The PLAYERS Championship is often referred to as the PGA Tour’s fifth major, but we can retire that moniker for now. The signature events and the top tier at LIV Golf have changed the landscape a bit, so until we have a resolution to the fracture among the professional game, I think we should step back from the ‘major’ talk and appreciate the event for what it is, because it’s great.
The PGA Tour’s best make their way to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, for a tremendous test of their all-around game. This event purse (4.5m to the winner!) is bigger than the Signature Event purses that we’ve seen so far this season, and the biggest of any event on Tour. Plus, the Golden Boy trophy is still one that the world’s best want on their mantle when it’s all said and done.
This traditional par-72 layout forces the field to be dialed in up and down the bag in order to have a chance to win come Sunday afternoon. Play your best for four days, and you’ll have a shot. There’s not one particular type of player or skill set that wins at TPC Sawgrass more than others, so for handicapping purposes, we’re taking a highly variant sport and adding another level of unpredictability to it. Fun!
Sawgrass offers a unique challenge where every type of player has a chance to win. While it may be a common sentiment, it truly rings true at Sawgrass: the player who demonstrates the most all-around skill while minimizing mistakes will celebrate with the trophy on Sunday.
This Pete Dye-designed layout brings water into play on 17 of the 18 holes and features numerous doglegs that limit a bomber’s advantage off the tee. Avoiding the water and the crooked numbers that come with it are keys to success this week. Knowing when and where to be aggressive for scoring opportunities goes a long way. You also have to be comfortable eating your vegetables on this course, accepting that par is a good score on most holes, and moving along.
Driving accuracy, preferably measured by Distance From The Edge of the Fairway (DFEF), is a common denominator when looking at past leaderboards for this event, as it is at other Pete Dye tracks like Harbour Town, TPC River Highlands, and Dye’s Stadium West. But this event moved from May to March (which happened in 2019) throws a wet blanket on that narrative a bit, in my opinion. Not only are the greens softer at this time of year, but the grabby nature of bermudagrass rough is mitigated a skosh in March due to the overseeding required at this time of the year. Missing the fairway or green is never ideal, but it’s less penal than it used to be because the unpredictable nature of the lie caused by the bermudagrass has decreased with the overseeding that March brings to a Florida golf course. It’s been quite dry in Florida of late, though, so we could see these greens play really firm and fast.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our research tools, the TPC Sawgrass course stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total (Last 2 Years, Strong Fields & Difficult Scoring Conditions)
- SG: APP (Last 36 Rounds)
- SG: Ball-striking (Difficult to gain OTT and APP)
- SG: Putting (Fast Greens)
- SG: Total (Comp Courses)
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game. My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database. It can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Utilize our Discord for up-to-the-minute lines and betting advice. My full card and live in-tournament bets will be posted there. Reach out if you need help getting started.
For outrights, I typically allot for 1.5 units, sometimes up to 2 for bigger events. I think this structure is important, and it helps steady the tides of outright betting. It prevents me from chasing, knowing that I’m positioned to profit if I can hit 5-6 outrights a season. It also helps me stake bets to a flat “to win” amount regardless of their outright price.
BetRivers was kind enough to void my Rory each-way ticket last week, a pleasant surprise, I’ll admit. With that, I’m a bit more aggressive with my PLAYERS Championship card because of it.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s PLAYERS Championship Outright Targets
Tommy Fleetwood (28/1)
I wish Tommy Fleetwood had played better at Bay Hill, but I’m not going to pretend that he’s not a top-tier golfer because he was out of sorts a bit at Arnie’s place. He’s made 13 starts worldwide since the start of the 2025 FedEx Cup Playoffs, winning twice with five other T4 or better finishes.
Fleetwood finished fourth in my model this week, performing well against tough fields in difficult scoring conditions.
Si Woo Kim (33/1)
Si Woo Kim ranked second in my model this week, and the gap between him and top-ranked Scottie Scheffler was tighter than the drop to third-ranked Russell Henley. It’s hard to ignore how well he’s playing of late, with nine T20 or better finishes in his past 11 PGA Tour starts, and he’s a perfect fit for Sawgrass.
