The WM Phoenix Open, aka “The People’s Open,” has changed drastically over the years and now fits perfectly as the best Super Bowl pregame show on Sunday afternoon. With over 700,000 in attendance, it’s equal parts tailgate party, Mardi Gras vibes, and golf all rolled into one four-day weekend in the Arizona desert. The best part is that we’re back to four rounds on one course, The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale, after three straight weeks of course rotation events.
TPC Scottsdale is a pretty straightforward track, but the event has grown in gravitas each year. Even though it’s no longer one of the Tour’s “Signature Events“ by name, it’s still drawing a solid field, led by the best player in the world and two-time WM Phoenix Open Champion, Scottie Scheffler.
This is a 7,266-yard par-71 track, a ball-strikers paradise at altitude. The final few holes at TPC Scottsdale make for an intriguing finish to each round, with risk-reward choices all over the back nine. The winning score has only been 20-under par three times in the past 18 years, and in the last five editions, the average score has been just -0.89 per round. Success at TPC Scottsdale has consistently favored elite drivers and skilled ball-strikers, and it’s also one of the venues with predictive course history. It’s not something that I lean into most weeks, but previous success here should be considered, and at least, should be used as a tie-breaker if you’re considering two golfers close in price or in a matchup.
You’ll hear and read about the importance of ‘Total Driving‘ this week, and while I don’t disagree, I want to poke a hole in the stat itself. Total Driving combines driving distance and driving accuracy, using a player’s rank in both stats to create a single metric. On the surface, I understand what it’s trying to do, but we can go about it differently.
My biggest issue with Total Driving is its reliance on driving accuracy. Driving accuracy is a binary stat that doesn’t truly tell us what we’re looking for this week in Scottsdale. The rough here is short and doesn’t present the field with many challenges, but with native desert brush and water in play on a handful of holes, we don’t want golfers who can’t control their driving accuracy, since this is not a place to club down. In the Rabbit Hole, we can look at Distance From the Edge of the Fairway (DFEF), which tells a far better story this week than driving accuracy.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the TPC Scottsdale stats page, and the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- Hybrid Total Driving (OTT Club – Driver Heavy: Driving Distance + DFEF)
- Going For the Green%
- SG: Ball-striking (Rolling form; L20 + L50 Rounds)
- SG: Ball-striking (OTT Club – Driver Heavy)
- SG: TPC Scottdale
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.
For outrights, I typically allot for 1.5 units, sometimes up to 2 for bigger events. I think this structure is important, and it helps steady the tides of outright betting. It prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win“ amount regardless of their outright price. Even with a relatively big card this week, I’m slightly under my 1.5 unit target.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
I’m taking a different approach this week because A) I’m absolutely terrified of Scottie Scheffler, and B) I’m not betting on him to win at his current price. So, I’m taking advantage of the “Without Scheffler“ markets this week for outrights. I’ll likely do something with Scheffler to win parlayed with the Super Bowl, which is not sound betting advice, I know.
Noonan’s WM Phoenix Open Outright Targets
Without Scottie Scheffler Market
Maverick McNealy (33/1)
I’m going back to the well on Maverick McNealy after backing him last week at Torrey Pines. He stumbled on Saturday, but finished 10th on the week, gaining strokes throughout the bag. There are some similarities between Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale, with distance being additive, and McNealy is trending up so far in 2026.
The sample is small, but you can see above that McNealy’s ball speed is up 2 mph so far in 2026. That added distance pairs well with his improved iron play and elite short game. McNealy was second in the field in proximity from 150-175 on Sunday at Torrey Pines, and he’s finished T6 and T9 the past two years in Scottsdale. This price on BetRivers is similar to his “With Scheffler“ price on most sportsbooks.
Kurt Kitayama (50/1)
The UNLV grad and Las Vegas native loves desert golf, and he’s going to model well whenever there’s an emphasis on premier ball-striking. He’s among the leaders in the field in driving distance, and he trails only “You Know Who“ in SG: T2G on courses with average, easy, and very scoring conditions over the past 12 months.
