2026 American Express Betting Card<\/h4>\nWINNER<\/h5>\n\n- Henley +2500<\/li>\n
- Griffin +2700<\/li>\n
- Si WOOO +4000 (Number still at Coolbet<\/a>)<\/li>\n
- N. Taylor +8000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
BOMBS<\/h5>\n\n- Smalley +10000 (With 8 Places)<\/li>\n
- M. McCarty +12500 (With 8 Places)<\/li>\n
- Keefer +12500 (With 8 Places)<\/li>\n
- Kirk +20000 (With 8 Places)<\/li>\n
- Bauchou +100000 (With 8 Places)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
FIRST ROUND LEADER<\/h5>\n
NONE THIS WEEK<\/p>\n
2026 American Express HOT LINKS<\/h4>\nAMEX Bets, Weather & One-and-Done<\/a><\/h4>\nAMEX Picks, Bets, Sony Recap<\/a><\/h4>\nAMEX DraftKings Picks & Underdog Drafts<\/a><\/h4>\nAMEX Research, Sleepers & Course Breakdown<\/a><\/h4>\nNFL Champ Games Spread Picks, Cust Corner, Judge Cust<\/a><\/h4>\nTools Notes<\/h2>\n
If you\u2019ve logged on to Fantasy National, you\u2019ll notice the switch over, and the update has begun. Everyone has Rabbit Hole accounts with their FN subs now. But, as always, there\u2019s a hiccup for some people. If you can\u2019t log in to the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf, email support@fantasynational.com and they\u2019ll get you a login. Sorry about that. We\u2019re almost all the way there.<\/em><\/p>\n2026 American Express PICKS<\/h2>\nRussell Henley<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\nHe\u2019s never experienced the success you\u2019d expect from him at PGA West, but he hasn\u2019t played this event since 2022, and he did come in T14 that season.<\/span>\u00a0Now four years in the future, Henley\u2019s a top 10 player in the world and still possesses the accuracy, wedges, and putting that are over-indexed at this tournament. Originally, I was set to bet Ben Griffin<\/a><\/span>, since I had them rated about the same. Then, Henley opened with the bigger number, so I went there.<\/p>\nBen Griffin<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\nThen I woke up Wednesday morning, and Griffin had slid down the betting board, so it\u2019s both now! Obviously, Griffin has taken a leap over the past 12 months. He\u2019s now a three-time winner and returns to a site that was plenty comfortable for him before he was a Top 10-ranked player in the world. Griffin\u2019s gotten better in each of his three AMEX starts (T7\/T9\/T32), on the back of excellent putting performances on the greens at the stadium course. In six career rounds, he\u2019s gained a gaudy +2.37 SG: PUTT\/Round. Now, in 2026, Griffin has morphed into a top-tier T2G player as well, while excelling from 50-125 yards. A proximity range seen more at this event than any other on TOUR.<\/p>\n
Si WOO Kim<\/strong><\/h3>\nA former champ, Si WOOOOOOO, was on fire ball-striking over the weekend at Sony and has a history of beating up on Pete Dye tracks. Now, his putter remained as bad as usual, but he does have a history of rolling it well at PGA West. He\u2019s gained on these greens four of his past five years, averaging +1.75 SG PUTT\/round in those years.<\/p>\n
Nick Taylor<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\nFresh off a respectable title defense at Sony, Taylor too has tumbled down on the odds board. This is an irons and putting event, the two traits Taylor seems to spike in every half year or so.<\/p>\n
Alex Smalley<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\nNormally, I\u2019d hesitate to back Smalley at an event that requires so many putts to get into contention, yet, after digging into his putting splits, Smalley\u2019s best surface is actually Poa Trivialis, where he\u2019s gained +0.31 Strokes putting per round over the last year. Smalley is wildly inconsistent but has been solid tee-to-green and has the ability to spike with two Top 5 finishes in his past four starts. Very sneakily 3rd in SG: TOTAL on Pete Dye courses over the past three years too.<\/p>\n
Johnny Keefer<\/a><\/span> & Matt McCarty<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\nTwo players who have seen their odds more than double from a week ago despite excellent ball-striking performances. McCarty gained over two strokes on approach despite hitting the most costly approach shot of the week (Round 2 approach on No. 9). The putter and chipping let him down, despite that being a part of his game where he\u2019s consistently proficient. While the sample is small on Keefer, his profile is: Great ball striker, poor around the greens, and inconsistent with the putter. The firmer greens may exclude any bad chipping performance from a victory this week, but Keefer will generate enough birdie chances to potentially rise with a hot putting performance. Plus, both have experience in these shootouts from excellent KFT careers.<\/p>\n
