{"id":16329,"date":"2026-01-19T20:48:56","date_gmt":"2026-01-19T20:48:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&p=16329"},"modified":"2026-01-21T17:27:29","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T17:27:29","slug":"2026-american-express-noonans-outright-picks","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/2026-american-express-noonans-outright-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 American Express – Noonan’s Outright Picks"},"content":{"rendered":"

The PGA Tour heads east from Hawaii to the Coachella Valley desert in La Quinta, California, for The American Express at PGA West. This event changes its name like Collin Morikawa<\/a><\/a><\/span> changes caddies, so if you’re looking at past events, it could be anything from the Desert Classic to the CareerBuilder Challenge to the Bob Hope Classic.<\/p>\n

The American Express is a unique event to handicap. This three-course rotation includes a Pro-Am element, where each pro tees off with an amateur for the first three rounds of the tournament. It also features a 54-hole cut on Saturday night after each golfer has played a round on the event’s three courses. Once everyone’s made their way around the Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club, and The Stadium Course, the cut-makers will head back out to play The Stadium Course once again for the final round.<\/p>\n

Last season, I skipped the top of the odds board and trusted my model, leaning heavily on how the field has performed on short tracks with easy scoring conditions, which led me to eventual champ Sepp Straka<\/a><\/a><\/span> at 70\/1. I\u2019m running back the same model this week<\/a>, and only betting on golfers who rank highly in the final result.<\/p>\n

A Pete Dye design, The Stadium Course is the only place with Shotlink data for this event. That means we’re flying blind with strokes-gained data for all rounds at Nicklaus and La Quinta. All three of this week\u2019s courses share several common characteristics, though. Each features four scoreable par-5 holes and measures under 7,200 yards. They all have Poa trivialis greens and ryegrass fairways, which are bordered by non-penal dormant Bermuda rough. Furthermore, they are among the easiest annual courses in the PGA Tour rotation.<\/p>\n

The Stadium Course is the most challenging of the three courses and will host two of the four rounds, including the final round. It features smaller greens, numerous bunkers, and seven holes with water hazards. Most of the par-4 holes are designed to be “less-than-driver” due to their narrow fairways and strategically placed bunkers. Strong wedge play from 125 yards or closer is essential for players who adopt an aggressive approach off the tee, and overall, the average approach shot distance is roughly 6 yards shorter than the average PGA Tour event.<\/p>\n

An important detail about the grasses on all three courses is that the Bermuda grass is dormant during this time of year. The fairways and rough are overseeded with ryegrass, while the greens are overseeded with Poa trivialis. The new greens at the Stadium Course, which returned to their original size of an average of 7,000 square feet, up from 5,000 square feet, played much firmer last season and affected approach shots.<\/p>\n

A glance at past leaderboards makes it clear that the winner must go low. The Pro-Am format results in slower greens and amateur-friendly pin placements, so prior success in easy scoring conditions is advantageous. Charley Hoffman<\/a><\/a><\/span>‘s 2007 victory here was the only one in which the winner did not break 20 under par.<\/p>\n

For more course details, check out Ron’s<\/a> course preview<\/a>. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the Stadium Course stats page<\/a>, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.<\/a><\/p>\n

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YouTube: Betsperts Golf<\/a><\/h4>\n

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Key Rabbit Hole<\/a> Stats This Week:<\/h3>\n