2024 RBC Canadian Open - Betting Preview

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With only two weeks until the U.S. Open, the PGA Tour heads north of the border for the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club in Ancaster, Ontario. Located 50 miles south of Toronto, Hamilton has long been regarded as one of the top courses in Canada. The Canadian Open is one of the longest-running events on Tour with this year marking the 112th edition.

Designed by famed architect Harry Colt, the club has hosted six Canadian Opens, the last being in 2019 when Rory McIlroy shot 22-under to win by seven strokes. This year’s RBC Canadian Open will try to replicate the spectacle of last year’s event at Oakdale when Nick Taylor holed a 72-foot eagle putt on the fourth playoff hole to defeat Tommy Fleetwood.

Soon after the 2019 tournament ended, the club engaged architect Martin Ebert to renovate all three sets of nine holes on the property: the West, the South, and the East. The goal was to return the course to Colt’s original design principles with modernized Colt-inspired bunkers, a complete rebuild of all greens including surrounding areas, new tee boxes, and an updated irrigation system. Hundreds of trees have also been removed, opening up the still narrow playing corridors, enhancing the course’s visuals, and providing better airflow and angles for the sun to improve the turf quality. Said Ebert, “Our objective was to add the finishing touches to a brilliant routing on challenging terrain to complete Colt’s original vision for Hamilton.”

The par 70 parkland design features outstanding routing and a variety of interesting holes with dramatic elevation changes that keep the layout challenging despite its lack of length. It rewards strategic placement off-the-tee along with short-game skills on these nuanced green complexes. From the third hole on the West course (front nine), which plunges into a valley punctuated by a meandering stream, to the drama of the closing hole (South course), Hamilton remains a memorable challenge.

The Field

A full field of 156 golfers will partake in this year’s RBC Canadian Open. It is highlighted by world No. 3 Rory McIlroy who returns to Hamilton to defend his title here from 2019. He is among seven top-30 players in attendance which also includes Sahith Theegala, Tommy Fleetwood, Cameron Young, Tom Kim, Sam Burns, and last year’s winner and native Canadian, Nick Taylor. Other notables in the field include Shane Lowry, Akshay Bhatia, and Adam Scott. Along with Taylor, several top Canadian golfers are also playing including Corey Conners, Mackenzie Hughes, Taylor Pendrith, Adam Hadwin, and Adam Svensson.

Betting Thoughts

Even though Rory McIlroy ran away with this event at Hamilton back in 2019, the average round scored barely under par. Similar to a U.S. Open course, it demands all-around skills from every club in the bag. Fairways are narrow. The rough is lush and thick. There are dramatic elevation changes throughout several sections of the property. Six different tee shots are elevated and play downhill with the approach often playing back up into the green. Others play uphill. Distance control and proper yardage numbers will be vital for caddies this week.

There are short-grass collection areas around every hole, forcing players to be sharp with their chipping skills around these undulating greens. This course will present more of a test than people think. Nick Taylor won this event at Oakdale last year with a -17 score, and Hamilton is relatively more challenging. I predict a winning score of -15 this week.

Unless players have the length of a Rory McIlroy, positioning off the tee is crucial. And then it boils down to who can separate with their irons. I am weighing “Scrambling From Short Grass” heavier than average this week as I believe having the skill to chip off tight lies is a trait the winner must possess. Players who have shown the ability to spike with their putters (especially on bent greens) was also a huge part of my “SG: Putting” model this week. The “Rabbit Hole” is the only place to find both of those metrics. If you haven’t checked out the “Floor/Ceiling” metric yet, it allows you to view every SG category AND to combine it with any filter imaginable. This is huge for finding players with the most upside.

Without much actual course history for this event I also heavily weighted “Course Comps” in the model. There are several courses I have listed in the “Course Facts” graphic above that play very similar to Hamilton. Finally, with this being a par-70 course with only two par 5s on which to score, I love to analyze which players have had past success on these types of courses where they can’t rely on the par 5s to score. Using the “Rabbit Hole”, some players who eat up the par 5s but struggle on par 70 courses include Matti Schmid, Erik van Rooyen, Garrick Higgo, Mark Hubbard, Sam Stevens and Carl Yuan. On the flip side, golfers who thrive on par 70s and who don’t rely on par 5s include Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Adam Scott, Daniel Berger, Alex Noren, and Gary Woodland.

After much contemplation and research, I think this is the week Fleetwood finally gets his first PGA Tour victory. You could also play him more conservative for a top 10 (+190 on DraftKings). Whether it’s ball-striking or short-game, he doesn’t have any weaknesses. He’s come incredibly close in this event, losing in a playoff to Nick Taylor at Oakdale last year and finishing 6th in 2018. He has four top-13s in the last three months including a third-place finish at the Masters. He’s had recent spike weeks in each of the strokes gained categories, and on a course that fits his game, should have no trouble finishing near the top of the leaderboard once again.

Most Important Stats For Success at Hamilton Golf and Country Club

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Par 4 Scoring
Good Drive %
Distance From Edge of Fairway (DFEF)
Proximity 75-150 yds
Bogey Avoidance
SG: Less Than Driver Courses
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
Scrambling – Short Grass
Proximity 200+ yds

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Canada
Course Length: Short
Greens Surface: Bent
Rough Length: Long
Rough Surface: Bluegrass
Rough Penalty: High
OTT Club: Less Than Driver
Fairway Accuracy: Difficult
Par 3 Scoring: Difficult

Weather Forecast – Hamilton, Ontario, Canada

RBC Canadian Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18EoDVMTg5HfDEcvvJZgp-KweV6j45jvm6f-GqQcYcs0/edit?usp=sharing