With one week left before the Masters and the year’s first major, the PGA Tour gathers at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio for the 103rd edition of the Valero Texas Open. This tournament was founded in 1922 and is the third longest-running event on the PGA Tour. It has been held in the San Antonio area since its origins and has relocated to numerous courses before finding its current home in 2010 when Adam Scott was victorious.
TPC San Antonio winds through the narrow corridors of the Cibolo Canyons, just north of Texas’s second most populous city. With fairways lined by brush and mature oak trees, tricky pin positions on elevated greens, one of the most challenging sets of par 5s on Tour, and gusty “Texas” winds, it plays as the 13th most demanding annual PGA course with golfers averaging +0.02 strokes per round. It’s a unique layout in that it balances narrow tree-lined alleys with wide fairways that provide strategic angles for approach shots.
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There have been some shocking winners in the event in past years. From Corey Conners winning as a qualifier in 2019 to Andrew Landry at 200-1 in 2018 and Steven Bowditch triumphing in 2014 with odds of 350-1 – anything is possible on the leaderboard come Sunday. Ultimately, it’s a complete challenge from tee to green that doesn’t favor any specific type of player. Keeping the ball in play off the tee, hitting accurate approaches to the proper quadrant on the greens, and gaining strokes on the par 5s are among the ingredients needed for success.
The Field
Over 25 golfers are playing this event as their warm-up for Augusta National. Even with each of the top-4 ranked players in the world sitting this one out, it includes one of the best overall fields ever in San Antonio with six of the top-16 players in the world including Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, and Patrick Cantlay. Other high-ranked and notable golfers include Maverick McNealy, Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, last year’s defending champion, Akshay Bhatia, and two-time winner here Corey Conners.
For golfers not yet into the Masters, it is the last chance players will have to make it into Augusta with the winner earning a spot in next week’s field. Motivation will be high for those not qualified. It’s a great week to chase unqualified golfers as eight of the past 12 winners were not originally in the Masters field. On the flip side, certain Masters participants have appeared to use this week for different purposes. Masters champion, Jordan Spieth won here in 2021 while another stalwart at Augusta National, Conners (three top-10s) has won twice in the last five years at TPC San Antonio. On a course with specific similarities to Augusta National, this week is also a great opportunity to work on shots in a competitive atmosphere to prepare for next week.
Finish Position and Strokes Gained History at TPC San Antonio (2016-2024)
This includes the average finish position and Strokes Gained per round since 2016 for each of the categories. Players are sorted by SG: Total. TPC San Antonio is the 5th (out of 44) most predictive annual course on Tour.
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Course Features
The Valero Texas Open is the oldest professional golf tournament to be held in the same city in its entire existence. Located north of the downtown area in the Texas Hill Country, the par-72 course stretches out to 7,438 yards. It is slightly longer than average and ranks as the 19th-longest course in the annual Tour rotation. Ironically, the course was designed by LIV golf tour’s CEO Greg Norman, and he was consulted on the build by current LIV player Sergio Garcia.
As opposed to many of the bland TPC courses, one of Norman’s goals was to bring out the rugged natural landscape of the property. Situated at 1,100 feet above sea level, the course is relatively flat with only around 100 feet of elevation change between the highest and lowest points. The course itself winds through oak trees and is filled with rocky areas and native grasses and plants.
The agronomy team at TPC San Antonio overseeds both the fairways and rough with a mix of 80% Perennial Ryegrass and 20% Chewing Fescue. The rough is short at only 2.25”. Similar to other courses we have seen in the past couple of months, the greens are overseeded with Poa trivialis. Greens used to be on the slower side, but over the last few years, the Tour has increased the speeds to be more comparable to Augusta National.
With only three water hazards and non-penal rough, it doesn’t seem like it should be a difficult track, but TPC San Antonio can be a stern challenge as it typically plays firm with windy conditions. There are only two non-par 5 holes that average under par. Historically, the course has averaged more double bogeys or worse than all courses except for PGA National and TPC Sawgrass. It requires a certain level of accuracy off the tee along with stellar iron play on approaches. And even with a full allotment of four par 5s, these are the toughest group of par 5s on Tour. That being said, the ability to score on these holes is one of the few ways for players to separate from the field at this course. Six of the past ten winners led the field in par 5 scoring for the week.
