{"id":15124,"date":"2025-06-17T17:25:02","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T17:25:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&#038;p=15124"},"modified":"2025-06-17T17:29:12","modified_gmt":"2025-06-17T17:29:12","slug":"2025-travelers-championship-noonans-outright-picks-and-preview","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/2025-travelers-championship-noonans-outright-picks-and-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 Travelers Championship- Noonan\u2019s Outright Picks and Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Much was made about the unique test that Oakmont Country Club would present the world&#8217;s best golfers at last week&#8217;s 125th playing of the U.S. Open, and <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">I think<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> it lived up to its hype.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> Others may disagree, but I wanted the event to look and feel different from a standard PGA Tour setup, and it delivered.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">While this week&#8217;s track, TPC River Highlands, isn&#8217;t nearly as demanding, it requires a strategic game plan and precision from the 72 golfers in the field.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The 2025 Travelers Championship brings us to the last Pete Dye course and the last no-cut Signature Event of the season. The par-70 layout stretches out to 6,841 yards from the tips, the third-shortest course on Tour this season. In past years, we&#8217;ve seen a wide array of skill sets show up to Cromwell, Connecticut, and win, which is what Pete Dye sets out to do in all of his designs. Play the best for four days, and you win. What a concept. Success at TPC River Highlands has come in many different shapes and sizes, so handicapping this week can be a bit challenging because the <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> With fairways being the 10th narrowest and many holes being tree-lined doglegs, many players opt to club down and play &#8220;less than a driver&#8221; off the tee. Last year&#8217;s driver usage was down below 60%, which is notably lower than the 68.9% average across all PGA Tour stops. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Perhaps the<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> bigger reason players club down is some of the most penal rough that has been grown to 4+ inches long for this week.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">To prevent a complete birdie-fest, the pin positions on the greens are typically in tougher locations. A Pete Dye course is not just going to give away birdies. Many of the green complexes, which are a combination of &#8220;northeastern&#8221; Poa annua and bentgrass, are also angled away from the directional path of the hole. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The &#8220;competitive enhancements&#8221; made to the course <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">prior to<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> last year&#8217;s event <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">didn&#8217;t have<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> a <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">significant<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> impact on the overall scoring.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">For more course details, check out\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/PGASplits101\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Ron&#8217;s<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/golf-betting\/2025-travelers-championship-at-tpc-highlands-preview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">course preview<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. It&#8217;s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don&#8217;t forget to check out our new research tools, the course <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/course-stats\/tpc-river-highlands\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">stats page<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, along with the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/tournament-cheat-sheet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Tournament Cheat Sheet.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Podcast:\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/betsperts-golf-betting-and-dfs-preview\/id1613405978\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Apple<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> |\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/show\/2vCFcaoVvBFsGRs4lgiywh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Spotify<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">YouTube:\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCizPcPE4ktiGahWyzq9ycJA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Betsperts Golf<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<h2><\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Key\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/the-rabbit-hole\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Rabbit Hole<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> Stats This Week:<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">SG: Total (Scoring Conditions: Very Easy, Easy, and Average + Course Length: Short and Very Short)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">SG: OTT (Club: Less than Driver and Mixed + Missed Fairway Penalty: Average and High)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">SG: Total (Pete Dye Courses)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Par 4 Efficiency (Course Length: Very Short and Short)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I&#8217;m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/the-rabbit-hole\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Rabbit Hole<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Please take advantage of the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/discord.gg\/HujqSwCvwR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Discord<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> feature and community. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">It&#8217;s the best way to <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">get<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> up-to-the-minute lines and advice<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, and if<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> you need help getting started, please reach out.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> That&#8217;s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Noonan&#8217;s Travelers Championship Outright Targets<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span class=\"unlink-player\">Russell Henley<\/span> (35\/1, &#8220;Without <span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span>&#8221; Market)<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span class=\"unlink-player\">Russell Henley<\/span> has a solid but unspectacular history at this venue, <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">making the cut in<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> six of his seven starts, with four of those resulting in T19 or better finishes, highlighted by his T6 finish back in 2018. Still, this is a prototypical <span class=\"unlink-player\">Russell Henley<\/span> course.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15126\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15126\" style=\"width: 649px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-15126 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Henley-Travelers.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"649\" height=\"235\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Henley-Travelers.jpg 649w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Henley-Travelers-300x109.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 649px) 100vw, 649px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15126\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>SG: Total on short courses with easy scoring conditions + Good Drive% on &#8220;Less than Driver&#8221; courses with a high missed fairway penalty<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Henley comes to Connecticut on the back of a T5 at the Memorial, which he followed up with a T10 last week at Oakmont, so he checks the recent form box for me. Henley ranks third over the past two years, behind <span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span> and <span class=\"unlink-player\">Justin Thomas<\/span>, in SG: Total on short\/very short courses with easy\/<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">very easy<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> scoring conditions. He also ranked third in Good Drive% when there&#8217;s a high missed fairway penalty and the field is using &#8220;less than driver&#8221; at an above-average rate. These are two of the most <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">important<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> metrics in <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/custom-report\/24436\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">my model this week<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, which is why Henley finished among the top five golfers for me.