Mayo’s 2026 Farmers Insurance Open Cheatsheet: Bets, Weather, One And Done Picks, Underdog, DraftKings Notes

Sorry about the LIVE SHOW last week. Didn’t want to put everyone through me being sick and trying to stay awake. BUT WE’RE BACK THIS WEEK!!!!!

Wednesday at 8pm ET, I’ll be taking any questions you may have and running through the latest news. See ya there

LIVE at 8pm ET: 2026 Farmers Q&A 🔴 Betting, Fantasy Golf Questions

2026 Farmers Insurance Open QUICK BETS

WINNER

BOMBS

TOP 40 PARLAY

  • Salinda/Rosenmuller/Roy/Valimaki/Ford +53468
  • Played as 4 and 3 way Round Robins too

LPGA

Brooke Henderson +2200

2026 Farmers Insurance Open HOT LINKS

2026 Farmers Insurance Open PICKS

Cam Young — At a difficult, driver-heavy course, why not back the top driver in the field with a penchant for attacking leaderboards at difficult tracks? Cam Young’s breakthrough at the Wyndham was great and everything, but a win at Torrey Pines puts him firmly puts him into the conversation as a legit Majors contender. I convinced Coolbet to boost Young’s betting number. So, if you’re Canadian (outside Ontario), come join me on Young.

J.J. Spaun — I was torn between a bunch of players in this range (mainly Spaun vs Gotterup) and decided to go with the California guy who went to San Diego State. Spaun has highs and low at Torrey Pines in his career yet, unless some has dramatically changed in the past month, Spaun’s leveled up as a golfer. Great combo of drive and long irons to match his historically high-level Poa Annua putting, and obviously, he can win at a hard course.

Sam Stevens — Stevens ball striking has been locked in to open 2026 and he’s has excelled the past year at driver heavy courses: T3 3M, T2 CJ Cup, T18 Houston. Not to mention his solid history at Farmers: 2nd/T43/T13. He’s never lost to the field off the tee at the South Course or failed to pick up strokes around the green. Even taking a gander at his U.S. Open performances reveals someone comfortable at longer, more difficult tracks: T23/T43/T49.

Pierceson Coody — Coody made all five cuts in the swing and has opened 2026 with a pair of Top 15 finishes. He’s first in SG: OTT over the past six months with his lethal combo of distance (3rd) and accuracy (35th) to complement his improving short game (26th)

Nicolai Hojgaard — Nicolai was trending better towards the end of last season with three Top 15 finishes over his final five PGA TOUR starts, including a T4 in Scotland and a T14 at The Open. He’s made four starts worldwide since, going T3/T11 in the DP World Tour playoffs, and a T52/T4 run through Dubai the past two weeks. Nicolai’s fifth in the field in ball speed, third in distance, and earned a silver medal in his first and only start at The Farmers in 2024.

Johnny Keefer — Keefer has flashed incredible ball striking through the first two events (+1.51/round) which is should be expected after being the top player on the Korn Ferry Tour a year ago. It may be too much too quickly for the 25-year-old, but at this number, it’s certainly worth a gamble on the talent and skill match. The lack of short game is a bit concerning.

Aldrich Potgieter & Karl Vilips — We’re just having fun now. I ran Potgieter a year ago at 600/1 and he ended up in the final group before imploding quite quickly in the final round. Since? He’s won on TOUR and had another runner up along the way, so why not take a shot again? And, frankly, I’m just a sucker for Vilips. He came through with a win at driver-heavy PRO last year and actually tore up the Stadium Course last weekend. He’s more likely to be Patrick Rodgers 2.0 than win this event, but a chance on a potential future star who is more used to California Poa greens than most players of his experience level is good enough for me.

2026 Farmers Insurance Open WEATHER

Unless wind pops up out of nowhere (which isn’t crazy since the property is ocean adjacent), it’s looking like gusts will keep under 10mph for all four rounds. Stack your golfers from the North Course the first two rounds in Single Day picks contests and let it ride.

WIND TOWER: Torrey Pines Gliderport

2026 Farmers Insurance Open DRAFTKINGS

As I’ve already spoken and written about this week, I’m going to be heavily invested in DraftKings Showdown contests over the full tournament slates. The Strategy: Use players from the North Course. Don’t overthink it.

For round one, the top end picks are made for you. There are only so many $8,000+ players on the North Course on Thursday. So, a lot of lineups will be 3 versus 3, with the bottom end making the difference. You can take that chance or you can find different ways to build.

If you’re comfortable with leaving a bunch of salary cap on the table, you can instantly make teams completely unique against so many similar lineups by simply using the Rabbit Hole Optimizer and adjusting the Salary Range. (Anyone with a Fantasy National or Betsperts Golf membership can use this, btw.)

Stats & Tools Provided by Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole

I went into the optimizer and manually eliminated every player from the South Course, used the Rabbit Hole research tools (aka, sort by Driving Distance, Birdie or Better %, and Eagle %) eliminated the players I don’t want from the North Course, then came up with a core of 10-15 players from the bottom end to mix and match and hopefully luck into the right combos.

I even eliminated some of the top players on the slate (Keegan, Hideki, Day) and ran a separate set of lineups just to give me a few more unique outs to get to the top if some of the bigger names aren’t required.

For the full tournament, I’m guessing a lot of lineups are going to start with a 10K player then a combo of one high 9K + low 8K/High7K (like Spaun/Day + Knapp/R. Hojgaard/Stevens) or a low 9K/High 8K (Gotterup/Pendrith) which naturally drops those lineups into the mid 7s/high 6s where some combination of Thorbjornsen, N. Hojgaard, Coody, Rodgers, Akshay, Castillo, Smotherman, Wacky Valimaki will fill out the roster.

While I’ll start some lineups with Ludvig/Young (my preferred 10K players), I think I’m more likely to have some very balanced builds where Spaun or Gotterup are my most expensive players and I don’t drop below $7,500. Or a modified stars and stubs where I use two players mid-6K and below, and pile in my favorite clicks with the money I have left. Most don’t have the blind faith (like me) in players who don’t really ever do well, but focus on good driving and you can find some gems at the bottom.

Stats & Tools Provided by Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole

2026 Farmers Insurance Open UNDERDOG

The full-tournament Underdog Drafts are populating the lobby. The PME CLASSIC RAKE FREE Underdog drafts. $20 per draft, 5-Max, No Rake, Flat payouts. Since this is supposed to be a community-type contest, only 10% goes to the winner. Rasa and I did a LIVE draft on the DFS Picks show Tuesday afternoon, and it was fun, but it also gave us some insight into the popularity of certain mid- to low-end players.

Under: Drafts → PGA

Use code “MAYO” at Underdog for a deposit bonus up to $1000