{"id":16593,"date":"2026-02-11T21:43:49","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T21:43:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&#038;p=16593"},"modified":"2026-02-11T21:43:49","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T21:43:49","slug":"2026-pebble-beach-cheatsheet-bets-picks-weather-draftkings-notes","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/2026-pebble-beach-cheatsheet-bets-picks-weather-draftkings-notes\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 Pebble Beach Cheatsheet: Bets, Picks, Weather, DraftKings Notes"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 data-pm-slice=\"0 0 []\">2026 Pebble Beach Bets<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/russell-henley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Russell Henley<\/a><\/span> +3300 (<a href=\"https:\/\/shorturl.at\/CHfyW\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Boosted to +3800 at Coolbet<\/a>)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sepp-straka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sepp Straka<\/a><\/span> +5500 (8 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/akshay-bhatia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Akshay Bhatia<\/a><\/span> +6000 (8 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ryan-gerard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ryan Gerard<\/a><\/span> +6600 (8 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/alex-noren\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alex Noren<\/a><\/span> +8000 (8 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/aaron-rai\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aaron Rai<\/a><\/span> +10000 (8 Places)<\/li>\n<li><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/michael-kim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michael Kim<\/a><\/span> +10000 (8 Places)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/p\/2026-pebble-beach-picks-rankings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong>FULL COURSE &amp; STATS BREAKDOWN: 2026 Pebble Beach Picks, Rankings, Stats, Course Preview<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<h3>2026 Pebble Beach Picks<\/h3>\n<p><em>I don\u2019t feel super comfortable at the top of the board this week, so I\u2019m investing my money on longer shots with the additional Top 5\/8 each-way wagers and hoping to squeeze two of them on the leaderboard come Sunday. If I can get two of them up there, there\u2019s a chance they pay off the whole outright with it. But with the weekend weather potentially chaotic, I want to keep some money on hand to fire if the right situation arises.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong>SUBSCRIBE TO THE FREE MAYO MEDIA NEWSLETTER FOR MORE CONTENT<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/russell-henley\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Russell Henley<\/a><\/span><\/strong> \u2014 While it may appear as if the bloom is off the rose with the calendar switch, Henley\u2019s actually well above his usual performance on approach play. He was waylaid at Waialae with a wonky driver and simply couldn\u2019t make enough putts at the Stadium Course to truly contend at the AMEX. He still has T19\/T9 results to begin the year. Henley is, however, gaining an outrageous 1.56 SG: APP over those two starts. If he can keep his accuracy up off the tee, continue this amazing iron play, and not gag away all his chances on missed short putts, he\u2019s primed to build off his T5 at Pebble Beach a year ago.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/sepp-straka\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sepp Straka<\/a><\/span><\/strong> \u2014 Straka\u2019s ball striking isn\u2019t all that dissimilar from a year ago, when he won twice. He just can\u2019t really roll it right now. Which isn\u2019t new. Straka is a miss-or-make-everything kind of guy. Plus, he was running away with this event a year ago before hitting the skids Saturday, allowing the entire field back into it. Hopefully, he learned over the past 12 months.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/akshay-bhatia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Akshay Bhatia<\/a><\/span><\/strong> \u2014 Fresh off a scorching irons week in Phoenix, Akshay has a lot lining up for him at Pebble. Soft conditions early, gusty conditions late, and slower greens where he\u2019s excelled in his short career. He finally got back to driving the ball at an above-average rate last week, too. A first for him since last September.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/ryan-gerard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ryan Gerard<\/a><\/span><\/strong> \u2014 If you can\u2019t make putts at Pebble, you\u2019re dust. That would seem to disqualify Gerard. But here\u2019s the thing: what if he\u2019s figured it out? We\u2019re always quick to buy into a little bit of form with the driver and irons, yet immediately disregard a reversal in putting. Now, I know why this is. The flat stick, even for the best putters, is the club with the highest variance. I get it. But Gerard has been awesome on the greens for the past two months, and no one has played more worldwide to put it into practice, gaining significantly in each of his first three PGA starts in 2026. No, I don\u2019t have data from the Mauritius Open, sorry. Clearly, he\u2019s in form with four second-place finishes (and a T11) over his past five starts and showed off some excellent ball control in the wind over the weekend last year at Valero.