2024 The Sentry - DraftKings Picks

Strategy

We are starting the year with a very unique golf tournament as this is a “no-cut” event with only 59 golfers in the field. There are only a few similar tournaments throughout the year with such few competitors including events like the Tour Championship and the Hero Open. That being said, there is definitely a strategy that has proven to be successful on the DFS streets related to tournaments such as this, and that is a “Stars and Scrubs” approach. With so many of the best players in the world in the field, this tournament produces a top-tier winner on most occasions.

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The words “upside” and “ceiling” are two of the words you will hear all the time related to these types of small-field, “no-cut” tournaments. With all golfers guaranteed to play four rounds, we want as many players with win equity in our lineups as possible. This might be as many as two or three players in the top salary tier. We then fill out the rest of our lineup with value plays that also have the upside to finish in the top 10. We also want aggressive players who tend to go on birdie streaks. Cheaper options like Adam Schenk and Tom Hoge are two names that immediately come to mind.

As for the upper tier, ownership is currently very spread out with everyone between Scottie Scheffler ($11.0K) and Max Homa ($9.7K) somewhere between 21-27%. Viktor Hovland is my main fade here. He only ranks 28th in the field on Easy Scoring courses since 2020 and does not have good history here never having finished better than 18th. Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Scottie Scheffler (in that order) are my favorite three from this range.

The other common strategy is a more balanced approach with maybe one top-tier golfer and five others in the mid-range. For this event, that is a viable strategy as the value tier does not have that many appealing options. The two highest-owned golfers in the field are in this range as both Collin Morikawa (32%) and Ludvig Aberg (29%) will be very popular. I would try not to play them together, and if you do, definitely include at least two low-owned players and/or leave money on the table. My favorites in this range are included in my core plays below.

Because of the high variance of this event, and the fact we have no idea which players have stayed sharp and which have gained 10 pounds and not even touched a golf club, it is very wise to scale back on the amount and types of contests you are playing. I would stick to single-entry and 3-max-type contests. With only 59 golfers to choose from, leaving money on the table is a smart option to ensure you don’t have a duplicate lineup. Finally, with no weather concerns and every golfer teeing off within the same four-hour window, there is not much of a time or weather-wave advantage to be had.

The Course and Important Stats

Due to several factors, Plantation has the well-deserved reputation of being one of the lower-scoring courses on Tour relative to par. Since beginning on Tour in 1999, the winning score is typically in the low-to-mid 20s under par. There have been outliers, of course, with Thomas and Smith’s victories that were separated by 20 strokes. Over the past five years, it has ranked as the easiest course on Tour at -3.08. While there are plenty of birdie and eagle opportunities, the course still offers plenty of potential challenges including coastal winds, uneven lies, and expansive tiered greens.

Past course history is one of the most important narratives for this week because it matters a lot. High-percentage trends in golf matter. A major theme of the winning trends at The Sentry is past playing history at Kapalua. As many PGA veterans have commented, experience matters at this course. No first-time player has won here since 2008. Out of the 40 players in this field who have played here before, there were only seven top 10s in their first appearance with an average finish position of 16th.

Patrick Cantlay spoke about how important experience is on this course by saying, “I think you have to hit more shots around this golf course. So I think there’s more half shots with the wind blowing 15 or 20 every day, and then there’s a lot more uphill or downhill dramatic shots that you have to hit.” In other words, playing in these windy conditions on uneven lies forces players to be able to hit all types of different shots. There are so many good players making their debut this week such as Tyrrell Hatton, Eric Cole, and Tommy Fleetwood. For the most part, I am fading each one of them because of this lack of experience.

The forecasted strength of the wind will be one of the most important things to monitor leading up to Thursday. As of now, the winds appear to be relatively moderate with gusts not higher than 20 mph on any day. If this forecast holds there could be another record-scoring performance as players will generate one birdie opportunity after another.

I am also strongly weighing Driving Distance over Driving Accuracy this week. With players able to pound driver on a majority of holes at Kapalua without much fear of hazards of any kind, players with added distance have an advantage, even if only a small one due to everyone getting excess rollout on their tee shots. As you see below, Driving Distance has the highest increase related to correlation to SG: Total.

With almost everyone having a good chance to hit the green, it will be the quality of the approach shot that will most likely define the result on each hole. Thus, SG: Approach is the most important stat this week. In my opinion, a player’s ability to manage approach flight and land the ball on the proper quadrant of these undulating greens so it can feed toward the hole will be the foremost factor in determining the winner.

With the threat of another 30-under winning score and essentially a putting contest, we want players who are birdie machines like the past two winners in Rahm and Cam Smith. I want to play golfers who have experience in handling these massive Bermuda greens and who succeed at three-putt avoidance. This is covered in my Scoring sub-model which incorporates all of the main scoring stats this week including Birdie or Better %, Proximity to the Hole, and SG: Par 5.

Most Important Stats For Success at the Plantation Course at Kapalua

Birdie or Better %
SG: APP
Proximity 50-125 yds
Par 5 Scoring
SG: Putting (Bermuda)
Bogey Avoidance
Proximity 200+ yds
3-Putt Avoidance
Driving Distance
SG: ARG

Weather Forecast – Honolua Bay, Maui, Hawaii

The Sentry – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.