Here’s what I know. Or at least what I think I know.
Bethpage isn’t going to be set up like a US Open. The trend at Ryder Cups is for the ones hosted in the USA to shave down the rough off the fairways and make it a birdie-fest, whereas the Euro-hosted events tend to do the opposite. This was always an excellent strategy since Team USA usually featured 80% of the best bombers in the competition. That’s so much the case now. Which makes this setup strange to me. The closer players get to the green, the bigger advantage the US has in this competition. Whether it’s from 50-150 yards (if the rough isn’t grown up, then it’s basically all the same for proximity).
When you zoom in to playing from rough around the green, the best scrambles are almost exclusively American. And yes, we’ve added a new feature to the Rabbit Hole where you can differentiate between around the green shots (rough, fairway, sand).
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However, if you look at the distance, it’s Bryson, Cam Young, and a bunch of colorful flags.
It’s likely close enough from top to bottom that it’s not a substantial difference, but with this particular USA team, it’d likely be better for them to set it up tougher rather than easier. I’m sure they’ve thought about this harder than I have (I’d hope at least), I just found it interesting.
While I have you here, I want to know if having DP World Data would drive you to purchase the Rabbit Hole if you don’t already have it. You can tweet me at ThePME. It’s an expensive add for feeds and development, but I’d love to do it if the demand is there.
Now, you need to consider that we won’t know the official pairing until Thursday at 4 p.m. ET. If you’re playing DraftKings, knowing that information is critical because the entire strategy for any salary cap DFS game for Ryder Cup is to maximize the amount of matches you guys play. And when you see the opening foursome matchups, you can even style your team so that your players won’t be going against each other. No matter how sure you may be, everything before that announcement is speculation.
Now, since I am a professional speculator, here’s what I think on both for Friday Foursomes, and I feel better about my USA speculations than Europe.
USA
- Bryson/Young
- Scheffler/Henley
- Xander/Cantlay
- Morikawa/Burns
EUROPE
- Rahm/Hatton
- Rory/Fitzpatrick
- Fleetwood/MacIntyre
- Ludvig/Hovland
Of that group, I’d expect Scottie, Cantlay, and Xander to be run out in the afternoon regardless of the outcome. Ditto for Rahm, Hatton, Rory, and Fleetwood from the European side. How you attack the betting board will likely depend on how some of these fringier players perform out of the gate.
2025 Ryder Cup Picks Show
Mayo and Geoff Fienberg break down our best picks, betting angles, and a full preview of Team USA vs Team Europe. We covered outright winners, top point scorers, sleeper plays, and betting trends you need to know before placing your wagers. After four weeks of nonstop football show, it was exciting to talk to Geoff again about only golf. If you’re not HYPED for the Ryder Cup. You will be after consuming this show.
WATCH: Ryder Cup Picks, Best Bets & Full Preview
LISTEN ON APPLE: Ryder Cup Picks & Preview
WATCH/LISTEN ON SPOTIFY: Ryder Cup Picks & Preview
2025 Ryder Cup Course
- Bethpage Balck
- Yardage: 7,352
- Par: 70
- Greens: Poa Annua
- Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
- Number of Sand Bunkers: 76
- Number of Holes Water is in Play: 1
2025 Ryder Cup Bets
Matt Fitzpatrick Top Euro (+1575 Coolbet); Overall Points (+4000 DK); o1.75 Points (CB +100)
I’m all in on Matt Fitzpatrick, despite his horrendous record. Very sneakily (or not if you’ve been paying attention), Fitz has reverted back to his 2022 form to end the summer. Since the US Open, he’s vaulted back inside the world’s Top 30, surging from outside the Top 75 with his string of consistent play.
He’s posted seven Top 10s in his past nine starts and continued playing in Europe after the FedEx playoffs, finishing no worse than 6th in any of his three starts. During this current run of the past three months, he’s Top 5 in both putting and around the green, and while still lacking in wedge play, has gotten his distance back up and returned to his peak from 175 and beyond. It really makes him an optimal alternate shot partner if he keeps it up. And none of those stats include his fantastic DPWT numbers. He won his major in the north east at a similar style course and may get a chance to play in foursomes to kick off the event. If he can win that opening match, we may get four sessions out of him.
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Collin Morikawa u1.75 points (+100 Coolbet)
It’s been a while since Morikawa has shown anything on the course, so it plays out one of two ways: Keegan chucks him out early to get him going, or they give him a four-ball Friday match. If he loses either, he’ll probably get buried, and we don’t see him again until singles.
Sepp Straka u1.25 Points (+100 Coolbet)
Straka hasn’t been playing much, and when he has, it hasn’t been good. If we don’t see him on Day 1 with Lowry in the alternate shot, he may only get two sessions for a max of two points for the entire event.
PENDING MATCHUPS RELEASED: Cantlay Top USA +1100; Overall Points (+1600 DK)
Cantlay is basically a lock to play four times as long as he doesn’t absolutely suck all day Friday. The only thing I’m waiting for is to see if he’s opposite Fitzpatrick on Friday morning. If he isn’t (Not to say he won’t be at some point, but I simply cannot know that), I’ll fire at Top American and Top Overall Points. Just need Scottie to get upset somewhere and we’re in business.
RYDER CUP WINNER: TEAM EUROPE +175
These teams look pretty even on paper entering the Ryder Cup, and an extra 75 cents seems lofty solely because it’s in the USA. Should the USA be favored? Yes. But by this much? No.