2024 Shriners Children's Open – Betting Preview

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The PGA Tour stays out west moving from Utah to Las Vegas for its annual stop at TPC Summerlin, home of the Shriners Children’s Open. Located about 20 minutes west of the Las Vegas Strip at the base of the Red Rock Canyon, TPC Summerlin is a desert parkland course with around 2,700 feet of elevation.

TPC Summerlin features an exciting finishing stretch which includes a driveable par 4 and a reachable par 5 over water. The course meanders through canyons and arroyos and showcases numerous water holes and lush bentgrass greens. Known as one of the easiest courses on Tour, players must bring an aggressive mindset from the first tee on Thursday with the cut being at 4-under or better in four of the last five tournaments. That being said, the Bermuda rough is unpredictable and has a reputation for being one of the toughest courses on Tour in which to chip.

The Field

Compared to the first three events of the fall swing, many of the same players will tee it up once again this week in Nevada. There are a few big names who jump back into action after taking a week or more off including Eric Cole, Rickie Fowler, and Maverick McNealy.

The field strength does increase from “very weak” to just “weak” as there are a handful of players who finished inside the top 50 of this year’s FedEx Cup standings who return to play for the first time in two months including Taylor Pendrith, J.T. Poston, Davis Thompson, Cam Davis, Austin Eckroat, and Adam Hadwin. Playing for the first time since the Presidents Cup, Tom Kim also returns to action and looks to defend his consecutive titles here at TPC Summerlin. As for Stephen Jaeger who finished 33rd in the FedExCup standings and continues to play each week in the fall swing – the guy loves tournament golf.

The Shriners is the fourth of eight events on the FedExCup Fall schedule, which means players are jockeying for key spots in the “FedExCup Fall” standings over the coming weeks. It has been a breakthrough event for many different players who earned their first Tour victory here including Tiger Woods. There will be 132 golfers in the field with 500 FedExCup points and a two-year PGA Tour exemption on the line. The cut line on Friday will include the top 65 and ties.

Past Winners/Odds

Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Summerlin

*In order of importance

Birdie or Better %
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
SG: APP
SG: Easy Scoring Courses
SG: Par 4: 400-450
Good Drive %
Proximity: 100-150
Par 5 Scoring
SG: ARG (Bermuda)
Course History – TPC Summerlin

Weather Forecast – Las Vegas, NV

As of Wednesday morning, there appears to be a sizeable AM/PM wave advantage based on forecast wind speeds. Though it is not shown in the model below, I would heavily favor golfers with a morning tee time on Thursday.

Shriners Children’s Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PUJEVDx_g9KSHYydJDmnhAiRawyTdYWoJ2XDANrj0xs/edit?usp=sharing