The Waste Management Open, aka “The People’s Open,” has changed drastically over the years and now fits perfectly as the best Super Bowl pregame show on Sunday afternoon. With over 700,000 in attendance, its equal parts tailgate party, Mardi Gras vibes, and golf all rolled into one four-day weekend in the Arizona desert.
TPC Scottsdale is a pretty straightforward track, but the event has grown in gravitas each year. After being one of the Tour’s designated events in 2023, it’s sandwiched between Signature Events this year, which has brought the strength of the field down considerably, and that was prior to the Monday morning withdrawals of Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele.
We are back to normal tournament golf after three consecutive weeks of course rotations and pro-am setups. The No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) will be going for his third straight WM Phoenix Open victory at TPC Scottsdale. The last golfer to win three straight events on the PGA Tour was Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic from 2009-11.
This is a 7,266 yards par-71 track, a ball-strikers paradise at altitude. The final few holes at TPC Scottsdale make for an intriguing finish to each round, with risk-reward choices all over the back nine. A quick look at the most recent winners of this event shows a shift from a wide-open event to a place where the top of the board thrives. According to Data Golf, course history at TPC Scottsdale is the third-most predictive of any course on Tour, behind only Augusta National and Waialae CC, so previous success here should be considered, and at least, should be used as a tie-breaker if you’re considering two golfers close in price or in a matchup.
Handicapping early-season events when we have less relevant form data than we do in the spring and summer is a bit more of a feel thing than I’d like it to be. I’d prefer to lean on as much data as possible, but we’re all in the same boat, so let’s work with what we have. For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about TPC Scottsdale:
Total Driving will be one of the key stats this week as 14 of the last 15 winners here ranked inside the top 55 in Total Driving on the PGA Tour in the season of their victory (with an average rank of 35th out of 188). When handicapping this week, it’s also important to remember that while many elite drivers of the ball have had great success here, shorter, more accurate ball-strikers like Webb Simpson, J.T. Poston, and Matt Kuchar also have high finishes at TPC Scottsdale.
Along with Total Driving, ball-striking is the name of the game here in Scottsdale. With firm greens in play this week leading to a 16% relative increase in average proximity to the hole, the ability to hit approach shots close for birdie looks is vital. Because of this, a high ball flight is much preferred, which adds to the importance of distance of the tee because it means having shorter lofted irons into greens on approach shots.
Overall, TPC Scottsdale ranks in the middle of the pack in strokes gained approach difficulty. Last year, 62% of all approaches came from 125-200 yards, which is well above average. Every other approach range falls below the Tour norm. Related to the importance of “second shots” this week, 14 of the last 16 winners ranked inside the top 40 in Ball Striking on the PGA Tour in the season of their victory. Scottie Scheffler gained 9.5 strokes on approach in his victory here last year.
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There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bThis is likely going to be a heavier top-of-the-board finishing position bet week for me in place of outrights. If you’re like me and slightly terrified of Scottie Scheffler, perhaps the ‘Winner Without’ markets are a place to look this week. But let’s start there.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s Waste Management Betting Targets
Scottie Scheffler
This was a “to Scottie or not to Scottie?” week first thing Monday morning, and then Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele withdrew from the event before lunch. In the world of golf outright betting, I struggle to get to the top of the board, especially when that top-of-the-board price is hovering around 5/1 in a nearly full-field event. Personally, I structure my outright bets around a ‘to win’ range, which makes a +500 ticket quite expensive. But look. You want some sort of Scheffler exposure here. He’s the two-time defending champ, who’s in a class by himself when it comes to ball-striking and tee-to-green skills.
Looking at the past 50 rounds played by everyone in the Waste Management field, and while you’re expecting to see Scottie Scheffler atop most of the strokes gained metrics, it’s wild to see just how far ahead he is of everyone else. This is sorted by SG: T2G.
It’s worth noting that he’s gained strokes putting at this event each of the past two years. After all, this is Super Bowl Week, so I wouldn’t begrudge anyone who wanted to get a little spicy with Scheffler bets this week.
Top 10: -134 BetRivers
Byeong Hun An
Ben An is one of the longest hitters on Tour, but his game has evolved beyond that over the past year, and he’s playing some of the best golf of his career at the moment. He has four T4 or better finishes in his past eight starts, including both Hawaii starts this season. He ranks 10th in this week’s field in total strokes gained over the past 36 rounds played. His short game, both on and around the green, can make up for some of his inconsistent approach play, but he’s 11th in the field in overall proximity on approach. I like how his game fits what matters at TPC Scottsdale, and the opening price at 45/1 was my favorite play on the board when the odds opened on Monday morning.
To Win: 45/1 FanDuel
Top 20: +130 BetMGM
Akshay Bhatia
We shouldn’t be surprised when we see someone who just turned 22 last month take a major step forward, but the early returns on Akshay Bhatia’s broomstick putter are exceptional. After losing 0.58 strokes per round putting last season, Bhatia is gaining 1.02 strokes per round through four events this season. It’s a small sample and unsustainable, but the rest of his game is strong and ascending, so if he’s no longer a liability on the greens, he’s going to contend more.
He’s finished T14 or better in three of his past four starts and ranks out extremely well in numerous key metrics this week. His driver is a weapon with plus distance and accuracy. He ranks second in this week’s field in total driving over the past six months and 14th in Good drive, the two key off-the-tee metrics that I’m focusing on this week. His distance advantage will help him on the Par-5s this week, but this Par-71 layout offers an extra Par-4, and Bhatia ranks 12th in the field in Par-4 average over the past 36 rounds. A win might be a stretch, but he’s proving that the moment and environment aren’t too big for him. I expect we’ll see him show out well this week, and I love the finishing position market prices for him this week.
To Win: 75/1 PointsBet
Top 40: -110 BetRivers
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth – Top 20 (+225)
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets within the same finishing tier. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T20s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me. This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Their lifelong friendship comes to a head here as they make an appearance together in my top-20 parlay. Clearly, a seminal moment in the pairing’s history. The recent ball-striking form and past success here make them both appealing. The outright numbers are a bit shorter than I’d like, but I want both of them on my card this week, and this is a way to do it.
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