The main variable regarding how tough it plays will be the wind strength. Like with all Texas courses, gusty conditions can be a constant factor. It can play extremely difficult if breezes come from a northerly direction, which is the prevailing San Antonio wind during the spring. In 2016 and 2017, with high winds affecting play, the winning score dipped down to 12-under for both years. Even with the course playing easier over the past four years, scoring has still averaged around even par, which illustrates the fact that bogeys are waiting for those not sharp with their game. Said 2016 winner, Charley Hoffman on the wind factor, “If the wind doesn’t blow, guys can shoot 5, 6, 7 under on this golf course. If the wind blows, it’s a totally different story.”
Players will also need to deal with strategically placed cavernous bunkers, heavily forested brush areas (see Kevin Na video below), and undulating green complexes. While the number of bunkers is below average (only 64), they are quite deep and surround the greens where errant approach shots are most likely to occur. The wind also has the biggest effect on approaches into the numerous elevated greens where there are runoff areas to collect stray shots.
Hole Preview
TPC San Antonio features the standard par-72 assortment of ten par-4s, four par-5s, and four par-3s. Even though it lies in rugged terrain amidst the Texas Hill Country, there are seemingly no holes that stand out with their own unique identity. Including the 602-yard second hole, the first four holes add up to 1,708 yards and 0.36 shots over par making it vital that players are focused and striking the ball well from the start.
Most of the front-nine holes are quite similar with slight dog legs and bunkers guarding both sides of the green. There are five par-4s under 410 yards and the four par-5s are among the longest on Tour, averaging 588 yards. Three of the four par-5s are difficult to reach in two shots and, overall, they rank as the toughest on Tour. Competent wedge play is vital in setting up birdie chances on the par-5s.
One unique characteristic of TPC San Antonio is that the holes were designed to play downhill if players are hitting into the prevailing wind and uphill with the wind at their back. This feature prevents bombers off the tee from gaining a significant advantage.
The 347-yard 17th hole might be the most interesting hole on the course. It can stretch out to 366 yards and is potentially a driveable hole when not hitting into a southerly wind. Greenside bunkers on both sides guard the front of the hole, but it presents a risk-reward opportunity for some excitement down the stretch.
The par-5 591-yard 18th hole is one of the more underrated closing holes on Tour. Not only does it play uphill, but the creek that traverses the fairway can cause issues on erratic drives. While it has a Birdie or Better rate of 25%, it also has a bogey or worse rate of 16%.
Strokes Gained Analysis
Off the Tee
TPC San Antonio is a very unique course off the tee. While many driveable holes have narrow tree-lined fairways, others are much wider. The average Driving Accuracy here is only 52% compared with the Tour average of 60%. The last two years have seen this number dip down to 48.8% thanks to the firm turf and windy conditions.
The data shows that “general” accuracy off the tee does not matter as much because the rough is among the least penal on Tour. In fact, the average proximity margin between hitting from the rough compared to the fairway is only seven feet. Even more amazing is that the Birdie or Better percentage over the last five years when hitting the second shot from the rough is higher than from the fairway! Related to the ease of scoring from the rough, past champion Jimmy Walker noted, “Driving the ball in the rough isn’t going to be a big deal this week, just because it’s not very long. You can get some pretty nice lies in the rough. So that’s just a South Texas thing right now this time of year.”
While almost every driving hole is flanked by either rocky terrain or native Texas brush, it will only impact those wildly spraying their ball off the tee. As Jordan Spieth commented, “You can’t make many mistakes off the tee, you’ve got to be hitting fairways because it’s not just like bunkers on one side. A lot of holes you have rocks and brush off both sides of the fairway.” Distance From the Edge of the Fairway is a key stat this week that measures which players are the most inaccurate with their errant drives. You can find this metric in searchable form only on our custom stat database called “The Rabbit Hole.”
Fairway bunkers are deeper and more troublesome than usual but they are scattered throughout the track and don’t figure prominently on that many drives. While shorter more accurate types have a better chance of keeping the ball out of trouble, longer hitters have an advantage on holes that play into the wind along with the opportunity to take more lofted clubs into firm “bouncy” greens on approach. Yet, Driving Distance has proven to be almost as inconsequential as accuracy off the tee. Many shorter hitters have had plenty of success on past leaderboards including Chris Kirk, Corey Conners, Kevin Streelman, Andrew Landry, Matt Kuchar, and Lucas Glover.