Si Woo ranks first or second in a handful of stat categories for me this week, including SG: T2G with high water danger, SG: OTT on courses that aren’t driver-heavy, and scoring opportunities inside 5 and 15 feet over the past 36 rounds. He’s going to keep the ball in play off the tee, as well. We just need him to make a few putts. Working in our favor? Si Woo is +0.13 strokes putting on Poa Trivialis greens over the past two seasons, the only course where he’s gained on the field. I played his each-way out to seven places.
Russell Henley (40/1)
Longtime readers and listeners know I’m a sucker for Russell Henley. In general, I believe he’s better than he’s given credit for, but that’s changing a bit with his consistently strong play even against the toughest competition. He’s finished T20 or better in 12 of his past 13 starts, including a T2 at the Tour Championship. He’s also fared well on other Dye layouts, including a T2 at the Travelers and a T8 at Harbour Town in 2025.
Henley isn’t a sexy click. He lacks elite ball speed, but he keeps himself in the mix every week because he plays from the fairway, and his game has no weakness otherwise. His irons haven’t been quite as crisp the past few times out, but we’re getting a discount in the betting market because of it. Henley is typically in the high 20s and low 30s, but we’re seeing 40s on the board on Monday morning, and that’s too good to pass up.
Chris Gotterup (45/1)
Picking up a third win before the Masters would be quite a start to the 2026 season for Chris Gotterup, and I would’ve looked right past him if his future number (27 to 30/1) had held, but he’s playing too well to pass up at 45/1. I played the each-way offering here as well.
Gotterup doesn’t model particularly well because his longer-form stats aren’t great, but it’s clear he’s found something in his game he can rely on. Wins in Myrtle Beach, Scotland, Waialae, and Phoenix demand different things, which shows me he can adjust his game to fit each course’s demands, as other top-tier contenders do. Gotterup is second in SG: T2G in 2026, and he’s threading the needle of being aggressive while also keeping big numbers off his scorecard (3rd in double bogey avoidance).
Cameron Young (50/1)
Recent form is a pretty sizable tiebreaker for me this week, so I was encouraged to see Cameron Young back up his T7 at Riviera with a T3 last week at Bay Hill. Young lapped the field in SG: OTT at the Arnold Palmer, finishing among the top four in the field in all four rounds. He was third in ball-striking, and he really had the full bag working. He led the field in driving accuracy, GIR%, and Par-4 scoring average.
This was just too big a number, as you can see in current market prices. In an event that invites so much variance, I like leaning on someone who’s bringing their A-Game to TPC Sawgrass, and that’s where Cam Young is at right now. I also played this as an each-way bet.
Sepp Straka (80/1)
I love this setup for Sepp Straka, and I loved seeing him play well at Bay Hill after picking off a stale 80/1 on him earlier in the week. Straka’s at his best when there’s a high missed fairway penalty, and he can be rewarded for playing from the fairway when water danger lurks all over the place for the field.
His putter is a problem at times, as was the case on Sunday at Bay Hill, but he’s up an average of 0.23 strokes per round on Poa Trivialis greens over the past two seasons, his best rate on any surface. Straka’s finished T16 or better in three of his past four trips to TPC Sawgrass, and rates out sixth in the field in SG: Correlated Courses over the past two years. I’d still play a 60 or better if available.
Daniel Berger (100/1)
I grabbed this Daniel Berger number on Friday during the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the market has corrected. It’s funny, we want form until someone wins, and then once they win, well, they can’t go back-to-back, can they? I was thinking that was the case here, that my Berger 100/1 ticket would be dead after he wins at Bay Hill, but now that his Prevent Defense approach left him as the runner-up?
Overall, it’s hard not to be encouraged by how Daniel Berger played at Bay Hill. He’s added ball speed without sacrificing accuracy off the tee, and we can add him to the long list of golfers who’ve changed their trajectory on the greens after teaming up with putting coach Phil Kenyon. Berger’s last three starts at Sawgrass (T9, T13, and T20) are encouraging given his form. I don’t love chasing this current number into the 50’s, but I think a 6/1 T10 price is a great way to play it if you missed this future number.
