\u2019s possible his ball striking reverts to a non-elite level, in the off chance he can keep it up and sees his short game return to normal, then we have someone who will be near the top of the leaderboard. If you\u2019re in Canada, outside Ontario, you can get a special boost on Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/span> to +4000<\/a>.<\/p>\nSepp Straka<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 This makes it three weeks in a row for Straka and me. His irons faltered in both weekend rounds on the front nine, only to rebound each time nicely on his way in, leading to a T2. He\u2019s not the typical profile because of his lack of distance, but the key thing was seeing him actually gain strokes with his putter last week. In fact, he gained across the board. Straka sits 4th in the field in SG: T2G in 2026.<\/p>\nJason Day<\/a><\/strong><\/em> \u2014 Day\u2019s approach play had been trending towards elite levels before swinging the other way at Pebble Beach (-3.54) completely.<\/span>\u00a0Despite failing as a popular pick at Torrey, Day gained an impressive +4.3 strokes on approach (in only 3 measured rounds). The driver failed him. I\u2019ll give him a pass on his irons as he\u2019ll be hitting most of his approaches from a completely different bucket of distances at RIV, so we hold our noses and hope it\u2019s the zig of his current zig-zag driving. While certainly not near the best drivers on TOUR, Day has seemingly become an every other week great, either gaining or losing a ton.<\/p>\nStats & Research Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole from Betsperts Golf<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!xy5A!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F24671b16-da57-498c-99c4-01f943fcfc4c_1918x672.png\" "\\"\\"")
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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\nIf the driver shows up for him this week and he can build off the early-season iron play, while paying forward his excellent ability to chip on these tricky green complexes, maybe we have a runner if you squint hard enough. In the past five years, no player who has played more than two rounds at Riviera has gained as many strokes around the green per round as Day. Likely why he has back-to-back Top 10s at this venue.<\/p>\n
Around the Green Leaders at Riviera cc Since 2020<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!M3IU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2f05d35-b878-43b9-9041-ef7ed6b26e46_1834x902.png\" "\\"\\"")
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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\nShane Lowry<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 Like Straka, Lowry lacks distance off the tee, but the Irishman always seems to thrive on these more demanding, classical tracks. He was excellent in the ball striking department at Pebble, picked up a T3 in Dubai at the end of January, and was solid here the last time he played RIV in 2023. That year he finished 12th T2G and was hampered by terrible putting. Something that has historically swung year-to-year for players on these greens.<\/p>\nCorey Conners<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 I have no faith Conners will actually do anything this week, but I\u2019m just buying low on this crazy long number in case he remembers what he\u2019s supposed to do well. His ball striking was fine at the Sony Open, and we\u2019re judging his slide in stats based on six bad rounds. We\u2019ve seen him spike at Bay Hill, Augusta, and Quail Hollow in the past, and Riviera tends to see players in no form pop up out of nowhere as long as their skills match.<\/p>\n2026 Genesis Invitational H2Hs<\/h4>\n
I\u2019m not normally a big H2H matchup guy, but I was poking around in the market at Coolbet while talking to Keith on Wednesday\u2019s show and found three I really liked. So, naturally, I talked to Coolbet and got them to put all three together and boost up the odds. If you\u2019re in Canada, outside Ontario, you can get this boost under the PME Exclusives Tab<\/p>\n
Get the PME Boosts and a deposit BONUS at Coolbet<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!ND33!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb67370a6-91b6-4d12-87ae-94696b1291d1_458x516.png\" "\\"\\"")
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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n2026 Genesis Invitational HOT LINKS<\/h4>\n\n- 2026 Genesis Invitational FINAL Bets, Tiger Stories & One-and-Done<\/a><\/li>\n
- 2026 Genesis Invitational Picks, Bets, One and Done Picks<\/a><\/li>\n
- 2026 Genesis Invitational DraftKings Picks & Each Way Betting Data<\/a><\/li>\n
- 2026 Genesis Invitational Research, Sleepers & Course Breakdown<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
2026 Genesis Invitational Weather<\/h4>\n