In summary, neither distance nor pinpoint accuracy is vital off the tee at TPC San Antonio. The fact that you do not need to have length here is evidenced by the fact that the last seven winners have averaged 44th for Driving Distance. 2022’s winner J.J. Spaun ranked 95th, and 2023’s winner, Corey Conners ranked 106th. As for Driving Accuracy, back in 2019, the top five finishers averaged ninth. This was followed by 2021’s winner, Jordan Spieth, ranking 109th. Last year’s winner, Akshay Bhatia finished 63rd in accuracy.
Approach
All the seeming variety and randomness off the tee is a definite reason TPC San Antonio is one of the top “second-shot” courses. Last year, it was the seventh toughest layout to gain strokes on approach. Not only are the greens heavily guarded by difficult and deep bunkers, but many are also elevated above the fairway and do not provide bailout areas for errant shots. Players will also need to loft approach shots onto the proper quadrants of the greens due to the many undulations to get the ball to funnel as close to the pin as possible.
With the average approach distance at 164 yards, players will be taking plenty of wedges and short irons into these greens. 24% of approaches are inside 125 yards. With so many long par-5s, “Going for the Green” data shows these holes are difficult to score on because only 11% of second shots into the par-5s actually hold the green. We also see double the average number of approach shots from over 250 yards at 19%. Throw in some windy conditions and you can see very quickly why approaches can be so challenging here.
Around the Greens and Putting
With so many greens in regulation missed, players who are proficient at scrambling and chipping into elevated pin positions from off the green will have an advantage. While scrambling is slightly easier overall than average, sand saves from the bunkers are amongst the most difficult on Tour.
Depending on the weather, calmer winds lead to a higher GIR %, lessening the importance of around-the-green play. It is interesting to note that six of the last nine winners have ranked outside the top-30 in SG: ARG. And of the last 11 winners, only Spieth in 2021 was gaining strokes with their short game in the six months leading up to their Valero win.
While the overseeded Poa trivialis greens are contoured and sloping to various degrees, this affects players more on approach than with putting. TPC San Antonio ranks in the middle of the pack related to putting difficulty. The data shows putting to be more difficult than average from 20+ feet outside the hole. But once players get inside that number, putting is much easier, including one of the highest one-putt percentages on Tour at 43%. Only six of the last 14 winners of this event have finished inside the top 10 in SG: Putting the year they won.
Most Important Stats For Success at the Valero Texas Open
- Course Region: Texas
- Course Length: Long
- Scoring Conditions: Difficult
- Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
- OTT Gain: Difficult
- OTT Club: Mixed
- Fairway Accuracy: Difficult
- APP Gain: Very Difficult
- GIR Accuracy: Difficult
- Rough Penalty: Low
- Par 5 Scoring: Difficult
- Sand Saves: Difficult
- Gain Putting > 15′: Difficult
Weather Forecast – San Antonio, TX
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- SG: APP
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 5 Scoring
- Scrambling
- Good Drive %
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis)
- Distance From Edge of Fairway
- Sand Save %
- Proximity 50-125 yds
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Texas
- Course Length: Long
- Scoring Conditions: Difficult
- Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
- OTT Gain: Difficult
- OTT Club: Mixed
- Fairway Accuracy: Difficult
- APP Gain: Very Difficult
- GIR Accuracy: Difficult
- Rough Penalty: Low
- Par 5 Scoring: Difficult
- Sand Saves: Difficult
- Gain Putting > 15′: Difficult
Weather Forecast – San Antonio, TX
Gambling Problem? Call one eight hundred gambler. In New York, call eight seven seven eight HOPENY or text HOPENY at four six seven three six nine. In
Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling. Call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit C C P G dot org. Eighteen plus in
most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. New customers only. Minimum ten dollar deposit required. One single-use ten dollar ticket rewarded for Fantasy Golf Millionaire Contest that expires on April tenth at seven A M. See terms at draftkings dot come slash promotions.