{"id":15823,"date":"2025-08-11T21:28:33","date_gmt":"2025-08-11T21:28:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&#038;p=15823"},"modified":"2025-08-11T21:35:17","modified_gmt":"2025-08-11T21:35:17","slug":"2025-bmw-championship-noonans-outright-picks-and-preview","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/2025-bmw-championship-noonans-outright-picks-and-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 BMW Championship &#8211; Noonan\u2019s Outright Picks and Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and the top 50 remaining players head to Caves Valley Golf Club for this year&#8217;s BMW Championship. Located just outside of Baltimore, Caves Valley hosted the 2021 BMW Championship, where <span class=\"unlink-player\">Patrick Cantlay<\/span> beat <span class=\"unlink-player\">Bryson DeChambeau<\/span> on the sixth hole of their sudden-death playoff.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The best players in the world picked Caves Valley apart, but since the 2021 edition, it&#8217;s undergone an extensive facelift <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">in order to<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> better test this week&#8217;s field. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">First, the course has been lengthened to 7,600 yards, and it&#8217;ll now play as a par 70. Also, the green complexes were redone, with a subair system installed to better control the speed and moisture after players complained in 2021 about the consistency of Caves Valley&#8217;s bent grass greens. The new greens will also bring more hazards into play and allow for more challenging pin locations. We&#8217;re also hearing that the rough should be grown out a bit higher after the field posted a GIR% that was nearly 12% higher than the tour average the last time they were here.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">I <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">still <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">think we&#8217;ll<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> see low scores and a driver-heavy approach from the field.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> Back in 2021, nearly 40% of the approach shots came from 200+ yards out, 42.9% more than an average tour event.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/golf-betting\/3-months-of-betsperts-golf-free-with-chalkboard\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">New Betsperts Golf Subscribers Can Get 3 Months for FREE!!!<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">For more course details, check out\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/PGASplits101\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Ron&#8217;s<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/golf-betting\/2025-bmw-championship-at-caves-valley-gc-preview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">course preview<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. It&#8217;s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don&#8217;t forget to check out our new research tools, the course <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/course-stats\/caves-valley-golf-club\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">stats page<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, along with the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/tournament-cheat-sheet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Tournament Cheat Sheet.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Podcast:\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/betsperts-golf-betting-and-dfs-preview\/id1613405978\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Apple<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> |\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/show\/2vCFcaoVvBFsGRs4lgiywh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Spotify<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">YouTube:\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCizPcPE4ktiGahWyzq9ycJA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Betsperts Golf<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<h2><\/h2>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Key\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/custom-report\/27070\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Rabbit Hole<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> Stats This Week:<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Driving Distance<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Par 4 Scoring Average (Long and Very Long Courses)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">SG: Ball-striking (Long and Very Long Courses)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">SG: Total (Par 70, Long and Very Long Courses)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">SG: P (Baseline putting and Bent grass putting)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I&#8217;m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/the-rabbit-hole\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Rabbit Hole<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Please take advantage of the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/discord.gg\/HujqSwCvwR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Discord<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> feature and community. It&#8217;s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That&#8217;s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Even though the season is winding down, we&#8217;re still adding new tools and data to the site every week. Check out our new <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/golf-betting\/new-rabbit-hole-feature-rolling-averages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Rolling Averages<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> view in the Rabbit Hole!