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/alex-noren\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alex Noren<\/a><\/span> &amp; <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/aaron-rai\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aaron Rai<\/a><\/span><\/strong> \u2014 On paper, both Euros are the prototype players you want as long shots at Pebble Beach. The problem is that both have been terrible to start 2026. Now, both did notch wins during the fall on the DP World Tour, so great form isn\u2019t all that far in the past. But we\u2019ve seen Noren and Rai beat up on point-and-click coastal courses with slow greens in the past. And because of their slow starts, we\u2019re getting very generous numbers, which opens up a sizable payout even if they only place in the top 8.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"\/golfer\/michael-kim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michael Kim<\/a><\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"> \u2014 Kim checks a shocking amount of boxes for what is demanded at Pebble: He\u2019s the best sand player in the field, is one of a handful to still be Top 15 in the field in both over-emphasized proximity ranges 50-100 yards and 100-150 Yards.<\/span> Plus, as a Cal guy, he\u2019s well-versed in navigating California Poa. The driver was solid in Phoenix (usually his biggest hold back), and his approach numbers are down because of two really horrible shots Saturday. He actually gained on approach in three of the four rounds despite being in the negative for the tournament.<\/p>\n<h3>2026 Pebble Beach Hot Links<\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/lP4MQNPItao\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">2026 Pebble Beach FINAL Bets, Weather Edge &amp; One-and-Done<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/AisN6AjkpQw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">2026 Pebble Beach Picks, Bets, One and Done Picks<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/yVzZa7yMffE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">2026 Pebble Beach DraftKings Picks &amp; Underdog Drafts<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Yy1_PapRqJ0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">2026 Pebble Beach Research, Sleepers &amp; Course Breakdown<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Y54EKqR21g8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Super Bowl Recap, Half Time Show | Judge Cust: Marry My Step Sister, Pretzels are not Chips<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>2026 Pebble Beach Weather<\/h3>\n<p>The field will be split between Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach GL on Thursday and Friday before everyone migrates to Pebble for the weekend. The wind looks manageable for the first two rounds, although it\u2019s expected to be cold, with a projected high of 55 degrees. There could also be a sprinkle of rain on Friday afternoon. Since Pebble is directly on the coast, it\u2019ll likely feel colder there than at Spyglass, which has tree protection.<\/p>\n<p>Now, come the weekend, the winds arrive. I started tracking this on Saturday, and each day the bad weather has crept earlier and earlier into the forecast. Initially, it looked like Saturday would be calm with wind (but no rain) arriving on Sunday. Clearly, the forecast has changed. Temps will remain cool, and players will have to deal with swirling coastal conditions. Anecdotally, Europeans and those with DP World Tour experience tend to have more reps in this type of weather. That doesn\u2019t mean they\u2019re superior, however.<\/p>\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/www.windfinder.com\/forecast\/pebble_beach_lone_cypress\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Windtower: Pebble Beach \/ Lone Cypress<\/a><\/h4>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!0DoY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d392939-49d1-4fa9-b4f7-0453e733ae25_1468x1288.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"1277\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/2d392939-49d1-4fa9-b4f7-0453e733ae25_1468x1288.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1277,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:318923,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/187670910?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2d392939-49d1-4fa9-b4f7-0453e733ae25_1468x1288.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>There\u2019s not a ton of golf played on the PGA TOUR in sub-60 degree weather, but the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf has all those rounds tracked. Here are the top players in 43-57 degrees weather from the past three years (minimum 8 Rounds). Of note: It\u2019s a very limited sample.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/subscribe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong>Stats &amp; Research Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole from Betsperts Golf<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Ye-c!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facb72f89-0e13-4df2-973c-3d0985dec996_1658x900.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"790\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/acb72f89-0e13-4df2-973c-3d0985dec996_1658x900.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:790,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:242701,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/187670910?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facb72f89-0e13-4df2-973c-3d0985dec996_1658x900.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<h4>2026 Pebble Beach DraftKings<\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/yVzZa7yMffE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Alex Blickle and I broke down the field from a DK perspective<\/a>, made lineups, and reviewed WM Phoenix Open data on Scottie vs. non-Scottie lineups (More on that below). If you care what I think, I\u2019m in favor of a combination of Tommy\/Rose\/Henely\/Xander to start a lot of lineups. From the bottom, I\u2019d run out <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/michael-kim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Michael Kim<\/a><\/span>, <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/chris-kirk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chris Kirk<\/a><\/span>, and\/or <span class=\"unlink-player\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/emiliano-grillo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Emiliano Grillo<\/a><\/span> as my cheap options.