There has been a lot more rain than usual in the Los Angeles area both this winter and this week. In fact, it looks like it will continue sprinkling on Thursday, and there will be some wind along with it. Not sure if this is enough to halt play, but since the field is only 72 players, playing in threesomes for the first two rounds, it should affect everyone pretty evenly. There\u2019s less than a five-hour gap between the first and last group on Thursday, so on either pole, there could be a slight advantage to the later set if play isn\u2019t delayed and they get to beat up on a softer course even in slightly higher winds. It really shouldn\u2019t affect your process too much, as most of the golfers you want to pick are going off later anyway. Of the 10 highest projected owned players on DraftKings, only No. 7, Jake Knapp<\/a><\/span> (Projected 16.80%), is teeing off in the first seven groups.<\/p>\nThe rest of the week is forecast to offer great golf conditions with almost no wind. Kinda cold, but nothing extreme.<\/p>\n
Windtower: Century City<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!1dkO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4ce6c244-320a-4557-97d2-83d193192c7a_1438x490.png\" "\\"\\"")
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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n2026 Genesis Invitational Tee Times<\/h4>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!uGOz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F48cf84ec-18d0-4bea-abe1-26960ea10da5_1402x1236.png\" "\\"\\"")
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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n2026 Genesis Invitational DraftKings<\/h4>\n
Alex Blickle and I broke down the field from a DK perspective<\/a>, made lineups, and, once again, started with building Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/span> lineups. This week (IMO) it\u2019s tougher to make these sorts of lineups work, for a few reasons:<\/p>\n\n- Fewer players to actually choose from. (72 players from 80 Players)<\/li>\n
- There\u2019s a cut line (Top 50 & Ties + all players within 10 strokes), so you\u2019re not guaranteed all four rounds from the scrub players.<\/li>\n
- Riviera is far more demanding of an overall game than Pebble Beach, so bottom-end players who can run hot wedges and putters can\u2019t compete here as easily as they could last week.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
This is being reflected in Scheffler\u2019s projected ownership. Now, there\u2019s a chance this is way off, but it\u2019s trending to be by far his lowest level in some time\u2026<\/p>\n
Stats & Research Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole from Betsperts Golf<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!y_k0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb7a89c42-2e02-4dce-aec5-57918e738ba6_1386x736.png\" "\\"\\"")
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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\nIf you do want to make some Scheffler builds, there are a few $6,000 players I\u2019d feel comfortable with at RIV taking a chance on\u2026<\/p>\n
Sam Stevens<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\nStevens\u2019 off-the-tee profile may translate better to Riviera than some of the alternatives in this price range, particularly compared to players who bleed strokes with the driver. Fairly good with his long irons, too.<\/p>\n
Michael Kim<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\nRather than being a target based on upside, Kim is more a functional piece in roster construction, a player who allows you to complete a stars-and-scrubs lineup without completely sacrificing the ability to finish four rounds. While he\u2019s been struggling off the tee, a lot of that is three balls OB on the 18th hole at Pebble Beach. There\u2019s more room to miss at Riviera without penalty, and Kim may be able to save himself from too many crooked numbers with his elite short game, especially from the sand.<\/p>\n
Plus, Kim has been one of the best players from the rough 150+ yards and out so far in 2026. Almost 75% of approach shots will come from that distance this week.<\/p>\n
Stats & Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!fZjM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9acc8cc-ae0b-4d39-bfea-74c4f0a712bb_1856x180.png\" "\\"\\"")
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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!msyC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff001a4e-6151-413e-a4f0-94fdd66e8893_586x327.png\" "\\"\\"")
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<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\nRyan Fox<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\nFox is long off the tee and has started to play better the past two weeks. As someone who has popped in majors over the past two years, paying off a low price at a US Open-style course is certainly doable.<\/p>\n
