{"id":15041,"date":"2025-06-10T22:02:19","date_gmt":"2025-06-10T22:02:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&#038;p=15041"},"modified":"2025-06-10T22:05:43","modified_gmt":"2025-06-10T22:05:43","slug":"2025-u-s-open-noonans-outright-picks-and-preview","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/2025-u-s-open-noonans-outright-picks-and-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 U.S. Open- Noonan\u2019s Outright Picks and Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The season&#8217;s third major and the 125th edition of our national championship, the U.S. Open, returns to Oakmont Country Club for the tenth time in the club&#8217;s history.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">There&#8217;s no course in the U.S. Open rotation that better exemplifies what the USGA set out to do annually at our national open than Oakmont. The course architect, Henry Fownes, once famously said, &#8220;A shot poorly played should be a shot irrevocably lost.&#8221; <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">This mantra is <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">branded<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> on every square inch of the 7,372-yard Par-70 layout in western Pennsylvania, which is hosting its record tenth U.S. Open <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">championship<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The answer to this week&#8217;s &#8220;Distance or Accuracy?&#8221; debate is both. The rough is gnarly and will only get worse as the weekend approaches. The wet conditions over the past few days, and possibly over the weekend, will magnify the need for length <\/span><em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">and<\/span><\/em><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> accuracy. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The undulation on the fairways and greens is as extreme as you&#8217;ll find anywhere in professional golf. And they&#8217;ll have the greens running as fast as possible, especially to offset any advantage the field may experience from the course playing softer due to the rain.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">One of the most telling indicators of the quality that Oakmont demands is that eight of its nine U.S. Open champions have won multiple majors. This isn&#8217;t a venue for a one-off major championship story like LACC or Royal Liverpool. The mental and physical demands of four days and 72 holes should leave us with a worthwhile champion, likely one of this era&#8217;s greats. Par is a great outcome, and that goes for every hole and every round.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">For more course details, check out\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/PGASplits101\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Ron&#8217;s<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/golf-betting\/2025-u-s-open-at-oakmont-country-club-preview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">course preview<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">. It&#8217;s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don&#8217;t forget to check out our new research tools, the Oakmont <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/course-stats\/oakmont-cc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">stats page<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, along with the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/tournament-cheat-sheet\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Tournament Cheat Sheet.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Podcast:\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/betsperts-golf-betting-and-dfs-preview\/id1613405978\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Apple<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> |\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/show\/2vCFcaoVvBFsGRs4lgiywh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Spotify<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">YouTube:\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCizPcPE4ktiGahWyzq9ycJA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Betsperts Golf<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Key\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/the-rabbit-hole\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Rabbit Hole<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> Stats This Week:<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">SG: Total (Scoring Conditions &#8211; Very Difficult)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Hybrid Total Driving (Driving Distance + Accuracy + DFEF)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">SG: Ball-striking (Gain OTT\/APP &#8211; Very Difficult)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Scrambling Rough% (Thick rough, Fast Greens)<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BetspertsGolf\/status\/1932205943107752247\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Putting Model<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> (Fast Greens)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15044\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15044\" style=\"width: 1024px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-15044\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USATSI_26348296_168403787_lowres-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USATSI_26348296_168403787_lowres-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USATSI_26348296_168403787_lowres-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USATSI_26348296_168403787_lowres-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USATSI_26348296_168403787_lowres-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USATSI_26348296_168403787_lowres-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15044\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Jun 1, 2025; Dublin, Ohio, USA; A volunteer changes the name card for <a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scottie Scheffler<\/a> at the first tee during the final round of the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Noonan&#8217;s U.S. Open Outright Targets<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><a href=\"\/golfer\/scottie-scheffler\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Scottie Scheffler<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The part that you don&#8217;t care about: I bet Scheffler to win this event in the middle of the PGA Championship and then doubled down with a Memorial\/U.S. Open parlay to increase my position at a more palatable cost. <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">As <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">it pertains to<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> you <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">now as<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> the reader, <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">I <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">think<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> there are <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">a few<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> ways for you to join the party.