The PGA Tour’s 2024 season will conclude at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia with the finale of the FedExCup Playoffs. The top 30 golfers in the FedExCup standings will compete for a $25 million winning prize with players guaranteed at least $550,000 just for making it to the Tour Championship.
The oldest golf course in the city of Atlanta, East Lake is an urban track that was the home course of the legendary golfer Bobby Jones. Over the past year, it has undergone a complete restoration under the guidance of noted architect, Andrew Green. Even with substantial changes that emphasize it’s classical characteristics, East Lake remains a lush parkland layout with narrow fairways, difficult Bermuda rough, uneven lies, and fast greens.
Because of the nature of numerous holes, it is known as a “risk/reward” type of course, and is one of the more difficult ones on Tour with birdies typically tough to come by. It has been the permanent home of the Tour Championship since 2004, and it has been held at East Lake 22 times since 1998.
The key to performing well at East Lake remains the same: Keep the ball out of the penal Bermuda rough. There also might be an added edge towards quality “around the green” golfers as the shots into and around the green will offer more variety with the expanded hole locations and more options for recovery with added short-grass areas.
Unlike every other Tour event where all players start on a level playing field at even par, this week’s field will begin with staggered scores based on their position in the FedExCup points ranking list. Despite the scorn of most golf fans who despise the staggered start, this will be the sixth consecutive year of utilizing the “Starting Strokes” format which sees players start between 10-under and even par depending on their ranking. Starting with the first round on Thursday, Scottie Scheffler will start with a two-stroke lead over Xander Schauffele, down to as much as a 10-stroke lead over those in positions 26-30.
Certain players this week like Justin Thomas and Tom Hoge who are starting ten shots behind have no realistic chance of overtaking anyone near the top of the board. This limits the excitement and drama of this final event and typically makes it one of the more unwatchable golf tournaments of the year.
Most Important Stats For Success at East Lake Golf Club
*In order of importance
- Total Driving
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Approach
- Proximity: 200+
- SG: Par 4
- Driving Distance
- Good Drive % (Bermuda Rough)
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Bogey Avoidance
Weather Forecast – Atlanta, Georgia
TOUR Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Xander Schauffele +230 (2u) – DK
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Sam Burns -110 (1.1u) – FD
- Patrick Cantlay -105 (1.1u) – DK
- Sungjae Im +165 (1u) – Caesars
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images