Set in the Sonoran Desert and surrounded by the majestic McDowell Mountains, the PGA Tour heads to TPC Scottsdale for this week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open. Completed in 1986 and designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, TPC Scottsdale has been the host of this event for the last 36 years.
The “People’s Open” is one of the most popular sporting events in the world, hosting around 750,000 spectators annually. Known for its raucous crowds, especially at the par-3 16th hole, this event has a unique atmosphere and is a tournament that often produces a dramatic finale. 14 of the past 17 years had a scoring margin of one stroke, including seven playoffs.
While there are plenty of scoring chances at TPC Scottsdale, the winning score has only reached 20-under par once in the last 16 years. Over the past five years, scoring has averaged 0.69 strokes under par. Strong drivers of the ball have had great success here, including back-to-back winner, Scottie Scheffler, and others such as Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, and Justin Thomas.
Ball-striking and distance are also highly important, especially in the thinner air where all three of the par-5s are reachable and can be aggressively attacked to set up eagle and birdie chances that are vital to success. Past course history also matters this week as TPC Scottsdale is the fourth most predictive course based on past performance.
The Field
After three consecutive weeks of course rotations and pro-am set-ups, we are back to normal tournament golf. It’s a smaller 136-player field with a cut after 36 holes and the top 65 and ties advance to the weekend. Scheffler, The No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) will be going for his third straight WM Phoenix Open victory at TPC Scottsdale. The last golfer to win three straight events on the PGA Tour was Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic from 2009-11.
Even with this year’s tournament not being a “Signature” event as it was last season with players competing for a $20 million purse (only $8.8 million this year), there is still a strong field in Scottsdale this week, and fan interest is as strong as ever with general admission tickets already sold out for Friday and Saturday. Seven of the top 10 players and 23 of the top 40 in Official World Golf Rankings will be in attendance. Other past champions of this event who are included in the field this week include Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, and Gary Woodland.
Past Winners/Odds
Betting Strategy
Even with five consecutive “100-1 or greater” winners to start the year, from an outright betting perspective, this is typically not a week to target longshots. Since 2014, we have seen the cream rise to the top here year after year. According to the winning trends for this week, signs point to a “top-notch” player winning this event. This is factored into my betting card for the week. There are still some really good values in the placement market that I like based on the results of my model (below).
According to DataGolf, course history at TPC Scottsdale is the third most predictive of any course on Tour, behind only Augusta National and Waialae CC. That means players who have seen success here in the past are more likely to repeat than most other courses. I am emphasizing past course performance more heavily than normal.
This week is mainly about ball-striking and it all starts from off the tee. I am heavily weighing strong players off the tee in Total Driving. Total Driving is an “old-school” golf stat that equally balances driving distance and fairway accuracy. For a course like TPC Scottsdale, it is very useful because an equal combination of both will be paramount to setting up easier and higher-lofted approach shots into these rock-hard greens. I have also placed emphasis on prolific par-5 scorers. While there are only three par-5s, they account for over 44% of the scoring on this course.
Along with gaining strokes OTT, the second ingredient in the ball-striking recipe is successful approach play. We have seen elite approach golfers win this event year after year. With “Proximity to the Hole” being one of the most difficult on Tour at almost 40 feet, pinpoint approach shots are one way to separate from the field at TPC Scottsdale.
Getting a decrease in my model this week are the short-game metrics. As previously mentioned, around the green play has proven to lack relevance for success here. And with numerous winners at this event being downright bad putters, we could definitely see another below-average putter such as Hideki Matsuyama or Ryan Fox have success.
Related to the closing stretch of holes, it’s a risk-reward week at the WM Phoenix Open with three must-score par 5s and the driveable par 4 17th. Players who are aggressive and skilled at Going For The Green will have a huge edge. Included in my model for the week is a number of stats that relate to Par 5 Scoring and “GFG” metrics including “Aggression” rate which measures how often players go for the green off the tee or on the 2nd shot on a par 5.
Also, keep in mind that with players ejecting from the leaderboard on the closing stretch over the weekend, it’s a great week to save some units for live action. As mentioned, the par 4 17th is the most stressful and exciting hole on the course. Tournaments are won and lost here (just ask Sahith Theegala). It is because of holes like the 17th that since 2009, only two 54-hole leaders have managed to close out and win the tournament on Sunday.
Most Important Stats For Success at the WM Phoenix Open
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Total Driving
- Birdie or Better %
- Scoring Opportunities <15 ft
- TPC Scottsdale Course History
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par-5 Scoring
- SG: OTT
- Good Drive %
- Scrambling – Short Grass
WM Phoenix Open – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Max Homa +1800
While his ball-striking was not up to par at Pebble Beach, expect Homa to rebound in a big way this week. The list of golfers who have won here is full of elite ball-strikers, many of whom have a reputation for being below-average putters. I took the top 20 ball-strikers (SG: OTT + SG: APP) in the field over the past year (of which Homa is in the top five) and out of those 20, Max Homa has the best combination of putting upside and consistency, not only overall, but also on these Poa Trivialis greens.
(1.1u) BetMGM
Min Woo Lee +3500
Back to the well for one of the best young talents in the game who is flying under the radar this week. With his elite ability off the tee on a course he can pound away with driver combined with his short-game skill both putting and in the tight-lie collection areas around the greens, Lee is one of my favorite plays this week in all formats.
(0.68u) DraftKings
Hideki Matsuyama +5000 (currently +4000)
With course history being so predictive here and combined with a weaker upper-tier of players in this field, Matsuyama should continue to thrive at a course that highlights his ability off the tee along with his precise iron game. Having already won here twice, and with five top-16 finishes over his past seven starts in Scottsdale, I’ll take these odds and trust his skillset to lead him into contention.
(0.48u) BetMGM
Ryan Fox +17500 (currently +15000)
First off, Fox is the 34th-ranked player in the entire world. He has won multiple worldwide events. He simply lacks experience on PGA Tour courses that he has never played before such as here at TPC Scottsdale. On a course that demands “Total Driving” ability, players with both distance and accuracy to avoid water hazards and desert waste areas will have a huge advantage. Fox is one of the best in the field off the tee and has the all-around game both around the greens and on approach to give himself a shot to not only have a high finish but to also contend throughout the weekend.
(0.15u) BetRivers
Other Outright Bets
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Justin Thomas +175 (1u) – BetRivers
Top 20 – all
- Max Homa -110 (1.1u) – FanDuel
- Jordan Spieth +105 (1u) – BetRivers
- Sam Burns +110 (1u) – FanDuel
- Benny An +125 (1u) – BetMGM
- J.T. Poston +138 (1u) – BetMGM
Top 30 – all BetRivers
- Sungjae Im -120 (1.2u)
- Min Woo Lee -110 (1.1u)
- Tom Kim -110 (1.1u)
- Cameron Young -105 (1.1u)
- Hideki Matsuyama +120 (1u)
- Eric Cole +105 (1u)
- Sahith Theegala +110 (1u)
Top 40 – all BetRivers
- Shane Lowry -110 (1.1u)
- Ryan Fox +163 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images