BOMBS<\/strong><\/p>\n LPGA<\/strong><\/p>\n KEYNA<\/strong><\/p>\n KENYA FIRST ROUND LEADER<\/strong><\/p>\n After Geoff inquired about the Each Way (3 Places) market on Monday, I got Alex Blickle to run the numbers and report on the Tuesday show. Since, you know, he\u2019s smart unlike Geoff and I.<\/p>\n Alex discovered that the Top 3 each-way bet is actually much more +EV than anyone realized, after running simulations. He explains it in more detail on the show if you want to hear more<\/a>, but these are the results in the different markets for players this week. As you can see, the boost given to the outright odds for each player makes this type of bet more profitable in the long term, while the equity you give up moving from 5 places to 3 places isn\u2019t actually all that substantial. Of course, you actually need to win a few of these bets to realize the EV. They always forget to mention that part.<\/p>\n So, you can see, I went with Rory and a lot of deeper odds this week with the Top 3 out on all of them. Jason Day<\/a><\/span> was the final add last minute\u2026<\/p>\n Rory McIlroy<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 Rory allowed five or so holes to completely sink his chances at Pebble Beach. When Rory is losing strokes driving and putting in the same event, chalk that up to a couple of brain farts. His approach play, however, one of the best of the week. At RIV, Rory\u2019s driver will transform back into the weapon to dominate off the tee, being a longer course, while his putting will likely bounce back since he\u2019s been one of the best putters on TOUR over the past two years (+0.35\/per round). After finally picking up his Augusta win, to go along with Quail Hollow and Bay Hill, Riviera is the last of similar tracks he\u2019s yet to take down.<\/p>\n Harris English<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 Tough to go too far down the board at a signature event when the books have compressed all the odds, so English is the man for me. While nothing seems particularly different about his game in 2026, the stats reveal an incredible leap in his driving year-over-year. 16 rounds is a pretty small sample, yet English is gaining almost a stroke per round off the tee, second of all players to Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/span>. That\u2019s +0.75 SG: OTT per round more on average than his last year and a half. While his irons have dipped a bit, in his two starts where he was forced to hit longer irons (like at RIV) he\u2019s been in the positives.<\/p>\n Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 Fresh off the best approach week of career, Fitz is now crushing both driving and iron play to kick off the season. The problem is, he hasn\u2019t been able to chip or putt, two of his historic strengths. While it\u2019s possible his ball striking reverts to a non-elite level, in the off chance he can keep it up and sees his short game return to normal, then we have someone who will be near the top of the leaderboard. If you\u2019re in Canada, outside Ontario, you can get a special boost on Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a><\/span> to +4000<\/a>.<\/p>\n Sepp Straka<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 This makes it three weeks in a row for Straka and me. His irons faltered in both weekend rounds on the front nine, only to rebound each time nicely on his way in, leading to a T2. He\u2019s not the typical profile because of his lack of distance, but the key thing was seeing him actually gain strokes with his putter last week. In fact, he gained across the board. Straka sits 4th in the field in SG: T2G in 2026.<\/p>\n Jason Day<\/a><\/strong><\/em> \u2014 Day\u2019s approach play had been trending towards elite levels before swinging the other way at Pebble Beach (-3.54) completely.<\/span>\u00a0Despite failing as a popular pick at Torrey, Day gained an impressive +4.3 strokes on approach (in only 3 measured rounds). The driver failed him. I\u2019ll give him a pass on his irons as he\u2019ll be hitting most of his approaches from a completely different bucket of distances at RIV, so we hold our noses and hope it\u2019s the zig of his current zig-zag driving. While certainly not near the best drivers on TOUR, Day has seemingly become an every other week great, either gaining or losing a ton.<\/p>\n If the driver shows up for him this week and he can build off the early-season iron play, while paying forward his excellent ability to chip on these tricky green complexes, maybe we have a runner if you squint hard enough. In the past five years, no player who has played more than two rounds at Riviera has gained as many strokes around the green per round as Day. Likely why he has back-to-back Top 10s at this venue.<\/p>\n Around the Green Leaders at Riviera cc Since 2020<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Shane Lowry<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 Like Straka, Lowry lacks distance off the tee, but the Irishman always seems to thrive on these more demanding, classical tracks. He was excellent in the ball striking department at Pebble, picked up a T3 in Dubai at the end of January, and was solid here the last time he played RIV in 2023. That year he finished 12th T2G and was hampered by terrible putting. Something that has historically swung year-to-year for players on these greens.