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/subscribe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\"><strong>Stats &amp; Research Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole from Betsperts Golf<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\">\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"sizing-normal aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!dxlU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea42fbd5-94c7-4bfe-8a48-b26b67253f14_1372x564.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1372\" height=\"564\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/ea42fbd5-94c7-4bfe-8a48-b26b67253f14_1372x564.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:564,&quot;width&quot;:1372,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:120127,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/mayomedia.substack.com\/i\/187670910?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea42fbd5-94c7-4bfe-8a48-b26b67253f14_1372x564.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" \/><\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<h4>Scottie vs Non-Scottie Lineups<\/h4>\n<p>The numbers between Scottie and Non-Scottie lineups from Phoenix. Here\u2019s what the results showed from the $55 GPP Sample<strong>. <\/strong><\/p>\n<h4>Floor: Scottie Lineups Were Great<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Scottie lineups averaged 4.9 cuts made<\/li>\n<li>Non-Scottie lineups averaged 3.6 cuts made<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That\u2019s a massive difference. And importantly, it wasn\u2019t just Scottie making the cut \u2014 the cheap punt plays in his builds also made cuts at a high rate.<\/p>\n<p>So from a safety perspective, Scottie builds worked.<\/p>\n<h4>Ceiling: That\u2019s Where It Fell Apart<\/h4>\n<p>When looking at upside metrics (Top 20s\/Top 10s):<\/p>\n<p><strong>3+ Top 20s<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Scottie lineups: 31.7%<\/li>\n<li>Non-Scottie lineups: 35.8%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Small edge to balanced builds.<\/p>\n<p><strong>4+ Top 20s<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Scottie lineups: 4.5%<\/li>\n<li>Non-Scottie lineups: 14.8%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>More than 3x more likely without Scottie.<\/p>\n<p><strong>5 Top 20s<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>6.3x more likely without Scottie<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>4 Top 10s<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Scottie lineups: <strong>0%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Non-Scottie: 2.2%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Takeaway<\/h4>\n<p>Scottie builds:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Raise your floor (cuts made)<\/li>\n<li>Cap your ceiling (not enough high-finishing combinations)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>To win tournaments \u2014 especially small-field single entries \u2014 you need:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Multiple players contending<\/li>\n<li>Bonus points stacking<\/li>\n<li>Correlated upside<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And the cheap players required to jam in Scottie don\u2019t carry enough top-10 equity.<\/p>\n<p>Contest Selection Matters\u2026<\/p>\n<h4>Small-field single entry ($55, $200)<\/h4>\n<p>You <em>don\u2019t need<\/em> an ultra-rare combo.<br \/>\n\u2192 Fading Scottie creates a cleaner path to first.<\/p>\n<h4>Massive-field MME ($5\/$25 with 100k+ entries)<\/h4>\n<p>If Scottie wins, someone will have him with the right cheap guys.<br \/>\n\u2192 Now chasing the unlikely combo makes more sense.<\/p>\n<h4>Signature Event Twist (No Cut)<\/h4>\n<p>This week changes things:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Cheap players are stronger than usual<\/li>\n<li>No missed-cut risk<\/li>\n<li>$7,200 average remaining salary with Scottie gives access to legit upside names<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That makes Scottie builds more viable than last week, but:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ownership likely climbs to ~30%<\/li>\n<li>If the leaderboard gets balanced (Henley, Cantlay, Fitz, Day, Lowry, etc.), Scottie builds could still get blocked out since taking Scheffler will make those combos impossible.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pat Mayo&#8217;s 2026 Pebble Beach Cheatsheet: Bets, Picks, Weather, DraftKings Notes<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":6136,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14,15],"bs_tags":[145,29,73],"class_list":["post-16593","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_type-fantasy","bs_tag-att-pebble-beach-pro-am","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-golf-dfs"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/GettyImages-635174.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":145,"name":"AT&amp;T Pebble Beach Pro-Am","slug":"att-pebble-beach-pro-am"},{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"},{"id":73,"name":"Golf DFS","slug":"golf-dfs"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"},{"id":15,"name":"Fantasy"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Pat Mayo","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-17-163255-150x150.png"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"false","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/16593","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6136"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=16593"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=16593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}