{"id":16406,"date":"2026-01-27T17:15:30","date_gmt":"2026-01-27T17:15:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&p=16406"},"modified":"2026-01-27T17:38:11","modified_gmt":"2026-01-27T17:38:11","slug":"2026-farmers-insurance-open-noonans-outright-picks","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/2026-farmers-insurance-open-noonans-outright-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 Farmers Insurance Open \u2013 Noonan\u2019s Outright Picks"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Si Woo Kim<\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/span> gave us a sweat for a bit at last week\u2019s American Express, but in the end, he folded like a cheap shirt against the inevitable force that is Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/span>. What Scheffler is doing is remarkable, and outright bettors shouldn\u2019t shy away from the \u201cWithout Scheffler\u201d markets any time he\u2019s in the field. There\u2019s an element of this being a prisoner-of-the-moment take, but this moment is now in Year 4. Per No Laying Up, Sheffler\u2019s now won 42% of his starts since switching to the mallet putter a few years ago.<\/p>\n

The good news for us this week is that Scheffler isn\u2019t teeing it up at Torrey Pines, so we can attack the board. We do have 10 of the top 20 players in the OWGR in this week\u2019s field, plus the return of Brooks Koepka<\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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This week, the field will split the first two days between the North and South courses, with the top 65 (and ties) playing the final two rounds played on one of the Tour’s toughest tracks, the aforementioned South Course. After keeping some of the tee boxes and adjustments from the 2021 U.S. Open, it’s now the longest track on the Tour at 7,765 from the tips. It features thick, penal rough, narrow fairways and small Poa Annua greens, which are notoriously difficult to putt on, especially late in the day. Course history also matters here, as 17 of the last 20 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open have had a top-10 at this event prior to their win.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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Other than the one round on the North Course, which plays at 7,200 yards and nearly two strokes under par on average, the scoring this week will be the complete opposite of the birdie-fests we saw last week. The South Course is the seventh-most difficult layout on the Tour, with a -0.07 scoring average relative to par. It offers no respite, requiring players to utilize every club in their bag.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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Torrey Pines poses a significant challenge to the field with its long layout, narrow fairways, and 4-inch rough. At just 28 yards wide on average, the fairways are the fifth-narrowest on Tour, making distance and carry off the tee crucial, especially with the cooler January air. Even though we see driver usage about 12% higher here versus the Tour average, the field averages only 293 yards in driving distance. The course will likely play firmer than it did last year, and hopefully with less wind, but you’re not getting much roll on these fairways and basically none at all in the rough.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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Driving accuracy is challenging, with only a 51% success rate, but hitting fairways isn’t crucial for success on this course. Many players often end up in the rough, giving longer hitters an advantage with shorter iron shots to reach the greens. The South Course generates the highest number of approach shots from over 200 yards on Tour. Approximately 55% of second shots are taken from distances greater than 175 yards.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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The thick, rough, and small undulating greens at Torrey Pines South make short-game skills and scrambling abilities crucial for gaining strokes. Around-the-green shots here come from the thick 4-inch rough, and happen about 25% more often than at a standard PGA Tour stop. The South Course is the toughest on the PGA Tour for making putts within 5 to 15 feet \u2014there are no easy shots here. The greens run about 12.5 on the stimpmeter, which is faster than average, presenting a challenge due to the slick Poa surfaces. This California Poa can be inconsistent, especially later in the day, making it a struggle for many players who aren’t used to it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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For more course details, check out Ron’s<\/a> course preview<\/a>. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the South and North Course stats page<\/a>, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.<\/a>\n<\/div>\n
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Podcast: Apple<\/a> | Spotify<\/a><\/h2>\n

YouTube: Betsperts Golf<\/a><\/h2>\n
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Key Rabbit Hole<\/a> Stats This Week:<\/h3>\n