Kitayama ranks second in my model this week, and while putting is always his undoing, he’s gained strokes on the greens in eight of his 12 rounds played at TPC Scottsdale. His baseline putting numbers are painful to look at, but he’s ninth in Birdie or Better% over the past 12 months. We’re looking to pick a winner here, not someone to make the cut, so I like the putting upside when paired with his exceptional tee-to-green chops.
Pierceson Coody (50/1)
Pierceson and his brother Parker were much heralded prospects while at the University of Texas, and it looks like Pierceson is finally putting it all together. He started to show more consistency late last season, including a T3 at the 3M Open, a driver-heavy venue where Kurt Kitayama won, and a T2 last week at Torrey Pines.
Coody models very well, ranking among the top ten in SG: OTT on driver-heavy courses, Going for the Green%, Birdie or Better%, and Bogey Avoidance. He’s started the season with three straight T18 or better finishes, and this course sets up incredibly well for his game.
Michael Thorbjornsen (50/1)
I’m skill set stacking with my card this week. There are a lot of commonalities skill-wise here, and Michael Thorbjornsen fits right in. He’s an elite driver of the golf ball that was on display last week at Torrey Pines. Thorbjornsen finished T18 last week, but he gained an average of 2.24 strokes per round tee-to-green. The bumpy Poa Annua greens caused him fits, though.
Thorbjornsen trails only Pierceson Coody in SG: OTT on driver-heavy courses over the past 12 months, and while he’s struggled putting at times, he ranks inside the top ten in both Birdie or Better% and Bogey Avoidance. With the Patriots set to win another Super Bowl on Sunday night (no bias here at all), it’s only appropriate that the former Massachusetts native Thorbjornsen also finds the podium this week.
Rasmus Hojgaard (50/1)
This is an ideal setup for both Hojgaard twins, so I’m double-tapping them here. Let’s tackle Rasmus first. A strong end to his season on the DP World Tour earned him a spot on the European Ryder Cup team, and overall, he played well throughout the fall. He made eight starts between tours, finishing T23 or better in seven of the eight, including three runs inside the top 3.
Rasmus made his WMPO debut last season, finishing T12 but seventh in SG: Ball-striking. His putting has improved quite a bit of late, and he putted well here last season, too, gaining an average of 0.68 strokes per round. He’s a field-average putter over the course of his career, but that 0.00 rate has jumped up to 1.18 strokes per round over the past 24 rounds.
Nicolai Hojgaard (53/1)
Not only is it nearly impossible to tell the two of them apart, but Nicolai’s game is also eerily similar to Rasmus’s. Nicolai is a bit more consistent with his approach play and slightly more volatile on and around the greens, but we’re really splitting hairs here.
Nicolai did model better for me than his brother did, finishing fifth in my TPC Scottsdale model, likely driven by his recent approach play. He’s been best at driver-heavy venues that place a premium on ball-striking. I also think a huge edge lies in a player’s aggressiveness this week, with the Going for the Green% here being significantly higher (70.5%) than a standard PGA Tour stop (59%). This is a great example of how distance can affect scoring: an aggressive player’s third shot on a par-5 is a lag putt rather than a wedge from 80 yards out. Nicolai is second in this week’s field in GFG% over the past 12 months.
Tony Finau (100/1)
After a few years of not teeing it up in Scottsdale, Tony Finau is back at the WM Phoenix Open on the back of his T11 at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open. It was borderline Peak Finau at Torrey Pines. A masterclass in ball-striking, with his inability to consistently hole putts that kept him out of contention in the end.
Finau gained an average of 2.32 strokes ball-striking per round at last week’s event, his best mark in the past 12 months. The T11 was also his best finish since last year’s Genesis Invitational, also hosted at Torrey Pines South. Like Torrey Pines South, TPC Scottsdale is another track that excentuates Finau’s best traits. He finished T14 here in 2023’s Signature Event, the last time he was in the field in Scottsdale, and he lost in a playoff to Webb Simpson here back in 2020. Last season was a failure to launch, but he was still very good at the tail end of 2024, finishing T18 or better in 11 of 13 starts from Houston in March through the BMW Championship in late August, so we’re not that far removed from seeing Finau play well, even though it feels like it.
