There are admittedly fewer impactful golfers competing in Palm Harbor this week due to the short (and grueling) turnaround on everyone’s bodies; Paul Casey, Doug Ghim, Joaquin Niemann, Taylor Pendrith, and Patrick Rodgers, just to name a few, have already thrown in the towel. That leaves far less compelling cheap value for us to roster since the pool has been back-ended with borderline talent. For more tournament content, check out our BetSperts Golf DFS Show, Sam Hoppen’s Projections Preview, Ryan Noonan’s Betting Card, and Ron Klos’ Tournament Breakdown.
The following names are listed in order of importance and will be updated through Thursday morning:
Vaughn Taylor ($6700 DraftKings, $7200 FanDuel) — As Klos noted during our DFS Show, Taylor is the only player in this field ranked Top 30 in Driving Accuracy, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Around the Green — three categories we should weigh heavily since pine trees and weaving fairways await off the very first tee. Furthermore, only Sam Burns (4.6) has averaged more birdies per round at The Valspar Championship than Taylor (3.8) since 2015. Our crew is also high on the latter to clinch a Top 20 finish (+450).
Adam Hadwin ($7900 DK, $9400 FD) — Severely discounted on DraftKings in particular, Hadwin is our favorite play below $8,000 for his recent form around the green including 3.7 Strokes Gained: Approach in three of his past four events. We are expecting him to be highly rostered given his course history in winning his only PGA title here in 2017.
Aaron Wise ($7700 DK, $9500 FD) — Obligatory mention for #TeamNoPutt since Wise’s long irons — a club used frequently here since the average Approach shot has come from 194 yards out — have recently allowed him to gain 10.2 shots T2G (Tee to Green) at Bay Hill and 5.5 on Approach at the PLAYERS. Much more palatable on DraftKings.
Charley Hoffman ($7100 DK, $8700 FD) — Only Colin Morikawa (83.3%), Mark Hensby (80%), and Justin Thomas (78.7%) have avoided bogey (or worse) following their approach shots at a higher rate than Hoffman (76.9%) over the last six weeks, which is the type of ‘boring’ play we should prioritize since Copperhead has snakebit its entrants for the fewest birdies per 72 holes over the Tour’s last five rounds. Volatile since Hoffman has landed in the fairway at the eighth-lowest rate among this field in that span.
Mito Pereira ($7200 DK, $8900 FD) — Pereira checks all the boxes we’re looking for in his range including ranking No. 6 in this field in Bogey Avoidance and No. 8 in Scrambling over his last 36 rounds.
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