2025 Texas Children's Houston Open - Betting Preview

With the Florida Swing concluded, and only two weeks before the Masters, the PGA Tour heads west to Memorial Park Golf Course and the Houston Open. One of the country’s best public, municipal courses, Memorial Park is a long par 70 that measures 7,475 yards and can trace its origins back to 1912. The course features five par 3s and three par 5s. There are only 21 bunkers on the entire course and only four water danger holes. The defense of the course is the unique green complexes that feature plenty of undulations and short-grass runoffs with false fronts. “Nothing is hidden, it’s all out in front of you. But these green complexes can be treacherous if they don’t hit their target,” said course superintendent, Parker Henry.

Playing two-thirds of a stroke over par after its first four editions, Memorial Park emphasizes the importance of a well-rounded game. Due to the tournament moving from its fall slot (where it was held from 2020-2022) to the spring for last year’s event, the agronomy change has allowed the course to play less challenging. What was once a wall-to-wall bermudagrass course is now overseeded with Poa trivialis on the greens, with the biggest change – switching from penal 2.5″ Bermuda rough to the much easier and shorter 1.25″ ryegrass overseed. What was once one of the toughest non-major tee-to-green courses on Tour became less so thanks to this switch in turf necessitated by the tournament’s seasonal change. Players can take more aggressive shots coming out of the rough than in years past without having to worry about “fliers” or bad lies from the unpredictable Bermuda turf.

According to the data, and also the type of golfer that signs up to play here annually, this is one of the clearest “bomber” courses on the PGA Tour. Whether it’s past winners (Stephan Jaeger, Tony Finau, Carlos Ortiz), contenders (Scottie Scheffler, Dustin Johnson, Thomas Detry, Alejandro Tosti), or golfers who have played here all four previous tournaments (Taylor Pendrith, Wyndham Clark, Jason Day, Keith Mitchell, Luke List), players who crush the ball off the tee typically have a sizeable advantage at the second longest course on Tour.

The Field

Headlining the 144-player field are nine of the top-30 ranked players in the world led by No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Rory McIlroy. Other notables include Wyndham Clark, Houston resident Sahith Theegala, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im and Jason Day. Stephan Jaeger also returns to defend his 2024 title. McIlroy, who is currently the hottest player in the world, will be getting in his Augusta National prep this week as he makes his course debut. With two runner-up finishes in the last three years, Scheffler returns to Memorial Park looking for his first Houston Open victory.

There is also a decent mid-tier group of golfers in attendance this week including Si Woo Kim, Maverick McNealy, Aaron Rai, J.J. Spaun, Thomas Detry, and Taylor Pendrith. The first two Houston Open champions at Memorial Park, Carlos Ortiz and Jason Kokrak will again be absent this week as each is on the LIV Tour. There is a 36-hole cut on Friday with the top-65 and ties making it through to the weekend to compete for the $9.5 million purse.

Most Important Stats For Success at Memorial Park

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Scrambling (Short Grass)
Bogey Avoidance
Driving Distance
Good Drive %
Birdie or Better %
SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis/Overall)
Proximity 200+ yards
3-Putt AVD
SG: Total on Difficult Scoring courses

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Texas
Comp Courses: GC of Houston, Renaissance Club, Congaree, Quail Hollow, Augusta National, TPC Scottsdale, Riviera, Southern Hills, Bay Hill
Scoring Conditions: Difficult
Course Length: Very Long
Field Strength: Weak
Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
Green Size: Large
Rough Length: Short
OTT Club: Driver Heavy
Gain APP: Difficult
Gain ARG: Difficult
Scrambling Short Grass: Difficult
3-Putt AVD: Difficult

Weather Forecast – Houston, Texas

The Houston Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VTC6yWKqeh6gm0ncl8xpiabA-gEZeeK2KeWT-9QJS8A/edit?usp=sharing