With one week left before the Masters and the year’s first major, the PGA Tour gathers at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio for the 103rd edition of the Valero Texas Open. This tournament was founded in 1922 and is the third longest-running event on the PGA Tour. It has been held in the San Antonio area since its origins and has relocated to numerous courses before finding its current home in 2010 when Adam Scott was victorious.
TPC San Antonio winds through the narrow corridors of the Cibolo Canyons, just north of Texas’s second most populous city. With fairways lined by brush and mature oak trees, tricky pin positions on elevated greens, one of the most challenging sets of par 5s on Tour, and gusty “Texas” winds, it plays as the 13th most demanding annual PGA course with golfers averaging +0.02 strokes per round. It’s a unique layout in that it balances narrow tree-lined alleys with wide fairways that provide strategic angles for approach shots.
There have been some shocking winners in the event in past years. From Corey Conners winning as a qualifier in 2019 to Andrew Landry at 200-1 in 2018 and Steven Bowditch triumphing in 2014 with odds of 350-1 – anything is possible on the leaderboard come Sunday. Ultimately, it’s a complete challenge from tee to green that doesn’t favor any specific type of player. Keeping the ball in play off the tee, hitting accurate approaches to the proper quadrant on the greens, and gaining strokes on the par 5s are among the ingredients needed for success.
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The Field
Over 25 golfers are playing this event as their warm-up for Augusta National. Even with each of the top-4 ranked players in the world sitting this one out, it includes one of the best overall fields ever in San Antonio with six of the top-16 players in the world including Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, and Patrick Cantlay. Other high-ranked and notable golfers include Maverick McNealy, Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, last year’s defending champion, Akshay Bhatia, and two-time winner here Corey Conners.
For golfers not yet into the Masters, it is the last chance players will have to make it into Augusta with the winner earning a spot in next week’s field. Motivation will be high for those not qualified. It’s a great week to chase unqualified golfers as eight of the past 12 winners were not originally in the Masters field. On the flip side, certain Masters participants have appeared to use this week for different purposes. Masters champion, Jordan Spieth won here in 2021 while another stalwart at Augusta National, Conners (three top-10s) has won twice in the last five years at TPC San Antonio. On a course with specific similarities to Augusta National, this week is also a great opportunity to work on shots in a competitive atmosphere to prepare for next week.
Past Winners & Odds
Most Important Stats For Success at the Valero Texas Open
- SG: APP
- Bogey Avoidance
- Par 5 Scoring
- Scrambling
- Good Drive %
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis)
- Distance From Edge of Fairway
- Sand Save %
- Proximity 50-125 yds
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Texas
- Course Length: Long
- Scoring Conditions: Difficult
- Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
- OTT Gain: Difficult
- OTT Club: Mixed
- Fairway Accuracy: Difficult
- APP Gain: Very Difficult
- GIR Accuracy: Difficult
- Rough Penalty: Low
- Par 5 Scoring: Difficult
- Sand Saves: Difficult
- Gain Putting > 15′: Difficult
Weather Forecast – San Antonio, TX
Valero Texas Open – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iALaSHxHOZXgDj21-MG5DM-DS_SZSGvPpudjdFnLxug/edit?usp=sharing
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Fleetwood +1800 (1.33u) – 365
- Berger +3500 (0.68u) – FD
- T. Kim +4500 (0.53u) – FD
- Burns +5000 (0.48u) – FD
- Woodland +5500 (0.43u) – FD
- Cam Young +11000 (0.21u) – FD
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