Quail Hollow Club, host of the 2017 PGA Championship (and soon-to-be 2025 edition), serves as a worthy Signature Event tune-up for this week’s field, with 2024’s second major just one week away.
While we still await the arrival of ‘Baby Schef,’ the best player in the world, Scottie Scheffler, is notably absent this week. That creates a less paralyzing experience when approaching this week’s betting board for this 68-man, no-cut event.
Any course history pre-2017 is meaningless because the redesign after the 2016 event completely altered the course, especially the front 9. It’ll play 7,558 yards as a Par 71, which is one of the longest Par 71s played on the PGA Tour over the past decade. Elite tee-to-green play is required here, and the course favors distance off the tee. I’m also looking at corollary courses like Torrey Pines, Riviera, Bay Hill, and Copperhead because previous leaderboards have a decent amount of overlap with Quail Hollow.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Quail Hollow:
Measuring 7,558 yards, Quail Hollow is a tree-lined parkland par-71 layout. Similar to courses like Torrey Pines and Bay Hill, it presents a challenging combination of length and difficult scoring conditions. It is both the third longest and fifth toughest scoring course in the annual Tour rotation. It also has the sixth longest combined par 4s and par 5s on Tour.
From an agronomic standpoint, the base turf at Quail Hollow is 100% bermudagrass. In the fall of each year, groundskeepers seed the course with bermuda, a warm-weather grass, and with rye, a grass meant for colder seasons. Right after the conclusion of the Wells Fargo Championship, a herbicide is used to kill the ryegrass and let the bermuda grow for the summer.
With Charlotte being in the mid-Atlantic region, the beginning of May is still too cool for the bermuda to completely break through the overseed. According to the Director of Green and Grounds, Keith Wood, the greens, approaches, tees and fairways are around a 50/50 mix of overseed and the underlying bermuda. The rough is 90% overseed.
Because of how long the course plays, Quail Hollow is a strong test because of the distance demands placed off the tee. Shorter drivers who have accurate long-iron games can still compete here, but their path to success is much more difficult. While fairway accuracy is one of the lowest on Tour at only 54%, it has proven to not matter. The last four winners have averaged 314 yards off the tee, with none of them finishing in the top 40 in accuracy for the week. When McIlroy won in 2021, he finished second in driving distance and shockingly finished dead last out of 156 golfers in fairways gained.
On approach, Quail Hollow ranks as the 11th toughest ShotLink course on which to gain strokes. The average Greens in Regulation (GIR) rate over the past three events is 60.5% which is well below the Tour average of 65.8%. Much of the difficulty is due to the aforementioned firmness of the greens combined with 55% of approaches coming from 175+ yards.
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bMy top 5 key stats this week:
- SG: Total (difficult & very difficult scoring conditions)
- SG: T2G (long & very long courses)
- SG: APP
- Driving Distance
- SG: Total (corollary courses)
Noonan’s Wells Fargo Outright Picks
Wyndham Clark
Considering the year that Wyndham Clark has had, it’s hard to believe that his first win on Tour was here at Quail Hollow last spring. He’s won twice since, with all three of his career wins (Wells Fargo, U.S. Open, Pebble Beach) now coming against the strongest fields in golf. He also has three T3 or better finishes in his past five starts, and each of those (API, PLAYERS, and RBC Heritage) were Signature Events against strong fields.
As good as last year was for Clark, his 2024 is statistically better in every way. He is up year-over-year in all of the strokes-gained metrics, his distance is second to none, and he’d have multiple 2024 wins if not for Scottie Scheffler. I think there’s a clear ‘Big 4’ in this week’s field, and my model agrees. Not only is Wyndham Clark out there with the longest odds of the group, but he’s also sitting at the top of my model.
Hideki Matsuyama
We haven’t seen Hideki Matsuyama since his surprisingly poor performance at the Masters, where he finished T38 after entering in pristine form. He’s first in this loaded field in SG: T2G in 2024, and his spike in distance, back to his 2020 range, leads me to believe he’s healthier than he’s been in seasons past when his neck injury made him questionable week after week.
Matsuyama’s ability to dominate tee-to-green makes him viable anytime he’s teeing it up. He’s ninth in this week’s field in SG: Total against strong and very strong fields and fifth in SG: T2G on long and very long courses, two key components in play this week. Matsuyama already has a 2024 Signature Event win at a long Par-71 track with difficult scoring conditions and hard-to-hold greens after his dominant Sunday 62 at Riviera.
- To Win: 33/1 BetRivers
- Top 20: +110 DraftKings
Cameron Young
Speaking of Riviera Country Club, I wanted to look at other corollary courses this week to see who pops. Along with Riv, I think Torrey Pines, Copperhead, and Bay Hill fit the bill. Now, there are nuances that make each unique comparitively, but these courses put a premium on distance, long irons, and the scoring conditions at these venues are usually some of the more difficult on Tour. Over the past three years (minimum of 20 rounds played), Cam Young leads this week’s field in SG: T2G per round at these courses.
Young has finished T9 or better in five of his 11 starts this season and has earned a reputation for getting close but failing to seal the deal. Winning golf tournaments is difficult, but Young has mastered the contention part and won’t be able to shake the reputation until he wins. The truth is, no one will be surprised when he does. He finished T2 at his Wells Fargo debut, though it was the 2022 edition at TPC Potomac, one of Young’s seven T3 or better finishes over a 21-start stretch during his Rookie of the Year campaign. Young’s been one of the best long iron players on Tour this season, and his distance advantage should help here, too.
- To Win: 35/1 DraftKings
- Top 20: +115 DraftKings
Will Zalatoris
Monday morning outright bettors got a great price on Will Zalatoris, who came in at a discount after his withdrawal prior to last week’s Byron Nelson. His back was cited as the reason, but it turns out it was more a rest/scheduling thing with two critical events on tap, this week’s Signature Event followed by next week’s PGA Championship.
Unless you’re new to following the PGA Tour, you know that Will Zalatoris is at his best when the golf is the toughest. Long tracks, difficult scoring conditions, the strongest of fields, and Zalatoris thrives. He has three T9 or better finishes this season, and they’ve come at Augusta (T9), Bay Hill (T4), and Riviera (T2). He trails only Cam Young in SG: T2G at this week’s four corollary courses. The Wake Forest product has seen his fair share of Quail Hollow over the years.
- To Win: 60/1 BetRivers
- Top 20: +130 DraftKings