Chris Kirk<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\nStruggled out of the gate in Hawaii through no fault of his ball striking. When someone like Rico Hoey<\/a><\/span> loses two strokes a round on and around the greens, it\u2019s expected. When Kirk does it, you squint, chalk it up to a bad week, and assume he gets back to his normal self.<\/p>\nZach Bauchou<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\nSince I didn\u2019t play any first-round leaders, Bauchou becomes my weekly donation. He went on a birdie barrage to make the weekend at Sony, put together a decent Saturday, and gave it all back Sunday. He won late last year on KFT and showed me enough with birdie streaks to show how he can go low. Can he do it for four rounds? Oh God, no. But 2.5 and hold on to a Top 8 at 200\/1? Probably not, also.<\/p>\n
2026 American Express WEATHER<\/h2>\n
Stark difference from last week. Here\u2019s the worst stretch of weather the players will encounter this week<\/p>\n
Windtower: La Quinta<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!t0qQ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc47c4a5f-677b-4500-8e84-82235734d0d9_948x482.png\")
<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n2026 American Express DRAFTKINGS<\/h2>\n
This is a real “to Scottie or not” week since he\u2019s $14,200. I have decided not to Scottie, Cantlay, and Ludvig and made lineups that way. A reminder to everyone using Scheffler: as Alex Blickle pointed out on the DK Show, if you use Scottie, those 5%-15% low 7K\/mid 6K players will correlate more closely in all Scottie lineups, since you\u2019ll need to scatter-shot that area to make rosters work.<\/p>\n
For example, Mac Meissner<\/a><\/span> is projected to be around 11%-13% owned. That means he\u2019ll probably be in something like 25%-35% of lineups featuring Scheffler.<\/p>\nStats & Tools Provided by Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Khbx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff9cf895-79e3-4443-b857-e41c5f61cc69_1546x840.png\")
<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n2026 American Express UNDERDOG<\/h3>\n
Last week introduced the new full-tournament Underdog Drafts. This week introduces the NEW PME CLASSIC RAKE FREE Underdog drafts. $20 per draft, 5-Max, No Rake, Flat payouts. Since this is supposed to be a community-type contest, only 10% goes to the winner to<\/p>\n
- \n
- Henley +2500<\/li>\n
- Griffin +2700<\/li>\n
- Si WOOO +4000 (Number still at Coolbet<\/a>)<\/li>\n
- N. Taylor +8000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
BOMBS<\/h5>\n
- \n
- Smalley +10000 (With 8 Places)<\/li>\n
- M. McCarty +12500 (With 8 Places)<\/li>\n
- Keefer +12500 (With 8 Places)<\/li>\n
- Kirk +20000 (With 8 Places)<\/li>\n
- Bauchou +100000 (With 8 Places)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
FIRST ROUND LEADER<\/h5>\n
NONE THIS WEEK<\/p>\n
2026 American Express HOT LINKS<\/h4>\n
AMEX Bets, Weather & One-and-Done<\/a><\/h4>\n
AMEX Picks, Bets, Sony Recap<\/a><\/h4>\n
AMEX DraftKings Picks & Underdog Drafts<\/a><\/h4>\n
AMEX Research, Sleepers & Course Breakdown<\/a><\/h4>\n
NFL Champ Games Spread Picks, Cust Corner, Judge Cust<\/a><\/h4>\n
Tools Notes<\/h2>\n
If you\u2019ve logged on to Fantasy National, you\u2019ll notice the switch over, and the update has begun. Everyone has Rabbit Hole accounts with their FN subs now. But, as always, there\u2019s a hiccup for some people. If you can\u2019t log in to the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf, email support@fantasynational.com and they\u2019ll get you a login. Sorry about that. We\u2019re almost all the way there.<\/em><\/p>\n
2026 American Express PICKS<\/h2>\n
Russell Henley<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\n
He\u2019s never experienced the success you\u2019d expect from him at PGA West, but he hasn\u2019t played this event since 2022, and he did come in T14 that season.<\/span>\u00a0Now four years in the future, Henley\u2019s a top 10 player in the world and still possesses the accuracy, wedges, and putting that are over-indexed at this tournament. Originally, I was set to bet Ben Griffin<\/a><\/span>, since I had them rated about the same. Then, Henley opened with the bigger number, so I went there.<\/p>\n
Ben Griffin<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n
Then I woke up Wednesday morning, and Griffin had slid down the betting board, so it\u2019s both now! Obviously, Griffin has taken a leap over the past 12 months. He\u2019s now a three-time winner and returns to a site that was plenty comfortable for him before he was a Top 10-ranked player in the world. Griffin\u2019s gotten better in each of his three AMEX starts (T7\/T9\/T32), on the back of excellent putting performances on the greens at the stadium course. In six career rounds, he\u2019s gained a gaudy +2.37 SG: PUTT\/Round. Now, in 2026, Griffin has morphed into a top-tier T2G player as well, while excelling from 50-125 yards. A proximity range seen more at this event than any other on TOUR.<\/p>\n
