After doing a bunch of Underdog\u2019s PGA Best Ball Scramble drafts, it\u2019s clear that rankings alone don\u2019t win contests\u2014team construction does. The challenge isn\u2019t identifying good golfers, but assembling rosters that can both survive the early rounds and win late in the season.<\/p>\n
Traditional rankings tend to over-optimize for early survival. My rankings, especially. Players who enter many events\u2014especially non-signature tournaments\u2014help teams advance out of Round 1. However, that same approach often collapses in later rounds when elite talent becomes essential.<\/p>\n
Uploading a straight rankings CSV and letting auto draft run exposes this flaw immediately. Teams end up overloaded with \u201cvolume guys\u201d and light on top-end firepower, leaving them competitive early but outmatched when it matters most. Or the inverse, and the team has no chance of escaping Round 1.<\/p>\n
The core issue: rankings don\u2019t understand average draft position (ADP) or context. A human drafter knows Chris Kirk<\/a> will be available later and Tommy Fleetwood<\/a> won\u2019t. An algorithm does not.<\/p>\n Winning the Scramble requires balancing two competing needs:<\/p>\n My rankings skew too heavily toward the first group, maximizing advancement odds but sacrificing championship upside.<\/p>\n Signature events shape the entire contest. Golfers automatically qualified \u2014 or those likely to play their way in\u2014carry immense value. Missing out on enough signature-event players often means getting crushed in Round 4.<\/p>\n This is why passing on players like Rory McIlroy<\/a> or Tommy Fleetwood<\/a> forces uncomfortable decisions. If you fade them early, you must compensate by aggressively targeting similar-tier players; Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a> is the best example of this type.<\/p>\n In my first run of drafts, I have 100% of Fitz, usually in round seven or eight. It\u2019s important to pay attention to what the other people in your draft room are doing. It\u2019s pretty clear after 15 or so picks which people in your draft have a clue and which don\u2019t. Rule of thumb: If you can\u2019t figure that out, you\u2019re the one without a clue.<\/p>\n One thing that has been overrated, however, is making sure you have enough players in signature events early. Ideally, you\u2019ll want to end up with seven or eight of these players on your roster, but players like Harris English<\/a>, Rickie Fowler<\/a>, Jhonattan Vegas<\/a>, Lucas Glover<\/a>, Daniel Berger<\/a>, Bud Cauley<\/a>, Shane Lowry<\/a>, and Keegan Bradley<\/a> are often available in the final three rounds.<\/p>\n Contest starts Jan 15. HOWEVER, if you send me a screen grab of your paid entry before January 1st, you\u2019ll get into a draw for a BONUS ENTRY FOR FREE!!! Send it to <\/em>X (Formally Known as Twitter<\/em><\/a>), <\/em>PME Instagram<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>email the show<\/em><\/a>! If you are going to play anyway, there\u2019s only upside in getting your entry now.<\/em><\/p>\n JOIN THE MAYO CUP ONE & DONE CONTEST (22% FULL)<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n Confirmation that Robert MacIntyre<\/a> will play the American Express dramatically boosts his profile. That commitment likely signals additional early starts, combined with strong late-season utility via Canada and Scotland.<\/p>\n With four Round 1 events and elite endgame value, MacIntyre now profiles as a Top 20 overall pick, maybe even a Top 10 pick rather than a fringe option.<\/p>\n Several ADP discrepancies stand out:<\/em><\/p>\n Rory remains one of the most polarizing picks. Early-season absences make advancing harder, but teams that survive with Rory are overwhelmingly strong late in the season. The data from last year confirms it: Rory teams that advance tend to be the ones still alive at the end.<\/p>\n Drafting Rory fundamentally changes your strategy\u2014you must prioritize early-round survival elsewhere to unlock his late-round dominance. This is where rankings vs ADP begin to come into play. I\u2019ve actually been taking Rory in round three in most drafts now, ahead of players I have ranked above him, because he’s a key cog in actually winning this contest, given his schedule. While likely only playing twice in seven events in Round 1 of the PGA Best Ball, Rory is one of a select few who may play in five of the six tournaments in the championship round.<\/p>\n He always plays in the Canadian Open and the Scottish Open, while showing up at the US and British Opens (obviously) and the Travelers, a signature event. This is what makes Sam Burns<\/a> the clear number two pick in drafts. Since he\u2019ll do the same as Rory but make more starts the rest of the year.<\/p>\n In fact, if Burns overachieves this season, because of his schedule, it may actually make him more valuable than Scottie Scheffler<\/a>. You should always take Scheffler with the first pick, though, even if you think Burns will outscore him, as the No. 1 pick is your only chance to build any Scottie teams. You can get lucky and grab Burns at picks 2\/3\/4\/5 in most drafts. I\u2019m quite confident Burns will play the Canadian Open, as he\u2019s one of three non-Canadians sponsored by RBC, the event’s title sponsor. Same reason you\u2019ll see Sahith Theegala<\/a> and Cam Young at TPC Toronto again. Historically, Burns has shown up in Scotland, where the other two skip it more often than not.<\/p>\n This also gives Canadian players extra priority. You know they\u2019re playing the Canadian Open. And most have shown up in Scotland as well.<\/p>\n These two events quietly shape the final rounds.<\/p>\n Players likely to appear in both:<\/strong><\/p>\n Maybe both: Tommy Fleetwood<\/a>, Matt Fitzpatrick<\/a>, Jake Knapp<\/a>, Byeong-Hun An, Aaron Rai<\/a>, Cameron Young<\/a>, Michael Kim<\/a>, Sahith Theegala<\/a>, Shane Lowry<\/a>, Wyndham Clark<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rankings alone don\u2019t win contests\u2014team construction does, and Pat Mayo is here to help. The challenge isn\u2019t identifying good golfers, but assembling rosters that can both survive the early rounds and win late in the season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":10169,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[15],"bs_tags":[73,157],"class_list":["post-16216","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-fantasy","bs_tag-golf-dfs","bs_tag-underdog"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/gettyimages-2105280798-612x612-1.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":73,"name":"Golf DFS","slug":"golf-dfs"},{"id":157,"name":"Underdog","slug":"underdog"}],"types_list":[{"id":15,"name":"Fantasy"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Pat Mayo","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-17-163255-150x150.png"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"false","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/16216","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/29"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10169"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=16216"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=16216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}PME 2026 PGA BEST BALL DRAFT CONTENT<\/h3>\n
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Early Rounds vs. Late Rounds: Two Different Games<\/h4>\n
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The Importance of \u201cSignature Event Access\u201d<\/h4>\n
2026 ONE AND DONE CONTEST FREE ENTRY<\/em><\/h4>\n
Robert MacIntyre<\/a>\u2019s Rising Value<\/h4>\n
Market Inefficiencies: Who\u2019s Over- and Undervalued?<\/h4>\n
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Rory McIlroy<\/a>: Building for Round 4<\/h4>\n
Canadian Open & Scottish Open: Hidden Round 4 Leverage<\/h4>\n
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