2025 Sony Open – Betting Preview

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In the first full-field event of 2025, the PGA Tour hops Hawaiian islands for the second “Aloha Swing” event, going from Maui to O’ahu for the Sony Open, played at the classical Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. With legendary figures such as Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Lee Trevino, and Ben Crenshaw winning championships here, the course carries on still today, withstanding the test of time. Having hosted the Sony Open since 1965, it is the third oldest annual course on Tour, only behind Colonial Country Club and Pebble Beach Golf Links.

Waialae CC is a shot-makers golf course distinguished by its narrow corridors, sharp doglegs, unpredictable Bermuda rough, and firm greens. It is a positional track that has effectively neutralized any advantages held by bombers off the tee. This week is about strategy, position, and shot-making on a tight and flat course. In the words of Kevin Kisner, “I like that it’s a shot-maker’s golf course. It’s a shorter, ball-striker’s paradise. You’ve got to play to certain spots. I think it’s Point A to Point B and make some putts.” This is why we typically see the same type of player (shorter-hitting ball-striker with a quality short game) succeed here year after year.

Coming off four rounds at the Plantation Course at Kapalua will present quite the contrast with the completely divergent Waialae CC. While Kapalua has enormous slopes and is the toughest walk in golf, Waialae is one of the flattest courses on Tour and is perhaps the easiest walk. The sizes of both courses are also completely different. Whereas Kapalua has massively wide fairways, Waialae has tight tree-lined corridors. The greens are also dissimilar from each other. Kapalua’s are much bigger with more slope and grain while Waialae’s are smaller, flatter, and easier to make putts.

While not a complete birdie-fest, minus the wind-blown 2020 event, the average winning score over the past five tournaments has been 20-under par. It’s a course where quality shots can lead to birdies on almost every hole. But if you are in the rough or out of position, scrambling for par can be a challenge.

The Field

Around half the field from Kapalua will island-hop to Oahu, but most of the 144 players are making their first official start of the year. As the course trends show, those who did not play last week need to shake off the competitive rust and will be slightly disadvantaged. Past performance at Waialae is significant this week as it’s the ninth most predictive out of any course on Tour.

While not the star-studded event we saw at Kapalua, this will still be one of the strongest Sony Open fields ever with 20 of the top 50 Official World Golf Rankings in attendance. The main headliners include Sahith Theegala, Brian Harman, Robert Macintyre, Keegan Bradley, Russell Henley, Tom Kim, Corey Conners, and last week’s winner and past Sony Open champion, Hideki Matsuyama.

Other past champions in the field include Si Woo Kim, Mat Kuchar, Patton Kizzire, Zach Johnson, and Ryan Palmer. Last year’s winner, Grayson Murray will be remembered this week following his death last May. The purse is $8,700,000 with a winner’s share north of $1.5 million. FedEx Cup points earned will go toward the Aon Swing 5, the path to the next signature event, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Past Winners & Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at Waialae Country Club

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Distance From Edge of Fairway (DFEF)
Par 4 BoB %
SG: Putting (Bermuda)
SG: Short/Less Than Driver courses
Proximity 125-200 yds
Waialae CC Course History
Good Drive %
Bogeys Avoided
SG: ARG

Unique Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Hawaii
Scoring Conditions: Easy
Course Length: Short/Very Short
Course Type: Coastal/Island
Field Size: Full Field
Par: 70
Greens Surface: Bermuda
Green Size: Large
Rough Surface: Bermuda
OTT Club Type: Mixed
Gain OTT: Easy
Gain APP: Very Easy
Gain ARG: Very Easy

Weather Forecast – Honolulu, Hawaii

Sony Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bkT04xb7Vz93-sldCKnO8u3Wq0ubyOCm-FwNtNF6Qdg/edit?usp=sharing