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Henley opened in the 50\/1 range on Monday morning, but admittedly, I&#8217;m terrified of betting on outrights with <span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span> in the field right now. I&#8217;m swimming exclusively in the &#8220;Without Scheffler&#8221; pool this week. Henley is now down to 40\/1 or shorter at most books, so I feel good about the value we got here.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span class=\"unlink-player\">Cameron Young<\/span> (40\/1, &#8220;Without <span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span>&#8221; Market)<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">I backed Cam Young in Canada a few weeks ago, my first time doing so in almost three years, and he nearly got it done, finishing T4. He followed that up with another T4 finish at last week&#8217;s U.S. Open, so he has my attention, and I&#8217;m not alone. Based on early line movement, Young has been a popular selection once again this week.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The putter has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting as of late, but that&#8217;s not the only part of his game that&#8217;s trending well.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15127\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15127\" style=\"width: 1024px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-15127 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Cam-Young-Travelers-1024x204.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"204\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Cam-Young-Travelers-1024x204.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Cam-Young-Travelers-300x60.jpg 300w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Cam-Young-Travelers-768x153.jpg 768w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Cam-Young-Travelers.jpg 1296w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15127\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>We&#8217;re trending&#8230;<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Young finished T9 at this event last season, firing a 59 on Saturday to put himself squarely in contention. If he can continue to gain strokes on approach, his putter might be hot enough to contend for the third consecutive week.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span class=\"unlink-player\">Maverick McNealy<\/span> (45\/1, &#8220;Without <span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span>&#8221; Market)<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">We&#8217;ve seen a lot of good golf from <span class=\"unlink-player\">Maverick McNealy<\/span> over the past two seasons<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, and although<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> he only has a swing-season win at the RSM Classic to show for it, he&#8217;s been competitive at numerous courses with setups similar to what we&#8217;ll see this week in Connecticut.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">McNealy has top-five finishes at The Genesis, Valero, RBC Heritage, and Memorial this season. Three of those four starts were &#8220;Signature Events,&#8221; and all relied on setting yourself up well off the tee due to the penal nature of the rough. Out of all the cut-makers at Oakmont, McNealy ranked third in SG: OTT for the week, gaining through both distance and accuracy. If that continues this week, he should be in contention.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span class=\"unlink-player\">Denny McCarthy<\/span> (70\/1, &#8220;Without <span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span>&#8221; Market)<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span class=\"unlink-player\">Denny McCarthy<\/span> isn&#8217;t striking his irons quite as well as he was back in the spring, but he&#8217;s still gained strokes on approach in five of his past six starts. He&#8217;s also added ball speed this season, which is likely a big piece of his improved approach numbers since he&#8217;s <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">likely<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> hitting a lot fewer long irons compared to seasons past.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">He&#8217;s also had a few strong showings against tougher fields, including a T8 at last month&#8217;s PGA Championship. He&#8217;s also played well at other Pete Dye setups over the years, but we all know why Denny is on the outright card<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. The<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> putter.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15128\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15128\" style=\"width: 436px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15128\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Denny-Travelers.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"436\" height=\"256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Denny-Travelers.jpg 436w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Denny-Travelers-300x176.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 436px) 100vw, 436px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15128\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>We&#8217;re looking at a bent\/poa mix this week<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Over the past two years, McCarthy has gained two or more strokes <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">putting<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> in 21.5% of his rounds, trailing only <span class=\"unlink-player\">Sam Burns<\/span> (23.75%) over that same time frame. He&#8217;s gained 3+, 4+, and 5+ at a significantly higher rate than Burns has, and it gives him a strong floor nearly every time he tees it up. As you can see, he especially loves these TPC River Highlands greens, which are a blend of bentgrass and poa.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span class=\"unlink-player\">Tom Hoge<\/span> (90\/1, &#8220;Without <span class=\"unlink-player\">Scottie Scheffler<\/span>&#8221; Market)<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">A cold putter sent <span class=\"unlink-player\">Tom Hoge<\/span> home early from Oakmont after he missed the cut on the number. Through two rounds, Hoge ranked fifth in the U.S. Open field in SG: BS and that&#8217;s encouraging as we move to this Pete Dye design. Hoge has thrived on Dye layouts in his career, including a T3 here last season and again at this year&#8217;s PLAYERS Championship. Even on other short, non-Dye tracks, Hoge&#8217;s ball-striking numbers have historically been excellent.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15129\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15129\" style=\"width: 430px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-15129 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Hoge-Travelers.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"430\" height=\"250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Hoge-Travelers.jpg 430w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Hoge-Travelers-300x174.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 430px) 100vw, 430px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15129\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Last 18 months<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">While he&#8217;ll occasionally pop up and play well at a longer venue, like his T7 at Muirfield Village last month, his game is better suited for these shorter, positional tracks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15130 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/downloaded-image-22.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1080\" height=\"1080\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/downloaded-image-22.jpg 1080w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/downloaded-image-22-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/downloaded-image-22-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/downloaded-image-22-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/downloaded-image-22-768x768.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1080px) 100vw, 1080px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":15125,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14],"bs_tags":[29,119],"class_list":["post-15124","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_tag-golf-betting","bs_tag-travelers-championship"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USATSI_23603738_168403787_lowres.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"},{"id":119,"name":"Travelers Championship","slug":"travelers-championship"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Ryan Noonan","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Ryan-Noonan-150x150.jpg"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"false","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/15124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15125"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=15124"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=15124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}