<\/p>\n Corey Conners<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/strong> \u2014 I have no faith Conners will actually do anything this week, but I\u2019m just buying low on this crazy long number in case he remembers what he\u2019s supposed to do well. His ball striking was fine at the Sony Open, and we\u2019re judging his slide in stats based on six bad rounds. We\u2019ve seen him spike at Bay Hill, Augusta, and Quail Hollow in the past, and Riviera tends to see players in no form pop up out of nowhere as long as their skills match.<\/p>\n I\u2019m not normally a big H2H matchup guy, but I was poking around in the market at Coolbet while talking to Keith on Wednesday\u2019s show and found three I really liked. So, naturally, I talked to Coolbet and got them to put all three together and boost up the odds. If you\u2019re in Canada, outside Ontario, you can get this boost under the PME Exclusives Tab<\/p>\n There has been a lot more rain than usual in the Los Angeles area both this winter and this week. In fact, it looks like it will continue sprinkling on Thursday, and there will be some wind along with it. Not sure if this is enough to halt play, but since the field is only 72 players, playing in threesomes for the first two rounds, it should affect everyone pretty evenly. There\u2019s less than a five-hour gap between the first and last group on Thursday, so on either pole, there could be a slight advantage to the later set if play isn\u2019t delayed and they get to beat up on a softer course even in slightly higher winds. It really shouldn\u2019t affect your process too much, as most of the golfers you want to pick are going off later anyway. Of the 10 highest projected owned players on DraftKings, only No. 7, Jake Knapp<\/a><\/span> (Projected 16.80%), is teeing off in the first seven groups.<\/p>\n The rest of the week is forecast to offer great golf conditions with almost no wind. Kinda cold, but nothing extreme.<\/p>\n Alex Blickle and I broke down the field from a DK perspective<\/a>, made lineups, and, once again, started with building Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/span> lineups. This week (IMO) it\u2019s tougher to make these sorts of lineups work, for a few reasons:<\/p>\n This is being reflected in Scheffler\u2019s projected ownership. Now, there\u2019s a chance this is way off, but it\u2019s trending to be by far his lowest level in some time\u2026<\/p>\n If you do want to make some Scheffler builds, there are a few $6,000 players I\u2019d feel comfortable with at RIV taking a chance on\u2026<\/p>\n Sam Stevens<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Stevens\u2019 off-the-tee profile may translate better to Riviera than some of the alternatives in this price range, particularly compared to players who bleed strokes with the driver. Fairly good with his long irons, too.<\/p>\n Michael Kim<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Rather than being a target based on upside, Kim is more a functional piece in roster construction, a player who allows you to complete a stars-and-scrubs lineup without completely sacrificing the ability to finish four rounds. While he\u2019s been struggling off the tee, a lot of that is three balls OB on the 18th hole at Pebble Beach. There\u2019s more room to miss at Riviera without penalty, and Kim may be able to save himself from too many crooked numbers with his elite short game, especially from the sand.<\/p>\n Plus, Kim has been one of the best players from the rough 150+ yards and out so far in 2026. Almost 75% of approach shots will come from that distance this week.<\/p>\n Ryan Fox<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Fox is long off the tee and has started to play better the past two weeks. As someone who has popped in majors over the past two years, paying off a low price at a US Open-style course is certainly doable.<\/p>\n\n
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SUBSCRIBE TO THE FREE MAYO MEDIA NEWSLETTER FOR MORE CONTENT<\/a><\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n2026 Genesis Invitational Picks<\/h4>\n
Stats & Research Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole from Betsperts Golf<\/a><\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n2026 Genesis Invitational H2Hs<\/h4>\n
Get the PME Boosts and a deposit BONUS at Coolbet<\/a><\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n2026 Genesis Invitational HOT LINKS<\/h4>\n
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2026 Genesis Invitational Weather<\/h4>\n
Windtower: Century City<\/a><\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n2026 Genesis Invitational Tee Times<\/h4>\n
<\/p>\n2026 Genesis Invitational DraftKings<\/h4>\n
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Stats & Research Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole from Betsperts Golf<\/a><\/h4>\n
<\/p>\nStats & Data Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf<\/a><\/h4>\n
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