Surrounded by the golden hills of the Napa Valley, the fall portion of the season begins out west with the Fortinet Championship. California native, Max Homa returns to defend his back-to-back titles from the last two years. Played on the North course at the 1,200-acre property known as the Silverado Resort and Spa, this will be the tenth consecutive year for the resort to host this event.
The North course at Silverado is one of the shortest on Tour and features narrow tree-lined fairways, few hazards, non-penal rough, and tricky sloping greens. It is a very straightforward and scoreable course with a winning score that has averaged 17 under par since 2014.
For the first time in more than a decade, the PGA Tour will not start a new season in September. Rebranded as the “FedEx Cup Fall”, the seven events that will begin with the Fortinet Championship are a continuation of the season that just concluded at the Tour Championship. The 2022-2023 season officially finished a couple of weeks ago with the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings being eligible for all eight “Signature” events as well as any other regular event in 2024.
Those players who finished outside of the top 50 can play in these fall events to improve their standing heading into next season, which includes playing their way into the first two Signature events – the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational. At the end of the fall series the players who finish the calendar year in positions 51-60 will be exempt for those two tournaments.
The Field
As will be the case for the majority of these fall tournaments, the field strength is extremely weak. Overall, only four of the top 50 and 23 of the top 100 ranked players in the world will be in attendance. World No. 7, Max Homa headlines the field this week and looks to become the first player since Steve Stricker (2009, 2010, 2011 John Deere Classic) to win the same event three years in a row. 25th-ranked Justin Thomas will look to sharpen his game in preparation for the Ryder Cup which is three weeks away. World No. 36 Sahith Theegala and No. 49 Cameron Davis are the only other top 50 players in the field.
Betting Strategies
With the return of football, combined with weak strength of fields, golf is often forgotten this time of year. But folks shouldn’t sleep on the fall Swing season here on the PGA Tour. In a few weeks, there will be an influx of new young talent in the form of Korn Ferry Tour graduates and the same green money to be made if you put the time into researching and educating yourself on the players and courses.
With a PGA event being held here at the Silverado Resort & Spa for the past nine consecutive years, we have plenty of course history and data from which to analyze. All types of drivers are welcome here, both bombers and shorter hitters. With a Fairway Accuracy rate of only 51%, everyone will miss fairways. Driving Distance is one my key stats in the “Core 4” and is definitely a bonus on this course as golfers can pick their line off the tee and bomb away if they choose. The list of recent winners here, including Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, Brendan Steele, and Max Homa (twice) would suggest that distance off the tee leads to success. Increased distance leads to shorter irons and wedges into firm greens.
Silverado also has the second-fewest combined hazards when looking at water and bunkers. Bombers who are wildly inconsistent at times off the tee like Sahith Theegala, Taylor Pendrith, and Cameron Davis will not be penalized for wayward drives. For that reason, bomber-types will be one of my primary targets for all types of bets.
While there have been numerous winners here at Silverado who have not been historically good putters, these greens are among the more challenging on Tour. And because of this fact, my SG: Putting sub-model for this event is also par of the weekly “Core 4”. Golfers who are consistent from 5-15 feet and that have past putting success on Poa annua should also be on your radar this week. Players like Max Homa (the best Poa putter in the field) and Brendon Todd are perfect examples.
Instead of going with the full SG: Approach model in the “Core 4” this week, I have narrowed it down to Proximity from the important range of 75-150 yards. One of the main reasons for the GIR% being so high, even from the rough, is that 44% of approach shots come from this range. That is 11% above the Tour average of 33%. Some players who rank high in this proximity metric that I have already bet this week include Eric Cole, Todd, Akshay Bhatia, and Chez Reavie.
Finally, with an average winning score of 17-under over the past eight events, it is imperative to target players with high birdie rates who also generate the most chances inside 15 feet and who can also take advantage of the par-5s. The top five players in the field that rank highest in my Scoring sub-model include Davis, Cole, Bhatia, Reavie and Nate Lashley.
Most Important Stats For Success at Silverado (North)
*In order of importance
- SG: Approach
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: ARG/Scrambling
- Driving Distance
- SG: Par 4: 400-450
- Birdie or Better %
- Proximity: 75-150
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Course History – Silverado (North)
Weather Forecast – Napa, California
Fortinet Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Sahith Theegala +1800
The California native is a great choice to take advantage of a weak field and secure his first PGA Tour victory this week. Silverado is where he made his Tour debut, finishing 14th back in 2020. Last year, he finished 6th gaining 4.1 strokes ball-striking and 4.7 on the greens. He ranks in the top 40 in my model in 14 of 15 categories which is second-best to only Max Homa. His distance off the tee and excellence on these Poa greens should put him in a great position to contend.
(1.33u) BetRivers
Cameron Davis +2500
Similar to Theegala, Silverado is a perfect course for Davis where a bit of wildness off the tee won’t have much of a negative effect this week. For some reason, Davis also tends to thrive on shorter courses. He finished the summer strong with three top-10s in his last four events. He also excels in birdie-fests with weaker fields as evidenced by his top ranking in that category in my model. With approach play being so vital this week, he has gained 13 total strokes in that areas in his last five measured events.
(0.96u) BetRivers
Eric Cole +3500
Cole is another player who is on the verge of breaking out for his first Tour victory. He thrust himself onto the scene with a runner-up finish at the Honda back in February and hasn’t looked back. In the 19 events since, he has ten top-30 finishes and has gained strokes on the field in all but four of them. While not a bomber off the tee, his elite iron play and stellar putting will have him in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
(0.68u) BetRivers
Brendon Todd +4000
While he is never the most exciting option, Todd continues to consistently churn out quality finishes thanks to his ball-striking accuracy and elite short game. It shouldn’t come as a surprise anymore, but he finished second overall in the model this week behind only back-to-back winner at Silverado, Max Homa. His ceiling is actually higher than most believe as evidenced by three top-eight finishes in the last four months. On a short course and with tricky green complexes, this is a perfect course for his game.
(0.60u) BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks – all BetRivers
Top 10
Max Homa +100 (1u) – BetRivers
Top 20
- Sahith Theegala +115 (1.2u)
- Cameron Davis +138 (1u)
Top 30
- Beau Hossler -110 (1.1u)
- Eric Cole +125 (1.1u)
- Brendon Todd +138 (1u)
- Alex Noren +138 (1u)
- Chez Reavie +150 (1u)
Top 40
- Akshay Bhatia +110 (1u)
- Doug Ghim +110 (1u)
- Mark Hubbard +110 (1u)
- Dylan Wu +110 (1u)
- Taylor Pendrith +125 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images