Noonan’s WM Phoenix Open Outright Targets<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\nWithout Scottie Scheffler Market<\/h3>\n\n\n\nRasmus Hojgaard (40\/1)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
While we are more used to seeing Rasmus’s twin brother Nicolai, who earned his PGA Tour card a year earlier and has participated in more PGA Tour events, Rasmus is just as talented and arguably better. What you can’t argue is which of the two are in better form at the moment. Rasmus is an elite ball-striker with exceptional distance off the tee. He’s gained strokes on approach in 17 of his past 18 starts worldwide, with five T5 or better finishes over the same time frame, including a win at the Irish Open in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We don’t have a lot of Rabbit Hole data on Rasmus because he’s primarily played in Europe until this season, but he’s coming off of an impressive T22 finish at last week’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He shot an opening round 65 at Spyglass Hill, a place far better suited for his game. I think that translates to what we’re looking at this week, and I expect to see Rasmus in contention this weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nKurt Kitayama (45\/1)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Kurt Kitayama finished second in my model this week behind You Know Who. Kitayama’s recent ball-striking form is elite, and his plus distance off the tee is a prerequisite for me this week. His recent ball-striking numbers trail only Scheffler, and he’s still among the top three in the field when backing out to the past 50 measured rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kitayama’s distance also allows him to be more aggressive, which shows up in his Going For the Green%, which is among the best in the field. He’s played well in the past two seasons, with a T8 finish in 2024. What’s fascinating to me is that Kitayama is an abysmal putter, but he likes Scottsdale’s Poa Trivialis greens. He’s gained, on average, over a stroke per round in his eight career rounds at the Stadium Course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nLuke Clanton (50\/1)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Russell Henley and Keegan Bradley aren’t in the field this week, so I had to find another one of my favorite players to back, and Luke Clanton is undoubtedly a new addition to Team Noonan. I’m a sucker for elite ball strikers, and that’s the case to make for Clanton every time he tees it up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
His amateur status is on life support, and a strong finish this week will push him over the line and earn him his Tour card for the rest of the season. I backed him last time out, a T15 finish at Torrey Pines, and this is another exceptional spot to showcase his upper-echelon driving and approach game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nSam Stevens (60\/1)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Sam Stevens enters play this week in excellent form, and while his solo second-place finish at Torrey Pines two weeks ago was impressive, you could argue that his T17 this past week at Pebble Beach was just as good. Stevens hits the ball high and far, and that plays well at Torrey Pines, but to show up to Pebble Beach and compete against that field when blindly bombing driver off the tee is not an option; Stevens showed me something different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We’re back at a spot where high driver usage and distance are rewarded, and Stevens is also bringing confidence and form to Scottsdale. His recent approach numbers are excellent, and his scoring splits, with a high birdie or better rate (14th) and low bogey rate( 5th), are among the best combinations in the field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nBilly Horschel (65\/1)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Course history really matters for some golfers. For others, the course fit matters most. Some, like Billy Horschel, can show up anywhere and play well when they’re in good form. Ideally, these things all intersect at some point, and that’s why Horschel is on my card this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Horschel has a history of stringing together strong finishes. Now, form is fickle, and we never really know when it’s going to end, but I think it rolls on for at least one more week for Billy Ho. Horschel has played well here in the past, including a T6 finish back in 2022, and he’s finished T9 (Pebble) and T21 (AmEx) in his past two starts. When you look back at Horschel’s history, these patches of strong finishes jump out. He followed up his T2 at The Open with a T7 at Wyndham and a T10 at the FedEx St. Jude. Leading up to his win at Corales last season, he had three T12 or better finishes leading into it and kept it rolling with strong showings at the PGA Championship (T8), Schwab (T24), and the Memorial (T15).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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