With the “West Coast Swing” concluded, the PGA Tour heads south of the border for the Mexico Open. Dating back to 1944, the Mexico Open has quite a historical past and has been considered Mexico’s national championship. Located a few miles off the Pacific coast near the town of Puerto Vallarta, the Vidanta Vallarta Resort (one of the highest-rated hotels in Mexico) and its “Signature Course” designed by Greg Norman will host this event for the fourth time. Jon Rahm won the inaugural tournament in 2022 at -17, followed by Tony Finau’s victory in 2023 at -24. Last year, easy scoring conditions continued with Jake Knapp winning at -19.
With its considerable length and lack of penal rough, it is a course that favors bombers off the tee and players that excel on approach from over 200 yards. Holes wind along the banks of the Ameca River and provide scenic views of the Sierra Madre mountains. Like most resort-style courses near the ocean, past success in coastal winds and familiarity with Paspalum grass will also significantly determine the winner.
The Field
As has been the case in the previous three editions, the overall strength of this field is quite weak. There is not a single top-25 player teeing it up this week and only five golfers ranked in the top-50 of the OWGR. With its position in the schedule (after a Signature event, pre-Florida swing) along with it being an international event on a “bombers” course, it is easy to see why few top-ranked players would choose to make the trip to Mexico.
The main headliners in this 132-player field are Akshay Bhatia, Aaron Rai, Stephen Jaeger, Kurt Kitayama, and Rasmus Hojgaard. Jake Knapp also returns to defend his 2024 Mexico Open title.
Most Important Stats For Success at Vidanta Vallarta
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Proximity 200+ yds
- Driving Distance/Carry Distance
- BoB%
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Long/Very Long Courses
- SG: Winds 15+ mph
- SG: Total – Paspalum
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Par 3
Unique Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Mexico
- Course Type: Coastal/Resort
- Scoring Conditions: Easy
- Course Length: Very Long
- Field Strength: Very Weak
- Greens Surface: Paspalum
- Greens Size: Large
- OTT Club Type: Driver Heavy
- Rough Penalty: Low
Weather Forecast – Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
Mexico Open – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uAeg9XSa_goHM54zSLfsNqdPAUsvpEC65AlSfQnHnt0/edit?usp=sharing
Just FYI, there’s a good amount of “international” players who don’t have enough PGA Tour rounds to be included in the model. Norgaard is the biggest one missing. I would rank him around #20 for this week.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Bhatia +1800 (1.3u) – FD
- Kitayama +2200 (1.05u) – FD
- Jaeger +3000 (0.80u) – FD
- N. Hojgaard +5500 (0.43u) – FD
- Hoey +9000 (0.26u) – Rivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Bhatia +190 (1u) – DK
Top 20
- R. Hojgaard +120 (1u) – Rivers
- Kitayama +125 (1u) – Rivers
- Stevens +138 (1u) – Rivers
- Jaeger +130 (1u) – DK
Top 30
- Smalley +110 (1u) – Rivers
- Knapp +120 (1u) – DK
- N. Hojgaard +140 (1u) – Rivers
- van Rooyen +150 (1u) – Rivers
Top 40
- Rozner +115 (1u) – MGM
- Hoey +115 (1u) – MGM
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images