After a bit of a breather last week with the Zurich team event, we’re back at it this week with a Signature Event, as the PGA Tour returns to the Blue Monster at Doral, kicking off an elite three-week stretch of golf. This will be the first time the PGA Tour has hosted an event at Doral in over a decade, but we have seen it in play recently with LIV Golf playing here in each of the past four seasons. The course will play around 300 yards longer than it did the last time the PGA Tour was here, stretched out to nearly 7,800 yards from the tips following Gil Hanse’s 2014 renovation.
The field strength at LIV muddies the data, but when they came here in 2025 as a tune-up for the Masters, 6 of the 54 players in the field (11%) finished under par, while 16 players (30%) finished 10+ or worse. The winds kicked up, which can always happen in South Florida, but even with an improved field, I think we’re looking at a scoring average that’s around 72.5-73 for the week. The winning score was in the single digits in two of the three years the Tour played here post-reno, and it’s playing even longer this time around.
This is also our first 2026 look at a southeast venue without overseeding, as Doral is covered in Bermuda grass from tip to tails. Off the tee in 2016, Doral had the most penalty strokes out of any course on Tour. It’s a demanding ball-striking test, and if you’re oversimplifying the handicap this week, that’s the area to focus on.
This is a 72-man no-cut Signature Event field, though some notable names are missing this week, largely due to its place on the schedule. That opens the door for a few other elite drivers who don’t have to contend with Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Ludvig Aberg, who are all skipping this event.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the Doral course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- Rolling Form (L6M, L24 Rounds)
- SG: Total (Long Courses/Difficult Scoring Conditions)
- SG: Ball-Striking (Difficult to gain OTT/APP)
- Hybrid Total Driving (70% Distance/30% DFEF)
- Good Drive% (Long Courses)
- Short Game (Bermuda)
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.
For outrights, I typically allot 1.5 to 2 units, sometimes more for bigger events. It prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. Anything beyond that is gravy. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s Cadillac Championship Outright Betting Picks
Cameron Young (15/1)
I thought Cameron Young‘s outright price would suffer with McIlroy, Schauffele, Fitzpatrick, and Aberg skipping the event, but I’m more than happy to see 15/1 on Monday morning. Young sits atop my model this week, with him and Scottie Scheffler separating from the pack.
Another key handicapping element for me this week is performance on and around the green on Bermuda grass. We’ve made it through “overseed” season, with Doral being the first true Bermuda grass test on the 2026 calendar. And if you’ve never played on Bermuda, it’s different, and the splits are worth exploring. Dating back to the start of 2025, Young ranks third in SG: Short game on Bermuda, gaining 1.22 strokes per round on the field. There’s a lot to like here, and I’m extremely bullish on Cameron Young this summer.
Chris Gotterup (35/1)
It’s never as simple as looking at a singular metric, but if I were to drill down on what matters most this week at Doral, it has to be a player’s ability to gain strokes off the tee under difficult conditions. Water hazards, strategically placed bunkers, and pinched fairways, all on a nearly 7,800-yard track, create a unique test for this week’s field off the tee. Over the past 12 months and 50 rounds, no one’s gained strokes off the tee at a higher rate than Chris Gotterup.
Gotterup has easy distance off the tee, and has shown an ability to flight his ball in different windows, which I like this week in case the wind kicks up. He continues to impress, showing that last year’s improvements are real. Over the past 12 months, Gotterup has gained 3+ strokes in ball-striking on long or very long courses in 20.9% of his rounds, which is the third-highest rate in this week’s field.
Gary Woodland (82/1)
Yeah, the win in Houston was a feel-good story for Gary Woodland, but he looks ready to compete every week right now. Woodland followed up his win at Memorial Park, another driver-centric distance test, with a T33 and then an impressive T8 at Harbour Town. The strong Harbour Town finish just shows me that he’s building confidence because that’s certainly not a venue that suits his game well, or a spot that he’s sniffed a T20 before in four previous starts.
Woodland has gained an average of 1.11 strokes ball-striking over the past 20 rounds, and of the six other players who have gained 1.1 or more in that time frame, Woodland’s 0.60 strokes gained putting is the best of the bunch. Considering that Woodland’s been one of the worst putters on Tour for stretches, this is a remarkable turnaround.
Michael Thorbjornsen (100/1)
Thor was added to the field after Patrick Cantlay withdrew due to illness. I can’t sit out here when this is the perfect setup for his game. His first PGA Tour win coming at a Signature Event field is a big ask, but this is a great blend of course fit and price.
