The second week of the 2025 season keeps us in Hawaii, this time at Waialae Country Club for the first full-field event of the season. Handicapping early-season events when we have less relevant form data than we do in the spring and summer is a bit more of a feel thing than I’d like it to be. I prefer to lean on as much recent form data as possible, but we’re all in the same boat, so let’s work with what we have. I’ve had a Sunday sweat here for four consecutive seasons, getting Si Woo Kim over the finish line in 2023 while backing the bridesmaid in 2021 (Joaquin Niemann), 2022 (Russell Henley), and 2024 (Keegan Bradley).
We do know that course history matters here at Waialae, trailing only Augusta National in terms of predictive course history. According to Justin Ray, nine of the last 11 winners at the Sony Open played the previous week at The Sentry, and the cut rate for players who played the previous week at Kapalua has been around 80% over the past four years. Russell Henley’s 2013 win was the lone debutant winner in the past 19 stops at Waialae. That should help form our high-level thoughts this week as we dig into the field, with 36 golfers teeing it up for the second week in a row.
Nestled near Honolulu, Waialae Country Club is a par 70 measuring just 7,044 yards. While the ocean views are stunning, many holes are tucked inland, minimizing the impact of the trade winds. The early forecast is calling for windy conditions all week, so we’ll have to monitor that closely as the week goes on.
This tight, technical track favors accuracy over brute force. The fairways at Waialae are significantly narrower than the airport runways featured last week at Kapalua, but hitting the fairways here isn’t the skeleton key it was in years past. Having the ideal angle for your second shot is paramount, even more so than finding the fairway off the tee. As they were last week at Kapalua, the green complexes here are Bermudagrass this week, but that’s where the parallels end. These greens are firmer, smaller, and flatter than what the field saw last week.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the Waialae Country Club Course Stats, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
-Average SG: Total at Waialae CC, Last 5 Years
-SG: Total, Short and Very Short Courses
-SG: APP + Proximity from 150-175 Yards
-SG: Short Game, Bermuda
-SG: Correlary Courses (Sedgefield, Colonial, Harbour Town, and Sea Island Seaside)
-SG: Windy
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s Sony Open Outright Targets
Russell Henley (22/1, FanDuel)
I think it’s going to be hard to make a Rabbit Hole model this week that doesn’t have Russell Henley at or near the top of it. In fact, if you did, I advise that you look at the View Expert tab and, check out how the rest of us are building, and then start again. Now, that doesn’t mean that you need to bet him, but I’m a sucker for Henley’s game.
He’s a consistently strong ball-striker on these shorter courses due to his ability to keep the ball in play off the tee. Pair that with an elite mid-iron game, and Henley flashes the highest floor in this week’s field. He tops this field in average strokes gained per round at Waialae over the past five years and has multiple strong finishes at a number of this week’s corollary courses. The Georgia Bulldog plays his best golf on Bermuda grass as well, which is tip-to-tail along the Waialae property.
Keegan Bradley (25/1, DraftKings)
I was on Keegan here last year at a much larger number when he lost in the playoff to Grayson Murray, but I’m happy to go to the well this week. Bradley is coming off a solid week at Kapalua, finishing T15 and gaining strokes across the board. He’s modeling well because he didn’t play much in the fall, so his blistering performance at the BMW Championship in Castle Pines is still front and center, but he’s also played well at some of this week’s corollary courses, including a T2 last year at Colonial.
The putter can run hot and cold at times, but Bermuda is a surface that he’s fared well on historically. He’s also going to keep the ball in play off the tee, and he ranks 12th in this week’s field in proximity to the hole in the key 150-175-yard range. I wish the price were a little longer, but I was never passing on Keegan here.
Luke Clanton (40/1, DraftKings)
This price surprised me a lot. Now, that’s tough to say because I’m talking about a 21-year-old who’s never won on the PGA Tour event before, but I was happy to jump on Clanton at 40/1. I don’t like comparing young guys to veterans because it’s often unfair and, at times, sounds like hyperbole. But if you’re to comp Luke Clanton to golfers currently on Tour, I think you’ll land somewhere between Collin Morikawa and Victor Hovland.
The sample size is still small, but it’s nothing but impressive so far. Clanton’s ball-striking baseline is so high, with plus distance and accuracy off the tee and exceptional distance control with his mid-irons. He’s from the southeast as well, and playing college golf at Florida State, so it’s no surprise that his best putting performances to date have been on Bermuda grass. His short game is the only thing that doesn’t grade out well right now, but when you’re dialed in tee-to-green, that matters a lot less. When I re-ran my Rabbit Hole model and adjusted Clanton’s score because he was punished in the first run for not having any course history at Waialae, he came out on top.
Austin Eckroat (45/1, FanDuel)
I’ve been holding Austin Eckroat stock since 2022, and it’s been on a steady upward trajectory since I bought it. The two-time PGA Tour winner ranked fourth in my Rabbit Hole model this week, driven by his success on shorter tracks like Waialae. Over the past 12 months, Eckroat ranks second in this field in average strokes gained on short and very short golf courses, and he’s third if you extend the sample out to two years.
His around-the-green game is inconsistent, but I believe if you need to lean heavily on scrambling this week, you’re already out of it. He keeps the ball in play, ranking well in distance from the edge of the fairway and Good Drive%, and Bermuda is his best putting surface to date.
Michael Thorbjornsen (90/1 with 6-way E/W, BetRivers)
Like the Luke Clanton shout, this selection flies in the face of the course history and Kapalua trends that I touched on at the top. These elite top prospects come into play ready to go, and I believe that Michael Thorbjornsen’s game is well-suited for any course.
Moving forward, I think he’ll profile best on courses where length and accuracy off the tee are required, but that skill set translates to almost all courses, and that’s in line with how many pros have attacked Waialae in recent years. Though the sample is small, Thorbjornsen is tops in this field in proximity from 150-175 yards out from the fairway, which, at 28%, is the biggest gap between what we see at Waialae and an average PGA Tour event (19%). I took the placings on Thor with the hopes that he’s in the mix even if he’s unable to close.