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Noonan&#8217;s BMW Championship Outright Targets<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span class=\"unlink-player\">Ludvig Aberg<\/span> (16\/1, FanDuel)<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">(&#8220;Without <span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\">Rory McIlroy<\/span>&#8221; market)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span> was the runaway model darling of the week, ranking first in eight of the 15 metrics that I used, but I was intrigued by <span class=\"unlink-player\">Ludvig Aberg<\/span>, who ranked third overall for me. There was a bit of a post-Masters lull from Aberg, but he&#8217;s been much sharper of late, finishing inside the top 10 in two of his past three starts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Aberg has gained strokes on approach and off the tee in seven consecutive starts. Some of his struggles have come around the green, but with the elevated GIR% rates here, I&#8217;m not factoring in scrambling skills much at all this week. Aberg ranks sixth in this field in driving distance over the past 50 rounds, and he&#8217;s arguably been the best long iron player in the world this season, not named &#8220;Scheffler&#8221;. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Aberg has also been an elite putter on bent greens, gaining 2+ (23.08%) and 3+ (15.38%) strokes putting on bent at the highest rates in the field over the past two years.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span class=\"unlink-player\">Cameron Young<\/span> (20\/1, FanDuel)<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">(&#8220;Without <span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\">Rory McIlroy<\/span>&#8221; market)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Cam Young followed up his win at Sedgefield with a solo fifth-place finish at TPC Southwind, carrying the strong momentum forward at the most <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">important<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> time of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Young&#8217;s distance off the tee immediately puts him on the short list this week, and then you add in his recent ball-striking and putting numbers, and we have the recipe of a contender. Back when Young won the 2022 Rookie of the Year, he was getting it done with a distance advantage and elite putting. His putting was a mess for a bit, but he&#8217;s now gained strokes putting in nine straight starts stateside, and even through his struggles, he was always slightly above average on bent grass greens. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">I&#8217;m riding the wave of Young&#8217;s positive momentum, end-of-the-year motivation, and ideal course fit.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Matthew Fitzpatrick (25\/1, FanDuel)<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">(&#8220;Without <span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\">Rory McIlroy<\/span>&#8221; market)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span class=\"unlink-player\">Matt Fitzpatrick<\/span>&#8216;s run of four straight T8 or better finishes came to an end last week at TPC Southwind, but his game is a significantly better fit for what&#8217;s ahead this week at Caves Valley. Fitzpatrick carries plus distance off the tee and pairs it with one of the best long iron skill sets in the game. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Fitzpatrick seemed lost earlier in the season, but he&#8217;s put together a solid summer of exceptional tee-to-green play and has found his putter again at the same time. Over the past 24 rounds, Fitzy has averaged +1.39 strokes per round tee-to-green, up from the +0.15 he&#8217;s posted over the past 100 rounds. His putting numbers are trending as well, up +0.57 strokes per round over the past 24 versus 0.34 over his past 100. He&#8217;s also performed well on bent grass greens, gaining 1+ strokes in 40.91% of his rounds on bent over the past two years, the seventh-best rate in this week&#8217;s field.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span class=\"unlink-player\">Kurt Kitayama<\/span> (40\/1, Bet365)<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">(&#8220;Without <span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\">Rory McIlroy<\/span>&#8221; market)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Another recent winner on Tour who&#8217;s not cooling off is <span class=\"unlink-player\">Kurt Kitayama<\/span>. I thought he might profile well, especially given his recent putting performance, but I was surprised to see him coming out as the No. 2 golfer in my model this week. This is a driver-heavy setup, which is good news for Kitayama. Over the past 36 rounds, Kitayama ranks second in this week&#8217;s field in SG: Ball-striking. When you back it out over the past 12 months and look at ball-striking on driver-heavy courses, Kitayama remains in second, once again, trailing only <span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Kitayama has also feasted on long and very long par-70 tracks, leading this field in birdie or better rate and finishing third in overall par-4 scoring. That matters a lot this week, given the length of the course and the importance of par-4 scoring with just two par 5s on the scorecard. His best finishes this season, including his win in Minnesota, have come at driver-heavy courses with easier scoring conditions (T5 John Deere, T5 <span class=\"unlink-player\">Byron Nelson<\/span>).<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2025 BMW Championship preview and Noonan\u2019s expert outright picks for the second leg of the PGA Tour playoffs, the BMW Championship. Discover top contenders and winning predictions for the BMW at Caves Valley Golf Club.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":15824,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14],"bs_tags":[128,29],"class_list":["post-15823","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_tag-bmw-championship","bs_tag-golf-betting"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/USATSI_23058754_168403787_lowres-scaled.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":128,"name":"BMW Championship","slug":"bmw-championship"},{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Ryan Noonan","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Ryan-Noonan-150x150.jpg"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"false","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/15823","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15824"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15823"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=15823"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=15823"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}