{"id":14017,"date":"2025-03-18T21:34:22","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T21:34:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/?post_type=article&p=14017"},"modified":"2025-03-18T21:42:09","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T21:42:09","slug":"2025-valspar-championship-noonans-outright-picks-and-preview","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/api.betspertsgolf.com\/raw-forum\/article\/2025-valspar-championship-noonans-outright-picks-and-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 Valspar Championship- Noonan\u2019s Outright Picks and Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"

The PGA Tour puts a bow on the Florida swing this week with the Valspar Championship. Located in Palm Harbor, Florida, and played on the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort, Copperhead is often described as one of the Tour’s most trying tracks. Best known for the “Snake Pit,” the three-hole finishing stretch that can alter the scoreboard quickly, Copperhead plays fast and narrow. The elevation changes and tree-lined fairways make it play more like a Carolina course than your prototypical Florida course. <\/span><\/p>\n

Scoring opportunities are few and far between here, and each hole can be won or lost from the tee. Finding the small poa trivialis greens in regulation is a difficult task here and nearly impossible if you’re not in the fairway, so I’m putting a premium on ball striking this week. The unique dispersion of holes on this 7,340-yard Par 71 track is something to factor in <\/span>as well<\/span>, with five long Par-3s on tap each round, along with a shorter group of Par 4s, mainly in the 400-450 yardage range. I’m putting a premium on <\/span>long<\/span> iron play, focusing on golfers who thrive in the 200+ yard approach range. <\/span>They’ve grown the rough out again this year <\/span>as well<\/span>, so the winning score will remain closer to -10 than what we’ve seen in the years <\/span>prior to<\/span> last year’s change.<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2023, two significant agronomic changes were made in response to the 2022 tournament, which recorded the lowest score in its history. First, the PGA increased the height of the rough from 3 inches to 3.75 inches. Second, the intermediate <\/span>cut of rough<\/span> around the greens was reduced from 72 inches to 21 inches, bringing the rough closer to the greens.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Off the tee, players are hitting fairways at a rate of only 55.9%. With fairways averaging just 28 yards in width, they rank <\/span>as the<\/span> fifth-narrowest on the Tour. As a result, along with the numerous doglegs and forced layups that require positional play, players often opt for less than a driver about 12-15% more frequently than during an average PGA Tour event. This leads to a 34% relative decrease in average driving distance, which has dropped to 278.3 yards over the past five years. Only Pebble Beach and Harbour Town have lower driving distances off the tee.<\/span><\/p>\n

By prioritizing accuracy over distance, players will face approach shots of greater than 175 yards more than 53% of the time. Additionally, this unique layout features five par 3s, with none measuring shorter than 190 yards. Players must excel with their mid- to long-irons to find success this week. Approach play is significantly more important than any other area this week, as the last five winners averaged sixth overall in this category. Innisbrook is undoubtedly a proper second-shot course.<\/span><\/p>\n

For more course details, check out\u00a0<\/span>Ron’s<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>course preview<\/span><\/a>. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the Copperhead\u00a0Course <\/span>stats page<\/span><\/a>, along with the\u00a0<\/span>Tournament Cheat Sheet.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Podcast:\u00a0<\/span>Apple<\/span><\/a> |\u00a0<\/span>Spotify<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n

YouTube:\u00a0<\/span>Betsperts Golf<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n

Key\u00a0<\/span>Rabbit Hole<\/span><\/a> Stats This Week:<\/span><\/h2>\n