We are headed around the world this week for the ZOZO Championship! As most weeks on the PGA Tour, we find ourselves somewhere in the states; the ZOZO Championship takes place at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Japan.
We have seen the ZOZO Championship take place at this course twice before, once in 2019 when Tiger Woods won. Last year, hometown hero Hideki Matsuyama won by five strokes. We have a pretty good field for a swing season event halfway across the world.
Xander Schaffulele, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, and Cameron Young all headline this field. We have so many inform golfers at the top of the board that it opens up some good betting opportunities down the board.
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a short par 70 that features five Par 3’s and three Par 5’s. Even though this course is short, it creates a lot of problems for golfers. This is not your typical bridie fest of the tour, and I expect a winning score around -16.
Let’s get into my favorite bets for the week.
Outright: Mito Pereira +3500 (DraftKings)
Now I have come on here and picked two outrights in this column. In both instances, I was extremely confident in my selection. I have a feeling that I am going to make it three winners this time. Mito Pereira is going to win the 2022 ZOZO Championship.
Mito was a very popular play at the Shriners Open. Even though he paid off his price, it’s a tall order to ask him to get to a -24 winning score. This week is a very different story. This event is not a “birdie fest”. The winning score could be in the -13 to -15 range. This plays right into Mito’s hand. He is an amazing ball striker that struggles putting. That’s a recipe that has worked at Narashino Country Club.
En route to a 4th place finish, Mito gained an insanely good 9.1 strokes on approach. That was the highest total of his career. This elite ball-striking will give him more birdie looks than most of the field. And he has more margin for error than last week in that he doesn’t have to make all of them
Mito also finished top 5 on his only trip to Japan for golf at the 2021 Olympics. I think that shows he is comfortable on these types of golf courses, and can only help him.
Top 10: Keegan Bradley +300 (FanDuel)
Two weeks ago at the Shriners, I wrote up Keegan as my favorite top 10 play, and it cashed easily. This week, although I think he has a much better chance to win, I still think he will find himself in the top 10 this week.
As I have alluded to before, Keegan is an elite ball striker that like Mito will give himself more birdie looks than his counterparts. This is going to be so important on a golf course like this. He will not need to get to -25 to win and make a million putts even though putting isn’t the best part of his game. It has really improved. Keegan gained 6.1 strokes on the greens last week and ranks 9th in this field in SG: P.
Mix in two 15 finishes at this event in Japan, and I think a top 10 play at +300 is excellent value.
Top 20: Sepp Straka +175 (DraftKings)
I am also not sure what else Sepp has to do to be priced correctly. This Austrian has lost twice in a playoff in his last four starts. Mix in a top-10 finish a the Tour Championship, and I just do not understand his price across the betting board this week.
After a great start to his 2022 year, he went through a dry spell. But he is a player that gets hot for an elongated period of time. He also was the first-round leader at the 2021 Summer Olympics in Japan. It’s a different course but similar agronomy and course fit.
This is a play purely based on a misprice on a golfer I think has another win in him soon. Bet Sepp top 20 this week.
Top 40: Lee Hodges +115 (FanDuel)
It is really hard to find a plus money top 40 this week as it is a reduced field event, no cut event. However, Lee Hodges at plus money is an excellent bet this week. Lee is an excellent ball striker that has been pretty consistent on tour over the past two months.
Over the past 24 rounds, Lee ranks 13th in Strokes Gained – Approach and 12th in Strokes Gained – Short Game. But he is near the bottom of the field in Strokes Gained – Putting.
And that is why I love him this week. He will be able to hit more greens in regulation than his counterparts in this range and get away with a par. And prior to his missed cut at the Shriners, he was on a run of pretty good golf recently. Before that, he had made 5 of his last seven cuts on the PGA Tour with two Top 20 finishes. With a no-cut format, he’s guaranteed for four rounds.
Matchup: Collin Morikawa Over Viktor Hovland -120 (DraftKings)
I think there is a larger discrepancy between talent here than the odds would let on. Collin is a two-time major winner and one of the best iron players in this field. Although neither has had a stellar season, I trust Morikawa in the long term much more.
Collin is coming off a stellar President’s Cup and the Tour Championship where gained 5.2 strokes on approach. I think it’s time for some positive regression and I can see him being in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
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