The Masters – Betting Preview

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With the best players in the world finally reunited on the immaculate grounds of Augusta National Golf Club, “The Masters Tournament, A Tradition Unlike Any Other” has arrived for its 90th edition. Played at one of the most exclusive clubs in the world, Augusta National is also the most iconic course in golf. Built at the height of the Great Depression on the grounds of a former plant nursery, each hole is named after the tree or flower that defines it.

From the moment players drive down Magnolia Lane to the pressure packed stretch of Amen Corner, Augusta is steeped in imagery and tradition. The blooming azaleas and dogwoods, the roars echoing through the pines, and the pursuit of the coveted Green Jacket have all become part of golf lore. Whether experienced in person or from afar, the sensory overload and breathtaking beauty of this hallowed ground are truly unmatched.

Featuring generous fairways, demanding approach shots, and severely sloped lightning-fast green complexes, Augusta National is a course that will test every club in the bag and each player’s fortitude. Remarked five-time top-10 finisher Xander Schauffele, “You are asked to hit shots this week that you don’t hit anywhere else.”

Golfers with strong tee to green form, who have a proven track record at Augusta National Golf Club and other major championships, will hold a clear edge this week. Augusta National has the most predictive course history, and it’s not particularly close. Length off the tee, precision with mid to long iron approaches, imaginative short game play, and the ability to capitalize on par 5 scoring opportunities are all critical components for success.

The Field

The Masters is the only major golf event played at the same course every year. Players competing here receive their opportunity by invitation only after meeting certain qualifications, leaving the field to only around 90 total golfers. Qualifying criteria include:

  • Ranked in the top-50 of the Official World Golf Rankings
  • Major winners from the last five years
  • PGA Tour winners (minus the fall events) since last year’s Masters
  • Special Invites, including the winners of the Scottish Open, Spanish Open, Japan Open, Hong Kong Open, Australian Open, and South African Open

The top 50 players (plus ties) qualify to compete on the weekend. The field sits at 91 golfers for this year’s event and is among the strongest ever assembled. Every single player ranked in the current top-50 in the world will be in attendance this week. It appears to be more of a wide-open tournament this year as the consensus top two players in the field each have question marks about the state of their game.

For the first time in his career, Rory McIlroy will drive down Magnolia Lane this week as a Masters champion. Nearly a year ago, McIlroy made a 4-foot birdie putt on the 18th hole to defeat England’s Justin Rose on the first hole of a sudden-death playoff. Though his recent form has been shaky, including having to withdraw from the Arnold Palmer Invitational a month ago due to a back injury, he remains one of the favorites to win. His three-week layoff is tied for the longest of his career entering the Masters.

World No. 1 and two-time Masters winner Scottie Scheffler enters the week with more questions surrounding his game than at any point in recent memory. After going an entire calendar year without finishing worse than T8, his last three starts have resulted in T22, T24, and T12, accompanied by some of his weakest approach numbers in years. With the recent birth of his second child, Scheffler has not followed his typical preparation for The Masters Tournament and has not competed since The Players Championship three weeks ago.

Six amateurs are competing, including U.S. Amateur champion Mason Howell. The final field includes only 10 members of LIV Golf – seven of which are past champions. In total, 18 previous winners are scheduled to play: McIlroy, Scheffler, Jon RahmHideki MatsuyamaDustin JohnsonPatrick ReedSergio GarciaDanny WillettJordan SpiethBubba WatsonAdam ScottCharl Schwartzel, Angel Cabrera, Zach JohnsonMike WeirVijay Singh, Jose Maria Olazabal and Fred Couples.

Past Winners & Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at Augusta National

  • SG: APP 150+ yds
  • Course History/Majors History
  • Driving Distance (Carry Distance)
  • SG: T2G L24 rds
  • SG: Par 5
  • 3-Putt Avoidance/Approach Putt Performance
  • Scrambling: Short Grass (Difficult)
  • SG: ARG
  • SG: Par 4 (Difficult Scoring)
  • Bogey Avoidance

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

  • Scoring Conditions: Very Difficult
  • Course Length: Very Long
  • Field Strength: Very Strong
  • Event Type: Major
  • Field Size: Small Field
  • Greens Surface: Bent
  • Green Speed: Fast
  • Rough Length: Short
  • OTT Club: Driver Heavy
  • Fairway Accuracy: Easy
  • Gain APP: Very Difficult
  • Par 4 Scoring: Difficult
  • Gain ARG: Very Difficult
  • Scrambling Short Grass: Difficult
  • Gain Putting: Very Difficult
  • 3-Putt AVD: Difficult

The Masters – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dUU9oqUr2kw-_c9jJxtS9E0g5h1stJAmkBYb3wDDMY/edit?usp=sharing

Outright Betting Selections

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.

  • Rahm +1500 (1.6u) – Caesars
  • Schauffele +2000 (1.2u) – 365
  • Fleetwood +2400 (1u) – 365
  • M.W. Lee +6600 (0.36u) – DK

Finish Position

Top 10

  • Schauffele +168 (1u) – DK
  • Aberg +186 (1u) – DK

Top 20

  • Fleetwood -115 (1.5u) – Fanatics
  • Fitzpatrick -105 (1.5u) – Fanatics

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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images