The top 70 golfers in the FedExCup standings will travel to Tennessee for the FedEx St. Jude Championship for the opening playoff event of the PGA Tour’s season-long points competition. Nestled in the rolling countryside just southeast of Memphis sits TPC Southwind, which is hosting a playoff event for the fourth consecutive year.
It is a course that is infamous for its “water balls” and one that historically rewards the best ball-strikers in the world. In the most recent events played at this course, winners have included some of the most elite ball-strikers, including Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Abraham Ancer, and Daniel Berger (twice). TPC Southwind favors players who are both experienced and proficient on Bermuda grass, as its firm greens and penal rough thrive in the heat and humidity of the American South.
Ironically, the only eligible player not in attendance this week, Rory McIlroy, gave an excellent summation of what it takes to have success at TPC Southwind. “If you do hit it in the rough, it’s going to be hard to control your ball from there. So first thing, you put it in the fairway and put it in play, but I think the biggest thing around here is your approach play. I think there seems to be a lot of approach shots between 140 to 170 yards, so that’s a key distance this week. If you can get your pitching wedge through 7-iron dialed in and get those working really well, I think you’ll always have a good chance around this course.”
The Field
This week’s no-cut FedEx St. Jude Championship is the first of three FedEx Cup playoff events. After this week in Memphis, the top 50 move on to the BMW Championship, and ultimately, the top 30 advance to the Tour Championship in Atlanta.
With $20 million in prize money on the line, there’s plenty of incentive for the game’s best to treat this week as more than just a tune-up for the next two playoff events. For players outside the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings, a strong showing is critical, as points are quadrupled in the first two playoff tournaments—offering 2,000 points to the winner, while 70th place earns just 12.
The field comprises nearly all of golf’s elite. Rory McIlroy, ranked No. 2 in the FedEx Cup, elected not to play, reducing the field to 69 players. Headliners include: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Harris English, and Hideki Matsuyama (defending champion). The biggest names staying home who finished outside the top 70 include Davis Thompson, Gary Woodland, Nicolai Hojgaard, Keith Mitchell, and Adam Scott.
Past Winners & Odds
Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Southwind
*In order of importance
- SG: Approach
- Total Driving – DFEF
- SG: ARG/Scrambling (Bermuda)
- Proximity: 125-200
- SG: Par 4
- Birdie or Better %
- Good Drive % (Bermuda rough)
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Total (Bermuda rough/greens)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
Weather Forecast – Memphis, TN
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is based on the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is categorized into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ohPoLBnqKvgbbAQPa1ndRF3welllxJ3mrR-cHU5378E/edit?usp=sharing
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Schauffele +1800 (1.33u) – Rivers
- Henley +3000 (0.80u) – FD
- Morikawa +3500 (0.68u) – Rivers
- Hovland +3500 (0.68u) – FD
Finish Positions
Top 5
- Scheffler -121 (2u) – Rivers
Top 10
- Schauffele +180 (1u) – Rivers
Top 20
- Fitzpatrick +108 (1u) – Rivers
- Hovland +110 (1u) – MGM
- Morikawa +118 (1u) – Rivers
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images