It’s time to throw on a green mesh hat, crack open a few silver bullets, and turn on some country music to prepare for this week’s John Deere Classic. It’s a track that’s seen a wide array of skill sets take home the title over the years, but fairways and birdies are always the main ingredients. TPC Deere Run gets a bad wrap because the field often resembles a swing season event, but the course is more interesting than some of the other so-called birdie fests out there.
The John Deere Classic’s place on the calendar has shifted a bit after the Scottish Open became a co-sanctioned PGA Tour/DP World Tour event the week prior to The Open Championship. It’s impacted the field strength again, but I’ll take TPC Deere Run over Detroit Golf Club and TPC Twin Cities all day.
Located on the Illinois side of the Illinois/Iowa border along the Mississippi River, TPC Deere Run features wide sloping fairways, receptive bentgrass greens, and numerous elevation changes and doglegs. It is very scoreable for players who excel at strategically managing their way around the course instead of trying to overpower it. Winners have eclipsed the 18-under mark in each of the last 15 tournaments, so strong recent results from the low-scoring Travelers and Rocket Mortgage are a good place to start when looking at the betting board this week.
Even with generous and forgiving fairways that average over 36 yards wide, TPC Deere Run, a public par-71 course that measures 7,289 yards, is typically not a course that bombers can overpower. It is tree-lined but not tight. Laying up and avoiding dangerous areas is the best strategy for numerous holes. Straying from fairways is costly as the course is protected by the thick 4″ penal rough, strategic fairway bunkering, and creative mounding that causes uneven lies. With numerous doglegs, the ability to shape the ball off the tee is advantageous.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Also, don’t forget to check out our new research tools, the course stats page, along with the Tournament Cheat Sheet.
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Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG: Total (Scoring Conditions: Very Easy and Easy)
- SG: Total (Scoring Conditions: Very Easy and Easy+ Field Strength: Very Weak, Weak, and Average + Course Length: Very Short, Short, and Average)
- Rolling Approach Form (Last 8, 12, and 36 rounds)
- Birdie or Better%
- SG: Putting (Bent)
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pare down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s John Deere Classic Outright Targets
Denny McCarthy (28/1)
Denny McCarthy has played a lot of good golf this season, and he clearly loves coming to the Quad Cities because he’s finished no worse than T7 here in three consecutive starts. He’s yet to miss a cut this season, finishing T20 or better in eight of his 16 starts. He’s added distance while remaining accurate off the tee, and he’s having the best SG: Approach season of his career.
Some of Denny’s best 2025 results have come on longer courses against stronger fields, but even with the added distance off the tee this season, that’s not a profile I’d expect will continue. This is a great jumping-off point for his first career PGA Tour victory, and we know the ceiling outcomes are there for him on the greens, as he’s arguably the best putter on the PGA Tour.
Michael Thorbjornsen (35/1)
Just as he did during his T2 finish at the 2024 John Deere Classic, Michael Thorbjornsen gained throughout the bag last week in Detroit, missing the playoff by one shot. The week-in and week-out consistency isn’t there yet for the former top amateur in the world, but he’s repeatedly flashed the upside it takes to win on the PGA Tour, which is why many, myself included, are enamored with his game.
Thorbjornsen has six T8 or better finishes in his past 24 starts. He’s gained 3+ strokes ball-striking in 20% of his rounds over the past six starts, the second-highest rate in this week’s field. Marry his ball-striking ceiling with his ability to spike on the greens, and you understand why he’ll be one of the more popular bets this week.
Michael Kim (50/1)
Michael Kim‘s course history at TPC Deere Run is quite curious, but it’s not factoring into my handicap at all this week. Which you could’ve guessed since we’ve already gotten this far.
Kim, the winner of the 2018 John Deere Classic, has missed the cut here for four years in a row since his win. However, I am choosing to ignore that because Kim is arguably the most improved player on the PGA Tour this season, up nearly 0.8 strokes per round versus last season and a mind-numbing 1.7 strokes per round compared to his 2018 baseline performance.
I love using the Rabbit Hole to gain a broad view of the field while also getting hyper-specific at the same time. When I looked at who’s performed best in easy scoring conditions, on shorter golf courses, and against weak fields, Michael Kim tops the list (SG: Total, last nine months, min. 20 rounds). Doing this allows me to look at similar tests while eliminating the most difficult courses and strongest fields, which Kim has been participating in because of his status. Punishing Kim for a poor showing at the Truist while most of this week’s field was playing in Myrtle Beach that week doesn’t make much sense to me.
Nico Echavarria (60/1)
Swing-season darling Nico Echavarria caught my eye in Detroit after leading the field in SG: T2G on Sunday, gaining 4.34 strokes and finishing at 20-under par, two shots behind the leaders. If his putter was as dialed in as it normally is, he’s likely in that playoff and sitting in a very different place on this week’s odds board.
Leaning heavily on recent form and play while the scoring conditions are easier, Echavarria modeled very well for me, finishing fourth overall. His T6 in Detroit was his best finish since losing in a playoff to Nick Taylor back in January, and he flashed a ton of upside in the fall, winning the ZOZO before posting two other T6 or better finishes before turning the calendar to 2025. I’m banking on his elite putting chops here and hoping his tee-to-green form makes the trip from Detroit to the Quad Cities.