Si WOO Kim<\/strong><\/h3>\n
A former champ, Si WOOOOOOO, was on fire ball-striking over the weekend at Sony and has a history of beating up on Pete Dye tracks. Now, his putter remained as bad as usual, but he does have a history of rolling it well at PGA West. He\u2019s gained on these greens four of his past five years, averaging +1.75 SG PUTT\/round in those years.<\/p>\n
Nick Taylor<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n
Fresh off a respectable title defense at Sony, Taylor too has tumbled down on the odds board. This is an irons and putting event, the two traits Taylor seems to spike in every half year or so.<\/p>\n
Alex Smalley<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n
Normally, I\u2019d hesitate to back Smalley at an event that requires so many putts to get into contention, yet, after digging into his putting splits, Smalley\u2019s best surface is actually Poa Trivialis, where he\u2019s gained +0.31 Strokes putting per round over the last year. Smalley is wildly inconsistent but has been solid tee-to-green and has the ability to spike with two Top 5 finishes in his past four starts. Very sneakily 3rd in SG: TOTAL on Pete Dye courses over the past three years too.<\/p>\n
Johnny Keefer<\/a><\/span> & Matt McCarty<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n
Two players who have seen their odds more than double from a week ago despite excellent ball-striking performances. McCarty gained over two strokes on approach despite hitting the most costly approach shot of the week (Round 2 approach on No. 9). The putter and chipping let him down, despite that being a part of his game where he\u2019s consistently proficient. While the sample is small on Keefer, his profile is: Great ball striker, poor around the greens, and inconsistent with the putter. The firmer greens may exclude any bad chipping performance from a victory this week, but Keefer will generate enough birdie chances to potentially rise with a hot putting performance. Plus, both have experience in these shootouts from excellent KFT careers.<\/p>\n
Chris Kirk<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n
Struggled out of the gate in Hawaii through no fault of his ball striking. When someone like Rico Hoey<\/a><\/span> loses two strokes a round on and around the greens, it\u2019s expected. When Kirk does it, you squint, chalk it up to a bad week, and assume he gets back to his normal self.<\/p>\n
Zach Bauchou<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n
Since I didn\u2019t play any first-round leaders, Bauchou becomes my weekly donation. He went on a birdie barrage to make the weekend at Sony, put together a decent Saturday, and gave it all back Sunday. He won late last year on KFT and showed me enough with birdie streaks to show how he can go low. Can he do it for four rounds? Oh God, no. But 2.5 and hold on to a Top 8 at 200\/1? Probably not, also.<\/p>\n
2026 American Express WEATHER<\/h2>\n
Stark difference from last week. Here\u2019s the worst stretch of weather the players will encounter this week<\/p>\n
Windtower: La Quinta<\/a><\/h4>\n
\n\n \n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n2026 American Express DRAFTKINGS<\/h2>\n
This is a real “to Scottie or not” week since he\u2019s $14,200. I have decided not to Scottie, Cantlay, and Ludvig and made lineups that way. A reminder to everyone using Scheffler: as Alex Blickle pointed out on the DK Show, if you use Scottie, those 5%-15% low 7K\/mid 6K players will correlate more closely in all Scottie lineups, since you\u2019ll need to scatter-shot that area to make rosters work.<\/p>\n
For example, Mac Meissner<\/a><\/span> is projected to be around 11%-13% owned. That means he\u2019ll probably be in something like 25%-35% of lineups featuring Scheffler.<\/p>\n
Stats & Tools Provided by Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole<\/a><\/h4>\n
\n\n \n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n2026 American Express UNDERDOG<\/h3>\n
Last week introduced the new full-tournament Underdog Drafts. This week introduces the NEW PME CLASSIC RAKE FREE Underdog drafts. $20 per draft, 5-Max, No Rake, Flat payouts. Since this is supposed to be a community-type contest, only 10% goes to the winner to<\/p>\n
- N. Taylor +8000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Crcu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2cffe17b-0688-46d6-be81-4f588e7019bf_2560x906.png\")
<\/p>\n