<\/span> <span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">I&#8217;ll list a few different options <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">that are<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> available outside of the standard +280 <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">that&#8217;s<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> currently <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">available<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> on FanDuel, but <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">before that<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, some handicapping notes on Scheffler.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The world No. 1 is in his own tier, and that&#8217;s <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">properly reflected<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> in the betting market right now.\u00a0<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"><span style=\"box-sizing: border-box;\">Over the last three years, when facing very strong fields and in very difficult scoring conditions, Scheffler has gained\u00a0<em><strong>1.18 more<\/strong><\/em> strokes per round tee-to-green (T2G) on average than anyone else (46 rounds).<\/span>\u00a0That gap from Scottie to Xander\/Rory at #2 is the same as the gap from #2 down to #35, <a href=\"\/golfer\/tom-kim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tom Kim<\/a>. In a week where comp courses are hard to find, this is the best way to parse through the test that lies ahead for this week&#8217;s field.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-15045 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont-1024x692.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"692\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont-1024x692.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont-300x203.jpg 300w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont-768x519.jpg 768w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont.jpg 1306w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">He also leads the field in total strokes gained on long courses, in <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">tough<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> scoring conditions<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">, <\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">with<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> strong fields.<\/span><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> And again, it&#8217;s not very close. At 2.78 strokes per round, he&#8217;s 0.78 strokes clear of <a href=\"\/golfer\/xander-schauffele\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Xander Schauffele<\/a>, and the delta only grows larger if you look at T2G or ball striking (BS).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-15046 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont2-1024x369.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"369\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont2-1024x369.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont2-300x108.jpg 300w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont2-768x277.jpg 768w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont2.jpg 1317w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">What&#8217;s terrifying for Scottie faders is how he&#8217;s putting. On the season, he&#8217;s ninth in this week&#8217;s field in SG: Putting, where he&#8217;s gaining 0.42 strokes per round on average. I <\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/betspertsgolf.com\/custom-report\/23954\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">modeled<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> out the best putters in this week&#8217;s field, focusing on performance on fast surfaces and overall lag putting, and Scheffler ranks eighth in this week&#8217;s field.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-15048 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont3-1024x545.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"545\" srcset=\"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont3-1024x545.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont3-300x160.jpg 300w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont3-768x409.jpg 768w, https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/Scottie-Oakmont3.jpg 1309w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Here are some ways to join me, with most a bit riskier than the +280 outright, but that risk comes with a sweeter pot. I&#8217;m not betting on all of these because of my position, but I&#8217;m still considering some rather than weakening my position and backing the field.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Scheffler to win by margin (available on MGM or 365):<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">2+ strokes (+350)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">3+ strokes (+500)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">4+ strokes (+700)<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Scheffler wire-to-wire winner:<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">18\/1 (DraftKings)<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Scheffler to play in Final Pairing on Sunday:<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">+200 (365)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">The other two elite golfers that appeal to me the most this week are <a href=\"\/golfer\/bryson-dechambeau\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bryson DeChambeau<\/a> and <a href=\"\/golfer\/jon-rahm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jon Rahm<\/a>. There are a few ways to leverage this, again, without weakening my position on Scottie as the winner.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Without Scheffler Market:<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">DeChambeau +650 (DraftKings)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Rahm +900 (FanDuel)<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Straight Forecast (Players to finish 1st\/2nd in named order, BetRivers)<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Scheffler\/DeChambeau (30\/1)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Scheffler\/Rahm (45\/1)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Please take advantage of the\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"editor-rtfLink\" href=\"https:\/\/discord.gg\/HujqSwCvwR\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Discord<\/span><\/a><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\"> feature and community. It&#8217;s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That&#8217;s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>I&#8217;ll have more thoughts for our subscribers in the Discord this week.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":15043,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":""},"bs_types":[14],"bs_tags":[29],"class_list":["post-15041","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","bs_type-betting","bs_tag-golf-betting"],"acf":false,"featured_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/USATSI_26414329_168403787_lowres.jpg","tags_list":[{"id":29,"name":"Golf Betting","slug":"golf-betting"}],"types_list":[{"id":14,"name":"Betting"}],"bs_author":{"name":"Ryan Noonan","profile_image":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Ryan-Noonan-150x150.jpg"},"bs_term_name":null,"is_paid":"false","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/15041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15043"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"bs_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_types?post=15041"},{"taxonomy":"bs_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/bs_tags?post=15041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}