{"id":16476,"date":"2026-02-03T17:29:26","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T17:29:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&p=16476"},"modified":"2026-02-04T15:03:38","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T15:03:38","slug":"2026-wm-phoenix-open-noonans-outright-picks","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/2026-wm-phoenix-open-noonans-outright-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 WM Phoenix Open \u2013 Noonan\u2019s Outright Picks"},"content":{"rendered":"

The WM Phoenix Open, aka “The People’s Open,” has changed drastically over the years and now fits perfectly as the best Super Bowl pregame show on Sunday afternoon. With over 700,000 in attendance, it’s equal parts tailgate party, Mardi Gras vibes, and golf all rolled into one four-day weekend in the Arizona desert. The best part is that we’re back to four rounds on one course, The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale, after three straight weeks of course rotation events.<\/span><\/p>\n

TPC Scottsdale is a pretty straightforward track, but the event has grown in gravitas each year. Even though it’s no longer one of the Tour’s “Signature Events<\/span>“<\/span> by name, it’s still drawing a solid field, led by the best player in the world and two-time WM Phoenix Open Champion, Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/span><\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is a 7,266-yard par-71 track, a ball-strikers paradise at altitude. The final few holes at TPC Scottsdale make for an intriguing finish to each round, with risk-reward choices all over the back nine. The winning score has only been 20-under par three times in the past 18 years, and in the last five editions, the average score has been just -0.89 per round. Success at TPC Scottsdale has consistently favored elite drivers and skilled ball-strikers, and it’s also one of the venues with predictive course history. It’s not something that I lean into most weeks, but previous success here should be considered, and at least, should be used as a tie-breaker if you’re considering two golfers close in price or in a matchup.<\/span><\/p>\n

You’ll hear and read about the importance of ‘Total Driving<\/span>‘<\/span> this week, and while I <\/span>don’t<\/span> disagree<\/span>, I want to poke a hole in the stat itself. Total Driving combines driving distance and driving accuracy, using a player’s rank in both stats to create a single metric. On the surface, I understand what it’s trying to do, but we can go about it differently. <\/span><\/p>\n

My biggest issue with Total Driving is its reliance on driving accuracy. Driving accuracy is a binary stat that doesn’t truly tell us what we’re looking for this week in Scottsdale. The rough here is short and doesn’t present the field with many challenges, but with native desert brush and water in play on a handful of holes, we don’t want golfers who can’t control their driving accuracy, since this is not a place to club down. In the Rabbit Hole, we can look at Distance From the Edge of the Fairway (DFEF), which <\/span>tells a far better story<\/span><\/a> this week than driving accuracy.<\/span><\/p>\n

For more course details, check out <\/span>Ron’s<\/span><\/a> course preview<\/span><\/a>. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the TPC Scottsdale <\/span>stats page<\/span><\/a>, and the <\/span>Tournament Cheat Sheet.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Podcast: <\/span>Apple<\/span><\/a> | <\/span>Spotify<\/span><\/a><\/h2>\n

YouTube: <\/span>Betsperts Golf<\/span><\/a><\/h2>\n

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Key <\/span>Rabbit Hole<\/span><\/a> Stats This Week:<\/span><\/h3>\n