2024 Valspar Championship – Betting Preview

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After THE PLAYERS Championship and yet another Scottie Scheffler victory, the Florida Swing concludes with the Valspar Championship. While Innisbrook has four courses available to golfers, the Copperhead course is the one that has hosted this tournament since its inception on Tour in 2000.

Located just outside of Tampa in Palm Harbor, Florida, Innisbrook is one of the most underrated courses on the PGA Tour and encompasses one of the most complete tests of golf that players will face all year. Featuring narrow pine tree-lined fairways and rolling terrain combined with the surrounding lakes, proper positioning off the tee is paramount. Last year’s champion, Taylor Moore remarked, “This place is a ball-striker’s kind of paradise – fairway and green it to death.”

Players will be challenged as they navigate numerous tight doglegs, elevation changes, 74 well-positioned bunkers, six holes with water danger, rough approaching four inches, and difficult pin positions. Even though the course played under par in two of the past three years, it still ranks as the tenth most challenging annual course on Tour.

The number of trees and elevation changes make it feel as if one is in the hill country of North Carolina. As course architect, Larry Packard, said himself back in 2012, “When you play Copperhead you don’t even feel like you are in Florida. When you stand on the first hole and look down the fairway you are on an elevated tee and looking down the fairway lined with pine trees on both sides. It feels more like the Carolinas than Florida.”The makeup of the par-71 course is also far from traditional as there are five par-3s along with four par-5s. The course culminates at the infamous “Snake Pit” with two difficult par-4s sandwiched between the challenging par-3 17th.

Similar to TPC Sawgrass, positional golf is once again the name of the game as Innisbrook mitigates almost any advantage that bombers have off the tee. But this is not your typical “short” course. With 53% of approach shots coming from over 175 yards, players will need to be sharp with their long-distance approach game.

2013 winner, Kevin Streelman summed up the course quite well. “On this golf course, you’ll make some bogies pretty quickly. A lot of players would say it’s their favorite course in Florida that we play. They love it because of shot playability. You hit everything from 4-iron to driver off the tees, and shape them in both directions. You have par 5s you can go for and some you lay back. You have to be so exact where you leave it. There’s no let-up out there but it’s very fair at the same time. You got to man up and hit golf shots.”

The Field

The Valspar Championship kicks off the final three-event stretch leading up to the Masters. Coming off consecutive “Signature” events, many of the highest-ranked players will be resting and preparing on their own for the year’s first major. There is still a solid field this week as the 144-player event includes ten of the top-30 ranked players in the world including Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Brian Harman, Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth, and Keegan Bradley. Past Valspar champions in the field include last year’s winner, Taylor Moore, along with Adam Hadwin, Luke Donald and Gary Woodland.

Past Winners/Odds

Winning Trends

Betting Strategy

Any type of golfer can win and have success here at Innisbrook. There have been long-hitters, shorter hitters, scramblers, and shot-makers all win here. One thing for sure is that this course has been the home for premiere ball-strikers. From past winners Paul Casey and Charl Schwartzel to course horses like Justin Thomas and Sam Burns, each is known for being strong with their irons.

Other than last year’s champion, Taylor Moore, every single winner going back to 2015 has averaged at least +0.25 strokes on approach in the 16 rounds leading up to their win. With SG: Approach being so crucial this week, I am looking for players in good recent form, especially from 175+ yards.

With this being a course that favors “shot-shapers” due to all of the doglegs, and those that can work the ball both ways, players like Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth fit the course well and should continue to have success here.

In tough scoring conditions such as here at Innisbrook, players must take advantage of the four par-5s. Even though they are among the tougher par-5s on Tour they present a much better chance to score compared to the par-3s and par-4s, where they will simply be trying to survive with pars. And there has been a strong correlation between par-5 scoring and success at this event in past years.

With Driving Distance not being a factor this week, the ability to find fairways and position yourself in the numerous dogleg fairways will be crucial this week. With this in mind, Fairways Gained and Good Drive % will be important stats to analyze. And with so many greens being missed, scrambling for par will matter as well.

It appears that the wind will play a huge role in the outcome. (The model this week has the most accurate wind rankings for players that you will find anywhere.) It’s an ever-changing situation, but as of now, it appears that the PM/AM wave has a slight edge with wins calmer early on Friday. But winds are forecast to gust to over 20 mph for three of the rounds.

In conclusion, this will be a stern test of golf for all involved. Players who can exhibit patience, who have a track record of playing well in the wind, who can score on the par 5s, who can play boring golf, and simply grind out pars will have an advantage.

Most Important Stats For Success at Innisbrook

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Fairways Gained
Bogey Avoidance
Scrambling
Good Drive%
Par 5 Scoring
SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis/Overall)
Proximity 175+ yards
SG: OTT on Difficult OTT/Less Than Driver courses
SG: Total on Difficult Scoring courses

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Florida
Comp Courses: TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town, Riviera, Waialae, Colonial, TPC Southwind, TPC San Antonio
Scoring Conditions: Difficult/Very Difficult
Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
Rough Surface: Rye
Rough Length: Long
Gain OTT: Very Difficult
OTT Club Type: Less Than Driver
Fairway Accuracy: Difficult
Missed Fwy Penalty: High
Gain APP: Difficult
GIR Accuracy: Difficult
Par 5 Scoring: Difficult
Scrambling Rough: Difficult

Weather Forecast – Palm Harbor, Florida

Valspar Championship – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.