2024 Procore Championship - Betting Preview

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Surrounded by the golden hills of the Napa Valley, the fall portion of the season begins out west with the Procore Championship (formerly the Fortinet Championship). California native, Sahith Theegala returns to defend his victory from last year. Before him, it was another California native, Max Homa who won in consecutive years. Played on the North course at the 1,200-acre property known as the Silverado Resort and Spa, this will be the eleventh year for the resort to host this event.

The North course at Silverado is one of the shortest on Tour and features extremely narrow tree-lined fairways, few hazards, non-penal rough, and tricky sloping greens. It is a very straightforward and scoreable course with a winning score that has averaged 17 under par since 2014.

This will be the second year that the PGA Tour will not start a new season in September. Rebranded as the “FedEx Cup Fall”, the eight events that will begin with the Procore Championship are a continuation of the season that just concluded at the Tour Championship. The main 2024 season officially finished a couple of weeks ago with the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings being eligible for all eight “Signature” events as well as any other regular event in 2025.

Those players who finished outside of the top 50 can play in these fall events to improve their standing heading into next season, which includes playing their way into the first two Signature events next year. At the end of the fall series the players who finish the calendar year in positions 51-60 will be exempt for those two tournaments.

The Field

As will be the case for the majority of these fall tournaments, the field strength is extremely weak. Overall, only five of the top 50 ranked players in the world will be in attendance. The main headliners include Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Max Homa, Corey Conners, and Min Woo Lee. Numerous players will look to sharpen their game in preparation for the Presidents Cup which is two weeks away including each of the players listed above along with Mackenzie Hughes.

Most Important Stats For Success at Silverado (North)

*In order of importance

SG: Approach
Par 5 Scoring
SG: ARG/Scrambling
Driving Distance
SG: Par 4: 400-450
Birdie or Better %
Proximity: 75-150
Bogey Avoidance
SG: Putting (Bermuda)
Course History – Silverado (North)

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: West
Course Length: Short/Very Short
Field Strength: Weak
Field Size: Ful Field
Event Type: Fall Swing
Greens Size: Small
Architect: Robert Trent Jones
Greens Surface: Bent/Poa
Fairway Accuracy: Difficult
OTT Club: Less Than Driver

Procore Championship – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13ixvYKtopPxfOpltQRwL-6hppSG8ll1pWQG0SVorIpQ/edit?usp=sharing