Our BetSperts Golf staff has combed through the projections and available lines to identify our favorite bets for WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. These are our Best Bets for the weekend:
Shane Lowry, Group 16 Winner +220 (FanDuel)
Andy Molitor: People will point to a bad record in match play for Shane, but some of his most recent matches have been to Cantlay at the Ryder Cup, Rahm here last year, and the 2019 version of Patrick Reed, so I’m giving him a “strength of schedule” bump. His ball striking the past two weeks makes me think this number is a little generous in a group where he’ll be a nice favorite over Van Rooyan and Varner. Koepka as the favorite makes sense but, I’m more focused on his medium-term form (5 MC this season, 3 this calendar year) than the 65 he shot Sunday while out of contention and think the two men’s prices should be flipped. I like the Irishman to get things rolling and cash me out on Friday.
Xander Schauffele, Group 7 Winner +175 (DraftKings)
Ron Klos: According to my calculations, Schauffele has the second easiest path to winning his group. He possesses the all-around skills necessary to not only take down his group but to also win the entire tournament. His consistent play will keep him in every match, and his ability to sink putts on these tougher green complexes (ranked 11th in the field on difficult greens) along with his stellar tee-to-green play should allow him to make a deep run.
Dustin Johnson, Group 8 Winner +165 (DraftKings)
Ryan Noonan: The demise of Dustin Johnson has been a bit premature, and he’s been rounding into form heading into Augusta. He has a solid track record of match play success over his career and was the winner of this event back in 2017. His dust-up with Kevin Na here last year was one of the more memorable moments of the week, after Na scolded him for assuming his 3-inch putt was a gimmie, and not asking before picking up his ball. We’re just two weeks removed from DJ lighting Pete Dye’s signature course on fire in the final round at The PLAYERS, where Johnson shot 63 and cashed one of the best backdoor top 10’s of all time. Wedge play is crucial here, and Johnson’s 38.5% birdie or better rate (BoB%) from 125 yards and in, is the best rate in the field this week. There’s very little match play experience and a lot of volatility in his Group 8 peers, with Max Homa, Mac Hughes, and Matthew Wolffe. I’ll eat some chalk with DJ at +175 on FanDuel.
Richard Bland Over Bryson DeChambeau Rd 1 +165 (FanDuel)
John Daigle: (You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.) Regardless DeChambeau emerges from his wrist/Saudi-induced hiatus for Match Play, his first tournament since he missed the cut at Torrey Pines in January. Not only does Bland bring a competitive form fit for Austin Country Club into the week, sitting above-average in strokes gained on both Approach (+0.56) and Putting (+0.50) over the past month of the season, but has the benefit of squaring off against Bryson at less than 100%, per him:
“Am I going fully at it? No. Not even close. I won’t be able to go at it until probably Augusta time.”
Considering that this number has already plummeted to +140 at some spots, I’ll happily take my CLV and potentially ride the winnings into Thursday.
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