Texas Children's Houston Open - Betting Preview

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With the Florida Swing now complete and just two weeks remaining before the Masters, the PGA Tour heads to the Lone Star State and Memorial Park Golf Course for the Texas Children’s Houston Open. One of the premier public municipal courses in the country, Memorial Park is a long par 70 measuring 7,475 yards, with roots dating back to 1912.

The layout is somewhat unique, featuring five par 3s and three par 5s. Despite its length, the course is relatively straightforward in terms of hazards, with just 21 bunkers and only four holes bringing water into play. The primary defense of the course lies in its unique green complexes, which feature significant undulation, short-grass runoffs, and challenging false fronts. As course superintendent Parker Henry puts it, “Nothing is hidden—it’s all out in front of you. But these green complexes can be treacherous if players don’t hit their target.”

Playing to an average of +0.30 strokes over par per round across its first five editions, Memorial Park has historically emphasized the importance of a well-rounded game. However, with the tournament shifting from its fall slot (2020–2022) to the spring over the last two seasons, changes in agronomy have allowed the course to play less challenging overall. What was once a wall-to-wall Bermudagrass setup has transitioned to overseeded conditions, most notably with Poa trivialis on the greens.

The most impactful change, though, has come in the rough—moving from a penal 2.5″ Bermuda to a much more manageable 1.25″ ryegrass overseed. As a result, what was previously one of the more demanding non-major tee-to-green tests on Tour has softened. Players are now able to take a more aggressive approach out of the rough, without the same concern for flyers or unpredictable lies typically associated with Bermuda.

Both the data and the typical player field point to Memorial Park being one of the most pronounced courses for “bombers” on the PGA Tour. Whether looking at past winners like Min Woo Lee, Stephan Jaeger, Tony Finau, and Carlos Ortiz, or contenders such as Scottie Scheffler, Dustin Johnson, Thomas Detry, and Alejandro Tosti, a common thread emerges—elite distance off the tee. The same trend holds among players with consistent course history, including Taylor Pendrith, Wyndham Clark, and Keith Mitchell. As the second-longest course on Tour, those who can overpower the layout off the tee tend to hold a significant advantage.

The Field

Headlining the 135-player field are seven of the top-30 ranked players in the world led by No. 1 Scottie Scheffler who has played this event every year he’s been on Tour and has three T2 finishes since 2020. Other notables include Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin, Harris English, Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, and Ryan Gerard. Min Woo Lee also returns to defend his 2024 title.

Past major champions Wyndham Clark, Jason Day, Lucas Glover, Adam Scott and Gary Woodland are also in the field as is Brooks Koepka, who is once again playing in a non-signature event as part of his return to the PGA Tour from LIV Golf.

Most Important Stats For Success at Memorial Park

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Driving Distance
Scrambling (Short Grass)
Scoring Opps i15% (150+)
Bogey Avoidance
SG: OTT (Driver Heavy)
Birdie or Better %
SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis/Overall)
Proximity 200+ yards
3-Putt AVD

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Texas
Scoring Conditions: Difficult
Course Length: Very Long
Field Strength: Weak
Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
Green Size: Large
Green Speed: Fast
Rough Length: Short
OTT Club: Driver Heavy
Gain ARG: Difficult
Scrambling Short Grass: Difficult

Houston Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.