Each week, I share the top 20 players in our model’s projections based on win percentage. I also include reactions to the initial results and context as to why certain players landed higher or lower than the market. Here are the results for this week’s U.S. Open:
- Cam Smith is as streaky of a player as any. After winning The Players Championship and finishing tied for third at The Masters, Smith doesn’t have a single top-10 finish in his last five tournaments. That’s likely due to his atrocious -0.12 strokes gained off-the-tee in his last 20 rounds. But, what’s carrying him to the top of the leaderboard this week is his phenomenal 1.55 strokes gained on approach (second-best in that span).
- Coming off of playing in the final grouping of the RBC Canadian Open, Tony Finau puts himself in position to make more noise at the US Open this week. In addition to seven straight T41 finishes and three T5 finishes in his last five, Finau ranks 12th overall in strokes gained off-the-tee over his last 20 rounds. Finau hasn’t made the cut at the US Open since his fifth-place finish in 2018, but we don’t expect history to repeat itself this week.
- Though Will Zalatoris has played extremely well in both major tournaments this year, we are not expecting that to continue this week at The Country Club in Brookline. However, on either side of the PGA Championship, Zalatoris failed to miss the cut before tying for fifth this past week. His 0.93 strokes gained off-the-tee over his last 20 rounds are good enough for fifth overall, but his 0.67 strokes gained on approach leave a bit to be desired.
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