{"id":15874,"date":"2025-08-19T16:35:37","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T16:35:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&#038;p=15874"},"modified":"2025-08-19T16:35:37","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T16:35:37","slug":"2025-tour-championship-noonans-outright-picks-and-preview","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/2025-tour-championship-noonans-outright-picks-and-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 Tour Championship &#8211; Noonan\u2019s Outright Picks and Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The 2025 season and FedExCup Playoffs come to an end this week at East Lake Golf Club, the<\/span> <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">annual host of the Tour Championship. As you likely already know, we have a <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">big<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> change in the structure of the event, with the much-maligned starting strokes format eliminated this season. The 30 golfers in the field will start at even par, with the winner of this week&#8217;s event earning the title of FedExCup champion and the $10 million top prize that comes with it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">East Lake saw a significant renovation <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">prior to<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> last year&#8217;s event. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Hundreds of trees were removed<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> from the property, every inch of turf was removed and replanted, and all 18 greens <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">were fully redesigned<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. Players talked about how sight lines changed drastically from previous years, and Andrew Green, the architect who spearheaded the project, was correct when he said, &#8220;nothing is the same, not a single golf shot on the property.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The removal of trees and widening of fairways made the course play <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">a bit<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> easier off the tee, though there&#8217;s still a premium on finding the Zoysia grass fairways off the tee.<\/span> <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The Bermuda grass rough is long and penal due to <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">the<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> grabby nature <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">of it<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> and the unpredictable lies it creates for approach shots.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The green complexes are firm and fast, and the course has a lot more contouring and slope than it did before Green&#8217;s work, which impacts both putting and approach shots. They also increased the challenge around the green, with more shaved runoffs and collection areas around the green instead of thick Bermuda grass aprons that previously slowed down wayward approach shots.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Overall, East Lake is a long par-70 track, playing at 7,440 from the tips. Lake is in the name, so we have water hazards on eight holes. Handicapping this event is a bit tricky this year. First, we only have one year of data on the new layout, so I don&#8217;t want to make any sweeping assumptions based on just four rounds of play 12 months ago. Second, there has to be some effect on how the field approaches this week compared to past seasons <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">now<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> that the starting strokes <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">are removed<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. It&#8217;s a no-cut 30-man field with a <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">huge<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> prize regardless of where you finish, but the reward for winning is significant. That was never an option for most of the field here in years past, but now it is. Will we see a more aggressive approach for some?<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/golf-betting\/3-months-of-betsperts-golf-free-with-chalkboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">New Betsperts Golf Subscribers Can Get 3 Months for FREE!!!<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">For more course details, check out\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/PGASplits101\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Ron&#8217;s<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/golf-betting\/2025-tour-championship-at-east-lake-golf-club-preview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">course preview<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. It&#8217;s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don&#8217;t forget to check out our new research tools, the course <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/course-stats\/east-lake-gc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">stats page<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, along with the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/tournament-cheat-sheet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Tournament Cheat Sheet.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Podcast:\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/betsperts-golf-betting-and-dfs-preview\/id1613405978\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Apple<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> |\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/show\/2vCFcaoVvBFsGRs4lgiywh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Spotify<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">YouTube:\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCizPcPE4ktiGahWyzq9ycJA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Betsperts Golf<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<h2><\/h2>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Key\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/custom-report\/27070\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Rabbit Hole<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> Stats This Week:<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Driving Distance<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Par 4 Scoring Average (Long and Very Long Courses)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">SG: Ball-striking (Long and Very Long Courses, Driver heavy)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">SG: Total (Par 70, Long and Very Long Courses)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Scrambling Short Grass (Fast Bermuda greens)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">SG: P (Baseline putting and Bermuda grass putting)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I&#8217;m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/the-rabbit-hole\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Rabbit Hole<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Please take advantage of the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/discord.gg\/HujqSwCvwR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Discord<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> feature and community. It&#8217;s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That&#8217;s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Even though the season is winding down, we&#8217;re still adding new tools and data to the site every week. Check out our new <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/golf-betting\/new-rabbit-hole-feature-rolling-averages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Rolling Averages<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> view in the Rabbit Hole!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Noonan&#8217;s Tour Championship Outright Targets<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Ben Griffin (25\/1, Caesars)<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">(&#8220;Without Scottie Scheffler&#8221; market)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Ben Griffin went from a long-shot Ryder Cup contender to an absolute lock over the past few months. There was a hiccup for a minute there, with back-to-back missed cuts at the John Deere Classic and Open Championships, but in the other nine events surrounding those MCs, Griffin has finished no worse than T14. He&#8217;s consistently in contention, and his game is <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">perfectly<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> suited for East Lake.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Griffin ranks second in average strokes gained per round over the past 36 rounds, and he&#8217;s played well at longer Par-70 tracks this season. Over the past six months, Griffin has averaged 1.59 strokes per round on long golf courses, which ranks third among this week&#8217;s field. He also grades out <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">really<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> well in scrambling from the short grass (6th) and Bermuda putting (2nd), which is going to play a role in deciding who wins this week.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Maverick McNealy (28\/1, Caesars)<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">(&#8220;Without Scottie Scheffler&#8221; market)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Another player who ranks highly in the short game metrics I&#8217;m leaning on this week is Maverick McNealy. The data shows that McNealy is a significantly better scrambler from the short grass versus the rough, so he gets a bump there this week. We also know that his baseline putting is strong, especially on Bermuda.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">He carries plus distance off the tee, and his irons are streaky, so I&#8217;m looking for him to <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">carry<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> last week&#8217;s momentum at the BMW (solo third-place) into East Lake. We certainly know there&#8217;s a lot on the line for him, and he&#8217;ll have a valid case for Bethpage if he can post a solid four rounds this week. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2025 Tour Championship preview and Noonan\u2019s expert outright picks for the final leg of the PGA Tour playoffs, the Tour Championship. Discover top contenders and winning predictions for the Tour Championship at East Lake.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":14520,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14],"bs_tags":[29,129],"class_list":["post-15874","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-tour-championship"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/gettyimages-2185992573-612x612-1.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"},{"id":129,"name":"Tour Championship","slug":"tour-championship"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Ryan Noonan","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Ryan-Noonan-150x150.jpg"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"false","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/15874","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14520"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15874"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=15874"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=15874"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}