Well, it’s the end of the road. My season didn’t go as well as I hoped (it never does), but I enjoy this game and look forward to also losing some money on NFL survivor in a few weeks. Hope you are in a good postion to protect your lead or have an ace in the hole to make that one final move. Excited to look back at my plays from the season and reflect on how to be better next year.
Same purse as last week, some big money to be made and some shuffling of the standings to be sure.
-
Total Purse: $20 million
-
Winner’s Share: $3.6 million
Bombers
I know we have all these changes that are going to make accuracy a bit more important, but I still don’t see a way that distance doesn’t matter here. All the charts today are the whole of 2025, this is of course sorted by driving distance. With the firmer setup predicted for the most of the week, some of these guys legitimately may have short irons on their second shots even on the longest of the par 4s.
Par 4 Masters
Speaking of the par 4s, we have 12 of them this week due the reconfiguring. While I originally just sorted by 2025 par 4 scoring, that playoff at -27 is still gnawing at me, and even with some reduced scoring, I think you’re going to have to make hay all week to compete, so we filtered by par 4 birdie or better rate. Lo and behold, the guy that I thought might be a good fit last week here (Hall), is sitting on top with an 80 round sample.
Scoring in Bunches
Finally, similar to the par 4 scoring, I’m just straight up looking for guys who close on their opportunities. A bogey here or there isn’t going to matter if we find 5+ birdies every day, which is about what the top players rates imply here. Scoring certainly won’t reach -27 again, but I think at worst case, you’ll need to be in the high teens to have a shot at the trophy.
BMW Championship One and Done Suggestions
The line goes “this is a good setup for Scottie (because they all are)” but a spot where he and Rory can just rip it and let their overall ball striking lead them to makeable putts on what should be easy enough greens doesn’t bode well for the field. That said, you can get a little weird here if you need to chase.
If you’re leading: USE YOUR BEST PLAYER. You can’t take it with you.
Chasing, find a guy who has at least two of three traits to score here: Bombing, Elite long irons, and strong consistent putting.
I built a “mini model” using driving distance, overall proximity from 200+, and SG:putting to test this theory. Guys that fit the bill (not named Scottie or Rory):
Ludvig Aberg
Cameron Young
Sam Burns
Kurt Kitayama
Akshay Bhatia
GOOD LUCK HAVE FUN!