We’re not in South Korea, and we’re not in Vegas; for the first in its history, the CJ Cup is headed to South Carolina. For the first time in its history, the CJ Cup will be held at Congaree Golf Club, and this should be a great swing season event.
Although only completed in 2018, Congaree has quickly become a top 50 course in America. We have seen this course once before on the PGA Tour at the Palmetto Championship in 2021. Garrick Higgo fell into a win, in a leaderboard where long hitters seemed to dominate.
This week we are lucky to have some top names making their season debut. Rory Mcllroy, John Rahm, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, and Matt Fitzpatrick all making their season debut. Given the elite field and course, I think this will be the most exciting and followed PGA Tour event of the swing season.
Congaree Golf Club is a Fazio design, 7,600-yard par 71 with Bermuda grass greens. This course certainly has some length to it, and was saw that play into fruition in 2021.
Another thing to note about this course is that -11 was enough to win last time around. I don’t think that will be far off from the winning score this week. I expect something in the 13-16 under range to take this home.
Let’s get into my favorite bets for the CJ Cup.
Outright: Matt Fitzpatrick +2400 (FanDuel)
In my opinion, this is easily the best value on the board this week. We are getting a major champion on a difficult Bermuda golf course where he has played before. Given the circumstances and the number of 24/1 in a no-cut event, I think this is a value play.
It is no secret that Fitz excels in difficult scoring conditions, as he is the reigning U.S Open Champ. Matt leads this field in bogey avoidance, which will certainly be a massive factor this week. Over the past 50 rounds, Fitz ranks 8th in SG: OTT, 17th in SG: ARG. These are going to be massive factors this week with the course length and the greens’ difficulty.
Fitz was also one of the only top golfers to play this course in 2021, which can only be an advantage. Bet Matt Fitzpatrick to win the 2022 CJ Cup.
Top 10: Shane Lowry +275 (Pointsbet)
Another major champion that excels in difficult conditions is poised for a high finish at the CJ Cup. Shane Lowry just came back into the winner’s circle at the BMW Championship at Wentworth on the DP World Tour. I think winning was the exact confidence boost needed.
I like Shane this week because he seems to do his best work on Southern Bermuda courses. Lowry could have easily been a two-time winner on the PGA Tour this season with extremely close calls at The Honda Classic and The RBC Heritage.
Lowry ranks 2nd in this field in bogey avoidance and 6th in SG: App. I think this a great spot for Shane, and he will find himself atop the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.
Top 20 Sepp Straka +270 (FanDuel)
This number is simply off. There is no way that Sepp Straka should be +270 to finish top 20 in a reduced field, no cut event. Sepp has been playing some spectacular golf since he turned his season around at the St. Jude. Losing in a playoff to Will Zalatoris, Sepp showed he does his best work on difficult Bermuda golf courses.
Sepp backed that up with a great finish at East Lake, finishing in the top 5 on the shadow leaderboard. Staka then had yet another playoff loss at Sanderson Farms. All Bermuda grass courses in the south. All spots he excelled at.
Over the past 12 rounds, Sepp ranks top 10 in both SG: Approach and SG: Ball striking. This is an easy play.
Top 40: Luke List +115 (FanDuel)
I am not someone who normally bets on Luke List. This is due to his extremely poor putting. However, I think this is an excellent spot for Luke. Congaree is a place that I believe you can dominate with length OTT and that is something Luke certainly has.
List ranks 9th in SG: OTT and averages 316 on his drives. As I have alluded to before, I expect this course to play pretty tough this week. This means List won’t have to make a million puts to win. He can tread water in more difficult scoring conditions. Although he missed the cut in his only appearance here, He uncharacteristically lost strokes OTT and actually putted well. I expect that to turn around and for List to find himself in the top 20.
Matchup: Rory McIlroy -130 over John Rahm (DraftKings)
I can’t recall being this scared of a Favorite heading into a golf tournament in quite some time. Rory McIlroy absolutely dominates George Fazio designs. Due to his distance OTT, he can bypass the hazards that Fazio sets up.
3-time winner at Quail Hollow with five other top 10 finishes. Winner at the Summit club last year, which was also a Fazio design. Rory is able to dominate these layouts with his long time and time again. I have a feeling it will be no different this week.
Other than a missed cut at St. Jude, his worst result worldwide dating back to the Masters has been T19. We are talking about the highest floor in golf. I don’t have a particular reason to fade Rahm, but we are getting the best golfer on the planet on a great course fit at -130. I will take that every day.
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